StockFetcher Forums · Filter Exchange · HOW TO KNOW IF MARKET IS GOING TO REVERSE DOWN<< 1 2 >>Post Follow-up
MARY4MONEY
806 posts
msg #80733
Ignore MARY4MONEY
10/6/2009 12:22:30 PM

just draw a bottom trend line using the 3-6 and 7-10 bottoms which were the weekly rsi-2 lows <10% on most of the indexes and stocks

karennma
6,829 posts
msg #80746
Ignore karennma
modified
10/6/2009 7:47:07 PM

Anybody got a chart?


heypa
283 posts
msg #80748
Ignore heypa
10/6/2009 8:44:18 PM

Karannma.
Look at a 1 year spy chart. A semi log chart recommended. I kinda think we need something else to confirm a reversal. We may have seen the top. Only time will tell. The trend line says only that it is possible. IMHO

trendscanner
265 posts
msg #80752
Ignore trendscanner
10/6/2009 9:42:44 PM

Not sure if this will work but here's a link to an SPX chart. The trendline from the Mar and Jul lows is being backtested now. If SPX pushes through it and closes above it tomorrow, the rally is probably good to go for a little while longer. If not, who knows.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p59044707496&a=180142406&listNum=-1


Kevin_in_GA
4,548 posts
msg #80762
Ignore Kevin_in_GA
10/7/2009 7:35:15 AM

Notice the bounce off the lower BB(16,2.5) and the 50 day MA?

Also, you are drawing your trend lines from the close on 3/9 and 7/10 - if you draw them from the intraday lows, we are currently above the trend line. Also, trend lines on log scale for price give a different result than ones drawn on linear scale (where the $SPX is well above either trend line).

karennma
6,829 posts
msg #80766
Ignore karennma
modified
10/7/2009 8:36:45 AM

Kevin:
"we are currently above the trend line. "
For example ...
Gotta chart?



decipherlinda
133 posts
msg #80779
Ignore decipherlinda
10/7/2009 12:51:05 PM

On a log scale chart, for the S&P500, we crossed below the trendline Thursday at close and have worked our way up to it over the last couple days. I believe this is the first time we've gone below the trendline since the March low. We're now right at the trend line hoping to cross above from below indicating for the short term we could go either way.

Whether we use a log scale chart or not, it's probably safer to go conservative for a day or two.

To check it out, go to stockcharts.com, SharpCharts, type in $SPX, change the date range to cover the last 8 months, hit update, then at the bottom of the chart hit "annotate". Draw the line from the lowest low to now. You may want to switch between "log" and not log by running as-is for log or deleting the check for "log" for non-log.

Kevin_in_GA
4,548 posts
msg #80803
Ignore Kevin_in_GA
10/7/2009 9:18:28 PM

Kevin:
"we are currently above the trend line. "
For example ...
Gotta chart?
++++++++++++++++++
Ask and you shall receive - I didn't even have to draw the trend line on this one - it's automatic.

http://www.finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=spy&ty=c&ta=1&p=d

LINK



karennma
6,829 posts
msg #80804
Ignore karennma
modified
10/7/2009 9:25:28 PM

Well, the market is NOT "reverse down" ...
It's CLEARLY trending UP!!
Thanks for the link.
That was a no-brainer.
:>)


decipherlinda
133 posts
msg #80810
Ignore decipherlinda
10/7/2009 11:19:21 PM

The finviz chart doesn't appear to be log scaled. If it were log scaled, the trend line would show that we are right at the bottom trend line today and have been below it for several days.

The issue here was using the bottom trend line to know when we are nearing a reversal in the market. Who knows whether it's more correct to use a log or non log scaled chart? All I can say is that it's the default chart type on StockFetcher.com.

Isn't it more important to realize that we may be at a turning point, depending on how you look at it?

Since AA reported strong earnings after the close, it provided the catalyst for a move up. Futures at this time are very strong for a great day tomorrow so problem solved for now.

StockFetcher Forums · Filter Exchange · HOW TO KNOW IF MARKET IS GOING TO REVERSE DOWN<< 1 2 >>Post Follow-up

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