StockFetcher Forums · Filter Exchange · BOLLINGER BAND TRADING STRATEGY<< 1 ... 34 35 36 37 38 ... 39 >>Post Follow-up
allesf
10 posts
msg #82207
Ignore allesf
modified
11/1/2009 6:59:16 AM

Hello Kevin,
I am new to this site, but I would like to get advice to improve my trading style.
what is the subscription for IBD list in investors.com
and in real life I guess you would employ at least 10% stop loss in the event the trade goes against you rite?
cheers,
Alles

Kevin_in_GA
4,542 posts
msg #82218
Ignore Kevin_in_GA
11/1/2009 11:47:37 AM

Hello Kevin,
I am new to this site, but I would like to get advice to improve my trading style.
what is the subscription for IBD list in investors.com
and in real life I guess you would employ at least 10% stop loss in the event the trade goes against you rite?
cheers,
Alles
++++++++++++++
To subscribe to IBD, go to www.investors.com. It is NOT cheap. Easier to buy the paper every Monday for $3.

In real life, as I have indicated repeatedly throughout this thread, I DID NOT use stop losses trading this strategy. Backtesting has very compellingly indicated that this results in poorer performance for this strategy. However, if you want to try this method, trade it in whatever manner suits your needs and risk tolerance.

NOTE: I am currently out of almost all stocks, except for some volatility-based buys made late last week. I will continue to update this thread, but I no longer have investments in these stocks.



allesf
10 posts
msg #82252
Ignore allesf
modified
11/1/2009 9:12:31 PM

Hello Kevin,
Thanks for your help.Thats great
I Backtested(only 1 month period) your filter with slight modifications.
this is the result I got:
There were 23 total stocks entered. Of those, 2 or 8.70% were complete and 21 or 91.30% were open.
Of the 2 completed trades, 2 trades or 100.00%resulted in a net gain.
Your average net change for completed trades was: 20.00%.
The average draw down of your approach was: -4.75%.
The average max profit of your approach was: 20.73%
The Reward/Risk ratio for this approach is: 0.00

I don't quite understand what this means
If you could shed some light on this that would be great
cheers,
Alles

duke56468
683 posts
msg #82431
Ignore duke56468
11/4/2009 3:18:32 PM

Kevin have you given up on this strategy. I think it has merit with a little tweeking

Kevin_in_GA
4,542 posts
msg #82436
Ignore Kevin_in_GA
modified
11/4/2009 4:26:38 PM

Kevin have you given up on this strategy. I think it has merit with a little tweeking
+++++++++++++++++

Given up - no. Still trading it? Also no.

The approach has merit, I know that. But given the high volatility going on right now, it is hard to hold on to stocks (like STEC) when they plummet, even though that is what the strategy says to do.

This one works well in uptrending environments - it might benefit from a further selection of "stock is above its MA(50)" or something like that.

Right now I am paying more attention to volatility-based trading strategies - in on VIX spikes, out a few days later with a few percent gain. So far this has worked every time I have tried it lately, and the vast majority of the time my money is not at risk.

I'll return to this approach, but for now I am exploring a range of trading strategies to see which seems to work best for me.



duke56468
683 posts
msg #82449
Ignore duke56468
modified
11/4/2009 9:25:20 PM

Thanks I appreciate the response, I'm new to stockfetcher and am having a little trouble with the filter, my scan showed 0 stocks. Is this correct or am I doing something wrong?

Kevin_in_GA
4,542 posts
msg #82452
Ignore Kevin_in_GA
11/4/2009 9:50:31 PM

Make sure you have created watchlists for the IBD stocks.

As a quick check, remove that line from the filter and see if you get any hits ( I did this and got 42 hits). With the watchlists used, I only get three hits for today (GTS, TRLG, and STEC).

stratiG
147 posts
msg #82496
Ignore stratiG
11/5/2009 2:29:36 PM

Kevin,

Have you thought about daytrading/scalp this strategy? I have been working on BB above 16, 2.5 RSI>90 for
short possibilities. I'm still working on the entries, stops and exits, but this is what I have so far:

ENTRIES
GAPS

If GAPS DOWN wait for price to move in the direction of the gap--enter trade if price falls below open
If GAP UP -enter trade if price moves in direction of gap

Today

I'm Watching WBMD, HSIC, TRLG

I have gone back to Oct 27/09 and it looks promissing.

