StockFetcher Forums · Filter Exchange · Forecast Oscillator<< 1 2 >>Post Follow-up
nikoschopen
2,824 posts
msg #40330
Ignore nikoschopen
1/16/2006 5:13:36 PM

As of yet, Forecast Oscillator isn't available here at StockFetcher. But watcha know, wait no more. It's here to stay, courtesy of Yepher & co. The following filter is based on Forecast Oscillator(18) that crossed above the zero line from below. Of course, you may change the numbers to suit ure need.

Fetcher[
set{lri18, lri(18) one day ago}
set{lrs18, lrs(18) one day ago}
set{tsf, lri18 + lrs18}
set{fo2, close - tsf}
set{fo1, fo2 divided by close}
set{Forecast.Oscillator, fo1 * 100}
Forecast.Oscillator crossed above 0

set{MA<3>, cema(Forecast.Oscillator, 3)}

AND draw Forecast.Oscillator
AND draw MA<3> on plot Forecast.Oscillator

price above 20
and avgvol(50) above 300000
]




riggs
313 posts
msg #40346
Ignore riggs
1/16/2006 11:22:39 PM

nikochopen -

Talk to us about this Oscillator. What makes it different than any other Oscillator? It looks like it does the same as CCI, RSI, and Chaikin's Oscillator. I'm a big fan of zero line Oscillators, but you usually only need one. Please tell us why & how it is different. Thanks in advance.

RIGGS.


nikoschopen
2,824 posts
msg #40350
Ignore nikoschopen
1/17/2006 12:14:17 AM

Riggs,

I thought you might ask, lol. I've been a long-time Linear Regression (LR)/Time Series Forcast user. While moving averages are a great tool, as has been greatly debated, it's efficacy is limited due to its slow-ass tendencies. LR, on the other hand, avoids this lag (so methinks) largely because, by definition, it attempts to explain a relationship using a straight line fit to the data and then extending that line to predict future values. At any rate, it served me quite well over the years.

Now to the forcast oscillator (FO). Developed by Tushar Chande, FO is an extension of the linear regression. It's above zero when the forecast price is greater than the actual price, and vice versa. In other words, prices that are persistently below the forecast price suggest lower prices ahead, and prices that are persistently above the forecast price suggest higher prices ahead.

How is FO then any different from any other indicator? Strictly speaking from experience, FO "seems to" lead other indicators. While I do use stochastics, CCI, and the like, one of the first indicators I check is the FO. However, as I already mentioned on another post ("CCI & Forecast Oscillator Package -- Does it Come with Satisfaction Guarantee?"), its power really shines when used in conjunction with other indicators, such as CCI or the stochastics.

On that line, allow me to give away my money-making gem. I've ALWAYS made money whenever the slow stoch(39,1) is in the overbought zone while the slow stoch(7,3) crawled itself outta oversold area. So, one day, to better spend my time forking out something more useful to ponder over, I wondered if the sky would hold up if the FO crosses above zeroline while the slow stoch(39,1) is meandering in the overbought zone... (Well, I ain't here to make you into a convert so go figure out for youself, <grin>)

Fetcher[
Slow Stochastics(39,1) Fast %K above 70

/* Or you may use the following to find stocks with stoch(39) that crossed above 70 within the last 5 days
set{SS39,count(Slow Stochastics(39,1) Fast %K above 70,5)}
ss39 above 0
*/

set{lri18, lri(18) one day ago}
set{lrs18, lrs(18) one day ago}
set{tsf, lri18 + lrs18}
set{fo2, close - tsf}r
set{fo1, fo2 divided by close}
set{Forecast.Oscillator, fo1 * 100}
Forecast.Oscillator crossed above 0

set{CEMA<7>, cema(Forecast.Oscillator, 7)}

draw Forecast.Oscillator
draw CEMA<7> on plot Forecast.Oscillator

price above 20
and avgvol(17) above 500000

set{volratio, volume / avgvol(17)}
set{%Vol, volratio * 100}

set{rtn1,price / price 5 days ago}
set{rtn2,rtn1 - 1}
set{rtn,rtn2 * 100}

add column %Vol
add column avgvol(17){AvgVol(17)}
add column rtn{5-day Rtn}
add column industry
sort column 5 descending
]




Note: 3-Day EMA has been added since Tushar Chande (the creator of forecast oscillator) suggested that plotting a 3-day MA trigger line of the FO will give early warnings of trend reversal. But having lost more money betting on this strategy, I eventually stumbled upon 7-day EMA, which is little more sane IMHO. Yes, it's little slower but it hasn't given me much sleepless nights due to crazy whipsaws either.


nikoschopen
2,824 posts
msg #40352
Ignore nikoschopen
1/17/2006 12:20:44 AM

typo detected on line 9 of the filter:

set{fo2, close - tsf}r

r at the end doesn't belong there.


