StockFetcher Forums · Filter Exchange · Anyone uses Connor's High Probability ETF Trading?<< 1 2 3 4 >>Post Follow-up
ultra5150
15 posts
msg #83822
Ignore ultra5150
12/4/2009 11:12:39 AM

Just wondering if anyone has filters based on Conner's book on high probability ETF trading? I read the book and he backtest all his strategy with high % success rate (over 75%).

TheAnalyst13
2 posts
msg #83827
Ignore TheAnalyst13
12/4/2009 11:25:34 AM

Connor claims alot.

BarTune1
404 posts
msg #83862
Ignore BarTune1
12/4/2009 4:54:57 PM

Well, if you have the book, the rules are pretty simple. Try scaling into TIP like I did today at the close ....

ultra5150
15 posts
msg #83876
Ignore ultra5150
12/5/2009 2:10:29 AM

I would like to create filters for some of his strategies on SF if at all possible.

davesaint86
268 posts
msg #84259
Ignore davesaint86
12/11/2009 6:13:25 PM

Yes. I actually made my first trades using their country etf recommendations. I bought EZA, EWZ, ILF, RSX and EWA on Wednesday right before the market closed. Four closed down 4 days in a row and EZA 5 days in a row. Yesterday I could have sold all for an average of about 1% gain. I sold all of them this morning during the gap up for a total gain of 1.43%.

My goal is to make 1-3% per trade. I did not have to scale into any of these trades. Before I read the book I was having success using TRO's RNR Filter and filtering stocks with a RSI(2) below 10 and then looking at the 2-4% column to see which ones have a high probability of gaining 2-4%. I would look at the charts also to eyeball how long on average once the stock's RSI(2) fell under 10 how long on average did it take to pop. Usually if a stock starts drifting lower at market open I do not buy it. If the futures are positives and the stock goes green right away I buy. I've also had luck buying good companies that miss earnings buy a minimal amount. They usually tank 8-12%. I look for the dead-cat bounces. A lot of them move right up at the open and you can make a quick 1-2% and sometimes they will keep on tanking. I bought LNCE about a month ago and when it open it opened to low volume so I bought it. It drifting down a little and I scaled into the position by buying more shares. The next day I so for a 1.37% gain. I try to keep the losses to no more than 1-3%. My win rate is +70%.

Dave

chetron
2,817 posts
msg #84265
Ignore chetron
modified
12/11/2009 7:01:36 PM

DID CONNORS STEAL THIS CONCEPT FROM GIL BLAKE????????

added rsi(2) thingy....

Fetcher[
SET{VC1,CLOSE 1 DAY AGO}
SET{VC2,CLOSE 2 DAY AGO}
SET{VAR1,COUNT(CLOSE ABOVE VC1,1)}
SET{VAR2,COUNT(VC1 ABOVE VC2,1)}
SET{VAR3,VAR1 * VAR2}
SET{VAR4,COUNT(VAR1 ABOVE .5,100)}

SET{VAR7,COUNT(VAR3 ABOVE .5,100)}
SET{VAR8,VAR7 / VAR4}

ADD COLUMN VAR4
ADD COLUMN VAR7
ADD COLUMN VAR8

rsi(2) crossed above 50
VAR8 ABOVE 0
ETF
CLOSE ABOVE .1
VOLUME ABOVE 1000000
VAR4 ABOVE .5
VAR7 ABOVE .5
SORT COLUMN 7 DESCENDING
]



how about shorting....

Fetcher[
/* short version */
SET{VC1,CLOSE 1 DAY AGO}
SET{VC2,CLOSE 2 DAY AGO}
SET{VAR1,COUNT(CLOSE below VC1,1)}
SET{VAR2,COUNT(VC1 below VC2,1)}
SET{VAR3,VAR1 * VAR2}
SET{VAR4,COUNT(VAR1 ABOVE .5,100)}

SET{VAR7,COUNT(VAR3 ABOVE .5,100)}
SET{VAR8,VAR7 / VAR4}

ADD COLUMN VAR4
ADD COLUMN VAR7
ADD COLUMN VAR8

rsi(2) crossed below 50
VAR8 ABOVE 0
ETF
CLOSE ABOVE .1
VOLUME ABOVE 1000000
VAR4 ABOVE .5
VAR7 ABOVE .5
SORT COLUMN 7 DESCENDING

]



ALL TOGETHER.....


