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gabestogie
79 posts
msg #80288
Ignore gabestogie
9/29/2009 2:27:25 PM

Kevin:
Looks like BJRI is ready to pop. Nice candle so far, slightly above avg. vol.,would like to see it heavier.
Gabe

Kevin_in_GA
4,541 posts
msg #80289
Ignore Kevin_in_GA
modified
9/29/2009 2:38:01 PM

Kevin:
Looks like BJRI is ready to pop. Nice candle so far, slightly above avg. vol.,would like to see it heavier.
Gabe
++++++++

Not sure if it will go much higher today - it seems stuck at around 15 since 10 AM. I was in at 15.59, so of course I am hopeful it will make a move today (or soon, not in a rush).

Best mover of the day by far is FHCO - up 4.55% right now.

EDIT: END OF DAY - THE CLEAR WINNER WAS CRGN (UP 6.77%).

Kevin

Kevin_in_GA
4,541 posts
msg #80351
Ignore Kevin_in_GA
9/30/2009 8:39:26 AM

Heads up on ICON - they lowered FY guidance, and in premarket it looks ugly. This from AP about 15 minutes ago:

"The company reduced its full-year revenue guidance to a range of approximately $215 million to $220 million. Its previous outlook was for sales of $223 million to $230 million.

Analysts expect 2009 revenue of $229.9 million.

For the third quarter, Iconix forecasts adjusted earnings of about 26 cents to 28 cents per share with revenue in a range of approximately $53 million to $56 million.

Analysts predict third-quarter profit of 36 cents per share on revenue of $61.8 million.

In premarket trading, Iconix shares fell $2.50, or 16 percent, to $13.30.



ryansutton
1 posts
msg #80401
Ignore ryansutton
9/30/2009 4:39:43 PM

Kevin, thanks for taking the time to post your original ETF trading ideas as well as the IBD stock BB strategy. I wish I had discovered this discussion before attempting my first trades!!!!!

I am brand new to buying stocks and still learning the ropes. I appreciate your strategy as I do not have $25k to day trade. Maybe some day I can play the game like TRO, Chetron, muddy, 13th floor, etc. For now, short term and swing trading look to be my best options.

You said you have been practicing the BB strategy for about a month. What changes or adjustments (if any) do you plan if SP, DJ, and NYSE trends turn bear? Would you simply reverse your scans to deal with the upper BB(16,2.50) and wait for confirmation with a red candle?

Thanks again for your time helping others.

Ryan in AZ

Kevin_in_GA
4,541 posts
msg #80406
Ignore Kevin_in_GA
9/30/2009 6:34:18 PM

You said you have been practicing the BB strategy for about a month. What changes or adjustments (if any) do you plan if SP, DJ, and NYSE trends turn bear? Would you simply reverse your scans to deal with the upper BB(16,2.50) and wait for confirmation with a red candle?
+++++++++++++++++++++

1. The main adjustment to this system made in response to a possible downturn is that I added the confirmation requirement (close above close 1 day ago), and that I am willing to let this confirmation take place several days after the close below the lower BB (hard to code,so I just keep track of stocks waiting for confirmation in a separate watchlist).

2. No. That can be done at any time - I can't short stocks right now, due to restrictions for trading in my 401k. However, that will work (you can easily backtest it to see). This is a long only strategy right now, and it does become a little more challenging to maintain discipline during a market downturn - however, you get to buy more stocks on pullbacks during those times, so it all works out OK I guess.

Kevin_in_GA
4,541 posts
msg #80407
Ignore Kevin_in_GA
9/30/2009 6:55:41 PM

Curagen (CRGN) and Celldex (CLDX) merger was approved this evening. CRGN stock (which closed at $1.47, up $0.05) is up another $0.06 after hours. At $1.53, it is up 15% since Monday (I bought it at $1.33 just before the close after its confirmation signal).

Since Curagen will become Celldex, each share of CRGN will be converted to 0.2739 shares of CLDX at the close tomorrow (CLDX was also up today, and is up AH as well). The conversion price was set as the 30 day average =$5.55 right now. That means CRGN will be (at a minimum) worth $1.52 tomorrow.

Kevin_in_GA
4,541 posts
msg #80410
Ignore Kevin_in_GA
modified
9/30/2009 7:09:27 PM



SELL signal for NUS - currently up +5.89% at today's close.

I'll put in a order to sell at the open tomorrow.

burns1971
16 posts
msg #80414
Ignore burns1971
9/30/2009 8:53:04 PM

Kevin,

Thanks for the valuable info on CRGN. I'll be entering a trailing stop for that one.

On another note, I've diverted from your method by adding a stop-loss of -10%, which came in very helpful with ICON today; my order was filled at about -13%.

Thank you for the time, detail, and care you are giving to this thread, especially by offering as current information as possible.

Bill

Kevin_in_GA
4,541 posts
msg #80415
Ignore Kevin_in_GA
9/30/2009 9:03:43 PM

Trailing stops don't work so well here - allow me to demonstrate:

CONFIRMATION BUY WITH NO TRAILING STOP 11/6/08 to 3/6/09:

There were 99 total stocks entered. Of those, 49 or 49.49% were complete and 50 or 50.51% were open.
Of the 49 completed trades, 47 trades or 95.92% resulted in a net gain.
Your average net change for completed trades was: 16.89%.
The average draw down of your approach was: -14.31%.
The average max profit of your approach was: 22.79%

The Reward/Risk ratio for this approach is: 44.28

Annualized Return on Investment (ROI): 247.14%, the ROI of ^SPX was: -86.13%.

CONFIRMATION BUY WITH 10% TRAILING STOP 11/6/08 to 3/6/09:

There were 120 total stocks entered. Of those, 97 or 80.83% were complete and 23 or 19.17% were open.
Of the 97 completed trades, 26 trades or 26.80% resulted in a net gain.
Your average net change for completed trades was: -2.42%.
The average draw down of your approach was: -10.72%.
The average max profit of your approach was: 9.85%

The Reward/Risk ratio for this approach is: 0.57

Annualized Return on Investment (ROI): -123.24%, the ROI of ^SPX was: -86.13%.

burns1971
16 posts
msg #80417
Ignore burns1971
9/30/2009 9:22:30 PM

Thank you for the examples. Perhaps I should rethink my trailing stop.

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