I'll follow up this post tonight my daughter is demanding my attention. Sorry.


stratiG



Kevin_in_GA
4,542 posts
msg #82498
Ignore Kevin_in_GA
11/5/2009 2:47:18 PM

11/5/2009 2:29:36 PM

Kevin,

Have you thought about daytrading/scalp this strategy? I have been working on BB above 16, 2.5 RSI>90 for
short possibilities. I'm still working on the entries, stops and exits, but this is what I have so far:

ENTRIES
GAPS

If GAPS DOWN wait for price to move in the direction of the gap--enter trade if price falls below open
If GAP UP -enter trade if price moves in direction of gap
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Yes. In fact I am going to start evaluating its potential for options plays as well. Still need to figure out the timing and which call or put to consider, though. In general this can be used to fade the gap on either a 1 day or several day timeframe. Obviously, look at TRO's MTC strategy as well - lots to learn there on when to enter a trade. He uses $0.10 above or below the open to set his trigger (and stop loss). Simple, effective, gotta like it.

Today

I'm Watching WBMD, HSIC, TRLG

I have gone back to Oct 27/09 and it looks promising.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
look at www.freestockcharts.com for intraday data to see how it would have worked. Lots of stocks could be used here (especially from last week).

I'll follow up this post tonight my daughter is demanding my attention. Sorry.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Take care of her first - backtesting can wait.


Kevin

Kevin_in_GA
4,542 posts
msg #82528
Ignore Kevin_in_GA
11/5/2009 8:00:48 PM

Trading this system - backtesting results for the last four months

I have been a little remiss in my daily posting of congfirmed buys and sells, and I have not been actively tracking all of the stocks that have been signaled (only those I had money in). To be more accurate as to how well this has played out over the last four months, here is the backtesting results:

Approach Name: BOLLINGER BAND CONFIRMATION BUY
Test started on 07/02/2009 ended on 11/05/2009, covering 88 days

Filter used:
close is above close 1 day ago
close 1 day ago was below lower bollinger bands(16,2.5) 1 day ago
close is above 1
and apply to watchlist(IBD1,IBD2,IBD3)
average volume(50) is above 50000


Trade Statistics

There were 122 total stocks entered. Of those, 41 or 33.61% were complete and 81 or 66.39% were open.
Of the 41 completed trades, 41 trades or 100.00% resulted in a net gain.
Your average net change for completed trades was: 17.32%.
The average draw down of your approach was: -3.02%.
The average max profit of your approach was: 19.58%
The Reward/Risk ratio for this approach is: 0.00 (technically infinite, since the denominator is zero)
Annualized Return on Investment (ROI): 246.67%, the ROI of ^SPX was: 44.30%.

Exit Statistics
Stop Loss was triggered 0 times or 0.00% of the time.
Stop Profit was triggered 27 times or 65.85% of the time.
Trailing Stop Loss was triggered 0 times or 0.00% of the time.
You held for the maximum period of time (0 days) 0 times or 0.00% of the time.
An exit trigger was executed 14 times or 34.15% of the time.

Equity Summary:
Total (Cash + Market): $104,961.93

A VERY modest profit seen here, which would be considerably less after trading costs. This is why the equity summary is really the best test of a filter's performance, rather than the annualized %ROI. The trading frequency is a little too high here for the profit - this averages at ~1-2 trades per day. on 163 trades (122 buys, 41 sells) @ say 7.50 per trade if you're lucky, trading costs were $1,220, or just under 25% of your profit.

StockFetcher Forums · Filter Exchange · BOLLINGER BAND TRADING STRATEGY<< 1 ... 34 35 36 37 38 ... 39 >>Post Follow-up

*** Disclaimer *** StockFetcher.com does not endorse or suggest any of the securities which are returned in any of the searches or filters. They are provided purely for informational and research purposes. StockFetcher.com does not recommend particular securities. StockFetcher.com, Vestyl Software, L.L.C. and involved content providers shall not be liable for any errors or delays in the content, or for any actions taken based on the content.


Copyright 2016 - Vestyl Software L.L.C.Terms of Service | License | Questions or comments? Contact Us
EOD Data sources: DDFPlus & CSI Data Quotes delayed during active market hours. Delay times are at least 15 mins for NASDAQ, 20 mins for NYSE and Amex. Delayed intraday data provided by DDFPlus