StockFetcher Forums · Filter Exchange · For the trend traders<< 1 2 3 4 5 >>Post Follow-up
yepher
353 posts
msg #40174
Ignore yepher
1/12/2006 12:09:46 AM

I extended the Rainbow (MMA) filter that I posted some time ago here is the new verion:

Fetcher[
price above 60
and volume above 2000000

set{newPlot, cwma(close,3)} on plot price
and draw cwma(close,5) on plot price
and draw cwma(close,7) on plot price
and draw cwma(close,9) on plot price
and draw cwma(close,10) on plot price

and draw cwma(close,30) on plot price
and draw cwma(close,35) on plot price
and draw cwma(close,40) on plot price
and draw cwma(close,45) on plot price
and draw cwma(close,50) on plot price

and draw cwma(close,60) on plot price
and draw cwma(close,70) on plot price
and draw cwma(close,80) on plot price
and draw cwma(close,90) on plot price

and draw cwma(close,100) on plot price

and do not draw bollinger
]



It if fun to look at stocks like: AMH, BHI, GOOG, AAPL, TIE, FCX, EFA, etc...

I think this is a fairly useful tool if you have stock that are are trading long term and are trending.


maxreturn
745 posts
msg #40185
Ignore maxreturn
1/12/2006 11:51:38 AM

Yepher, nice contribution. Gives a very NICE visualization of longer term trends and the shorter term dips. Looking at Apple some excellent LT swing trades in the direction of the longer term trend could have been taken simply by waiting for dips into the cluster of longer term averages and then a price reversal. Nice visual tool!

QUESTION: These ma's are similar to the Guppy ema's but I believe your length's are different plus you use wma's. Have you experimented and found these to be optimal?

Regards
Max


alf44
2,025 posts
msg #40186
Ignore alf44
1/12/2006 12:18:17 PM

...I posted previously about "Guppy Multiple MAs" here :


http://www.stockfetcher.com/stockdb/fetcher?p=forum&sub=view&fid=1002&tid=31910

---------------

Regards,

alf44




maxreturn
745 posts
msg #40187
Ignore maxreturn
1/12/2006 1:19:20 PM

Thought it would be fun to look at the return of a January 70 call option on AAPL if you had bought it on 12/30. This was the day AAPL formed a bullish candlestick on strong volume and closed at 71.89 after price had declined into the uptrending MMA's. You could have bought a call option close to $4.30 near the close of that day. The price of the option has been as high as $14.80 since then.


yepher
353 posts
msg #40190
Ignore yepher
1/12/2006 2:11:43 PM

maxreturn,

>QUESTION: These ma's are similar to the Guppy ema's but I believe your length's are different plus you use wma's. Have you experimented and found these to be optimal?

Good Question, for me WMA seems to work well because it will not react quite as fast as the EMA. I feel that means it gives more confirmation about what the trend is really doing. And WMA gives clearer visual signals than a simple CMA. I used more/different samples than Daryl does so I can get a better sense of how severe a trend has been broken.

I have not used my values with the oscillator so I canít comment how that might effect itís results.

Alf,
Thanks for the post. Looks like RailWhore was really onto something there :) I wish SF would fix the link problem.

Here is another thread with the MMA as indicated by Daryl Guppy:
http://stockfetcher.com/stockdb/fetcher?sub=view&p=forum&fid=1002&tid=34384

Hope that helps,
-- Yepher



TheRumpledOne
6,359 posts
msg #40193
Ignore TheRumpledOne
1/12/2006 3:25:44 PM

Funny thing is... the fastest and slowest averages are the only ones that really matter!


yepher
353 posts
msg #40195
Ignore yepher
1/12/2006 3:53:14 PM

Avery,

I can agree with that depending on the definition of "matter". What matters to me is:

If building a mechanical scanning system than it would be much easier to only use the fastest of the slow set and the slowest of the fast set and just watch the crossovers.

For visuallly following/reading these charts than the MMA (for me) is easier to see even if you are looking at charts with a large number of samples.

-- Yepher


alf44
2,025 posts
msg #40201
Ignore alf44
1/12/2006 6:12:11 PM

"...Funny thing is... the fastest and slowest averages are the only ones that really matter!"

--------------

With all due respect, this statement completely misses the point of what the Guppy Multiple MAs show. The convergence of ALL the MAs...and, therefore ALL the various timeframes that are represented by the Multiple MAs clearly illustrates what is often referred to as a "Critical Point" in "Chaos Theory"...as well as periods of Positive and Negative Feedback in the Market !

The Market is essentially a Non-linear Complex Dynamic Feedback System. Like the weather...the Market is NOT predictable in the LONG TERM (although I'm sure some like to think it can be)...there are just too many variables ! Dynamic Feedback Systems are when what happened yesterday...effects what WILL happen today. (Don't even get me started on the "Butterfly Theory" ! LOL)

The Market (like ALL Complex Systems) exhibits both Negative and Positive Feedback ! When the Market is rising you are seeing Short, Intermediate and Long Term Cycles/Momentum become reinforcing loops...creating positive gains at each stage and each time-frame. This can create runaway, explosive Market moves ! This is Positive Feedback ! When the Market is falling or in a correction and investors/traders come to expect further losing days...they stop buying...and start selling ! This results in a decrease in demand which of course results in a further decline...and further selling ! Again you are seeing Short/Intermediate/Long Term Cycles and Momentum become reinforcing loops. This is ALSO Positive Feedback ! However, in both of these scenarios...at some point...prices WILL consolidate ! This consolidation can appear to be noise (ie. Negative Feedback). Eventually, a sort of equilibrium will be reached ! Or...

A "CRITICAL POINT" will be reached !

"Critical Points" occur during consolidation phases ! "Critical Points" occur when two DIFFERENT time frames converge ! With the Multiple MAs these two timeframes are represented...by the group of short-term MAs...and the group of long-term MAs ! Multiple Moving Averages clearly show when these TWO time frames have converged. Explosive moves can often come out of these Critical Points. When the Market moves out of this Critical Point...this equilibrium state...it pulls the Short/Intermediate/Long Term Cycles and Momentum up OR down together...creating guess what ?

POSITVE FEEDBACK !

The beauty...and the usefulness of observing these Multiple Moving Averages has NOTHING at all to do with individual Moving Average Crossovers (as Rumple suggests in his post) ! Forget about that stuff when viewing these things ! The REAL beauty of Multiple Moving Averages is in the way they illustrate...the interaction of the two timeframes that they represent and the way they illustrate...

POSITIVE FEEDBACK...

NEGATIVE FEEDBACK...

and...

CRITICAL POINTS !!!


All in my opinion of course !


Regards,

alf44



PS. MMAs are SO visually illustrative you could practically use them WITHOUT any price data on the chart...just the MMAs. LOL




TheRumpledOne
6,359 posts
msg #40204
Ignore TheRumpledOne
1/12/2006 7:58:16 PM

Alf...

The slowest/fastest MAs will always be on the OUTSIDE, that's what I meant when I said they are the only ones that really matter.

The rest are just "filler".

Understand?


alf44
2,025 posts
msg #40209
Ignore alf44
1/12/2006 9:05:29 PM

I "UNDERSTAND" !

YOU...on the other hand...DO NOT !

As I said..."YOU miss the point COMPLETELY"...when it comes to the whole concept of what Multiple Moving Averages REALLY are all about !!!

Now do you...UNDERSTAND ???


Regards,

alf44




StockFetcher Forums · Filter Exchange · For the trend traders<< 1 2 3 4 5 >>Post Follow-up

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