TheRumpledOne
6,359 posts
msg #40359
Ignore TheRumpledOne
1/17/2006 9:52:34 AM

Fetcher[
Slow Stochastics(39,1) Fast %K above 70

/* Or you may use the following to find stocks with stoch(39) that crossed above 70 within the last 5 days
set{SS39,count(Slow Stochastics(39,1) Fast %K above 70,5)}
ss39 above 0
*/

set{lri18, lri(18) one day ago}
set{lrs18, lrs(18) one day ago}
set{tsf, lri18 + lrs18}
set{fo2, close - tsf}
set{fo1, fo2 divided by close}
set{Forecast.Oscillator, fo1 * 100}
Forecast.Oscillator crossed above 0

set{CEMA<7>, cema(Forecast.Oscillator, 7)}

draw Forecast.Oscillator
draw CEMA<7> on plot Forecast.Oscillator

price above 20
and avgvol(17) above 500000

set{volratio, volume / avgvol(17)}
set{%Vol, volratio * 100}

set{rtn1,price / price 5 days ago}
set{rtn2,rtn1 - 1}
set{rtn,rtn2 * 100}

add column %Vol
add column avgvol(17){AvgVol(17)}
add column rtn{5-day Rtn}
add column industry
sort column 5 descending

/* NORMALIZE accumulation distribution */

set{adval, INDPOSITION(accumulation distribution, 60) * 100 }

/* NORMALIZE momentum(12) */

set{moval, INDPOSITION(momentum(12), 60) * 100}

/* NORMALIZE rsi(2) */

set{rsval, RSI(2) }

/* NORMALIZE williams %r(10) */

set{wrval, INDPOSITION(williams %r(10), 60) * 100 }

add column wrval
add column adval
add column rsval
add column moval

/* DRAW THE MP RSIWLR CHART */

and draw wrval
and draw adval on plot wrval
and draw moval on plot wrval
and draw rsval on plot wrval
]



INTERESTING.


nikoschopen
2,824 posts
msg #40363
Ignore nikoschopen
1/17/2006 1:55:46 PM

TRO,

Thx for the addition. Just by looking at the high scores garnered from your parameters, I'm convinced even more now.


riggs
313 posts
msg #40502
Ignore riggs
1/20/2006 6:49:08 AM

"Convinced" of what? Massive overbought levels? Lol...And stocks flurting with the upper Linear Regression line? Yeah, I'm convinced of one thing....SELL THESE FRICKIN' STOCKS QUICK!!!! It doesn't even make for a nice shorting filter. LOL...But at least you're "convinced." ROFL!


alf44
2,025 posts
msg #40506
Ignore alf44
1/20/2006 9:55:17 AM

:8^X


nikoschopen
2,824 posts
msg #40507
Ignore nikoschopen
1/20/2006 12:57:39 PM

Despite all your ellipses, overinflated ego, & derogatory comments, there's this overriding caveat which Rumpie & co. has made perfectly clear to all us, which I regurgitate for your benefit: it's not what you trade, it's how you trade, stupid! So put up or shut up!


nikoschopen
2,824 posts
msg #40510
Ignore nikoschopen
1/20/2006 2:03:31 PM

Before this thread gets outta whack, I would like to set the facts straight. This thread was never about filter peddling. It was to bring the Forecast Oscillator to the StockFetcher community at large, since StockFetcher hasn't yet, and still don't officially, offer this indicator. It's no different from any other "new announcement" you would find in the Announcement page.

As far as my own filter is concerned, it was more or less offered by way of an exmple in response to Riggs' inquiry as to "what makes it different than any other Oscillator?" In the third paragraph of my second post, you would find the words "seems to" were enclosed in quotes along with my curiosity about replicating the same result as I had done using the stochastics with the forecast oscillator in the fourth paragraph.

In no way am I endorsing or imposing (that is, thrusting) the forecast oscillator as the one-size-fits-all cure to your trading dilemma, nor is it a holy grail to fleece other's money into you own pocket. It's just another indicator, that comes not with any guarantee of satisfaction. (No refunds available either!)


StockFetcher Forums · Filter Exchange · Forecast Oscillator<< 1 2 >>Post Follow-up

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