Fetcher[

/* ALL TOGETHER */
/* IN PROGRESS */

SET{VC1,CLOSE 1 DAY AGO}
SET{VC2,CLOSE 2 DAY AGO}
SET{VAR61,COUNT(CLOSE ABOVE VC1,1)}
SET{VAR62,COUNT(VC1 ABOVE VC2,1)}
SET{VAR63,VAR61 * VAR62}
SET{VAR64,COUNT(VAR61 ABOVE .5,100)}

SET{VAR67,COUNT(VAR63 ABOVE .5,100)}
SET{VAR68,VAR67 / VAR64}

ADD COLUMN VAR64
ADD COLUMN VAR67
ADD COLUMN VAR68

SET{VAR50,COUNT(rsi(2) crossed above 50,1)}
SET{VAR51,COUNT(VAR68 ABOVE .50,1)}
SET{VBUY,VAR50 * VAR51}



/* short version */

SET{VAR1,COUNT(CLOSE below VC1,1)}
SET{VAR2,COUNT(VC1 below VC2,1)}
SET{VAR3,VAR1 * VAR2}
SET{VAR4,COUNT(VAR1 ABOVE .5,100)}

SET{VAR7,COUNT(VAR3 ABOVE .5,100)}
SET{VAR8,VAR7 / VAR4}

ADD COLUMN VAR4
ADD COLUMN VAR7
ADD COLUMN VAR8

SET{VAR70,COUNT(rsi(2) crossed BELOW 50,1)}
SET{VAR71,COUNT(VAR8 ABOVE .50,1)}
SET{VSHORT,VAR70 * VAR71}

SET{VPLAYS,VSHORT + VBUY}

DRAW VSHORT ON PLOT VBUY

VPLAYS ABOVE .5
DO NOT DRAW VPLAYS



CLOSE ABOVE .1
VOLUME ABOVE 1000000


]






McGiles
1 posts
msg #84287
Ignore McGiles
12/11/2009 10:26:05 PM

Chet - can I find details on the filter you put up here?

BarTune1
404 posts
msg #84293
Ignore BarTune1
12/11/2009 11:29:22 PM

I traded 3 ETFs this past week based on low RSI(2) readings primarily - I bought EZA at 54.10 and got out at 55.43, bought OIH at 110.80 and got out at 113.82, still holding some TIP with an average cost of 104.50 - currently at 104.22 ...





chetron
2,817 posts
msg #84305
Ignore chetron
12/12/2009 9:37:22 AM

McGiles, ASK AWAY, I DO BETTER WITH YES/NO QUESTIONS. MULTIPLE ANSWER QUESTIONS AREN'T TOO BAD EITHER, BUT QUESTIONS THAT REQUIRE AN ESSAY RESPONSE, YOU ARE TAKING A RISK. = D

HTH

GLTY


drew9
171 posts
msg #84315
Ignore drew9
12/12/2009 11:59:41 AM

You may want to look at the Pro Shares and Direxion leveraged funds to trade this strategy. I have a watchlist that uses the leveraged funds choosing one to represent each niche (markets and countries etc). I have found that the many of the currency and commodity type funds do not behave very well and do not hold up well on the W/L%. Once you select a list of funds you can backtest each individually to see how they perform over the last year with your strategy. Just create a watchlist with that one ETF and keep changing the symbol. It is time consuming but I did this about 30 times and only kept those with over an 75% W/L% and those with a high average net profit. TIP is nice but the profit percentage is very small as it hardly moves. My portfolio of those 20 left for long trades now backtests for the last year with an 85% W/L% and average profit of 4.72%. Trades are exited using RSI(2) crossing 75 from below so it is usually only a few days. One thing I will also mention is that the backtest only works for the ETF from the date it became available. Many of these leveraged funds are quite new. If you try and go back a year on one that has been around for 6 months you will get no results. Look at the chart first and put in the date in the backtest that they began trading or there will be no results depending on how long you care to go back.

StockFetcher Forums · Filter Exchange · Anyone uses Connor's High Probability ETF Trading?<< 1 2 3 4 >>Post Follow-up

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