StockFetcher Forums · Filter Exchange · FADING THE GAP STATISTICS FILTER<< 1 2 3 4 5 ... 40 >>Post Follow-up
TheRumpledOne
6,362 posts
msg #45222
Ignore TheRumpledOne
6/23/2006 7:11:50 PM

pop to the top


guru_trader
485 posts
msg #45367
Ignore guru_trader
6/29/2006 2:38:59 PM

TRO:

The odds are in your favor if you "fade the gap". Stocks that fill the gap over 80% of the time are "cows ready for milking".

Just set your profit target slightly less than the gap and it's almost a "lock". Or trade it for even more profit. This is about as simple as it gets.

Remember, this just counts the fills... You can even make money if the gap doesn't fill all the way!

=======================================================

I'm doing the backtesting on this and I'd like to know:

When you say to set your profit target slightly less than the gap ...
1) Is the gap = "close 1 day ago - open" for a gap DOWN?
2) Would the "profit target" be slightly below the "close 1 day ago" for a gap DOWN?

3) I guess we need to factor in the time it takes to get filled ... what is a reasonable amount of time/ticks to get filled? I know that some brokerage services will allow you to "buy at open", but I'm wondering how much time/ticks to factor in when "selling".

4) Who do you use for your brokerage services?

5) Do you use money management for all your entry and exits on a daily basis? Are you using the system you posted on the other thread?


guru_trader
485 posts
msg #45377
Ignore guru_trader
6/29/2006 6:46:10 PM

Some initial observations based on my M$ Excel spreadsheet analysis of the "Fading the Gap" Strategy:

I have performed this analysis on various stocks and will post some results below. The selection of these stocks was partly random. Please recommend any stocks for analysis.

============================================================

Analysis of GOOG during the dates: 8/24/2004 through 6/28/2006

Note: This was not the best stock for looking at DOWN GAPS, but I will post results of other stocks soon

Out of 466 days traded ...
GOOG gapped up 299 times, or 64% of the time
GOOG gapped down 165 times, or 35% of the time
GOOG did not gap 2 times, or <1% of the time


Out of the 165 times (35%) GOOG gapped down, based on the day's HIGH, what happened ...
28% of the time GOOG completely filled the gap at the HIGH of the day (sometimes within minutes of opening, as TRO pointed out)
7% of the time GOOG partially filled the gap at the HIGH of the day
===
35% Total


If you simply bought GOOG at the OPEN of a down-gapped day and closed your position at the end of that day ...
14% of the time GOOG completely filled the gap at the CLOSE of the day = full gain
3% of the time GOOG partially filled the gap at the CLOSE of the day = partial gain
18% of the time GOOG closed down for the day with a loss = loss
===
35% Total


If you simply wanted to watch GOOG throughout a down-gapped day, here is what happened ...
14% of the time GOOG gapped down, filled the gap at the day's HIGH and closed above yesterday's CLOSE
2% of the time GOOG gapped down, filled the gap at the day's HIGH and closed between today's OPEN and yesterday's CLOSE
12% of the time GOOG gapped down, filled the gap at day's the HIGH and closed below the day's OPEN
1% of the time GOOG gapped down, partially filled the gap at the day's HIGH and closed between the day's OPEN and yesterday's CLOSE
6% of the time GOOG gapped down, partially filled the gap at the day's HIGH and closed below the day's OPEN
===
35% Total


TheRumpledOne
6,362 posts
msg #45386
Ignore TheRumpledOne
6/30/2006 4:16:00 AM

I'm doing the backtesting on this and I'd like to know:

When you say to set your profit target slightly less than the gap ...
1) Is the gap = "close 1 day ago - open" for a gap DOWN?

Yes.


2) Would the "profit target" be slightly below the "close 1 day ago" for a gap DOWN?

Yes.


3) I guess we need to factor in the time it takes to get filled ... what is a reasonable amount of time/ticks to get filled? I know that some brokerage services will allow you to "buy at open", but I'm wondering how much time/ticks to factor in when "selling".


Depends on the stock.

4) Who do you use for your brokerage services?

Ameritrade and Scottrade. Had TradeStation but they closed my account.


5) Do you use money management for all your entry and exits on a daily basis?

No. I scalp.

Are you using the system you posted on the other thread?

If you are talking about Milk The Cows... No, I had that automated on TradeStation. I need to get another direct access broker.


TheRumpledOne
6,362 posts
msg #45497
Ignore TheRumpledOne
7/6/2006 1:06:17 PM

POP TO THE TOP.


nikoschopen
2,824 posts
msg #45498
Ignore nikoschopen
7/6/2006 1:24:30 PM

TRO,

I haven't had time to browse the TradeStation forum lately, so I have very little understanding of how you got booted out altogether. Unless you have been self-elected as the next kingpin of Ponzi scheme or the like, it seems little too excessive that they actually banned you outright. I wonder if TradeStation even has such right?


shelupinin
120 posts
msg #45513
Ignore shelupinin
7/7/2006 7:54:45 AM

TRO, Whey closed your account? Why?
Do you know any other broker which has platform with built-in programming language? I tried to find such broker but found nothing :( They claims IB has easy API but anyway it takes a lot of time to learn API, I'd like to have a broker with easy to learn built-in scripting language. Any suggestions for such broker?
Alex


TheRumpledOne
6,362 posts
msg #45515
Ignore TheRumpledOne
7/7/2006 10:41:10 AM

I got booted because I started my own forum on yahoo!

Then I posted a few things that TS didn't like, Joe Nikolson, president of TradeStation's cell phone number, being one of them.

Many traders called and emailed asking for me to be reinstated.

Instead, they closed out my account because they can choose to NOT do business with anyone.

Sometimes the squeaky wheel gets the grease, sometimes it gets replaced!

But, their decision, was not "bottom line" oriented.

NeoTicker has seen an increase in business. So has EFX Group and MB Trading.

TradeStation has no idea what they started when they kicked me out!

Stay tuned...






nikoschopen
2,824 posts
msg #45518
Ignore nikoschopen
7/7/2006 11:51:54 AM

I hear that MB Trading provides a decent direct access. Being a former CyberTrader, I would recommend that you give them a try as well.

Well, TradeStation being what they are, you can't blame 'em. I would join the others in the great exodus to the land of (ahem, somewhere) with you at the helm, but I love my TradeStation too much to leave just yet. I wish you a good journey and a string of luck on ure new adventure vis--vis endeavor.


traderblues
195 posts
msg #45520
Ignore traderblues
7/7/2006 12:05:17 PM

I've also heard good things about MB Trading. They also offer FOREX.


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