StockFetcher Forums · Filter Exchange · Observations FOR THE NEW YEAR<< 1 2 >>Post Follow-up
stockfetcher1109
28 posts
msg #104164
Ignore stockfetcher1109
1/2/2012 4:56:44 PM

SF1109It seems there are many profitable filters posted here. It they are profitable beyond papertrading, why havent they been used to make millions and the developer retire? Not trying to be a thorn or ass, just seems like a logical question. IF I could take a basic filter that gave a GREAT return, backtested over 2 YEARS as shown in the forum, I would be in the islands retired.
Think of the good one could do for others less fortunate. As a lurker for years, my opinin is mabey some are, Mary4Money seems like flake braging about monoply money, TRO, Riggs, Chetron etc seem like the real deal but why are you guys still writing code? Is is possible to use a simple RSI2 filter combined with good money management to make REAL money? Is it money management that is the real key? The SF community is the most helpful online community I have ever been part of, so I dont think anyone other than Mary is holding back.
But to get to the heart of the matter, filter after filter, back test after backtest there has to be one simple "special" filter that most importantly combined with EXCELLENT MONEY MANAGMENT will make anyone a millions. iS IS rsi2?
SF1109

Eman93
4,659 posts
msg #104199
Ignore Eman93
modified
1/3/2012 4:51:26 PM

If I were a machine I would be rich.. it is the ability to conquer ones emotions in battle... and to believe in the unbelievable.

It is to be able to trade as if the money means nothing.. remember we are all playing against the best in the world with the best training and information money can buy. But here you go this is the best i can do as a simple money maker.... I have posted it several times.

http://forums.stockfetcher.com/sfforums/?qrid=1325581426&mid=95090&isiframe=

stockfetcher1109
28 posts
msg #104201
Ignore stockfetcher1109
1/3/2012 5:03:36 PM

Thanks Eman,

What I figured is these brillant minds like tro, riggs, chet, kevin from GA & others are like thomas jefferson always working for perfection and they love what they do. They are so far ahead of what I will be able to do at my age, it would take a life time to catch up.

What I am wondering is, if you have one really good filter/system along with good money mangment thats all you need, or at least thats good enough for me. I would milk that one till the cows came home. I know Kevin from GA is using real money as he talks about 401k money etc. and I am sure the others mentioned above are using real cash too.

Thanks for your feedback

SF 1109

stockfetcher1109
28 posts
msg #104202
Ignore stockfetcher1109
1/3/2012 5:08:53 PM

Eman- thanks -great filter. Wonder why no discussion as to it merit. Is it too simple ? sf

Eman93
4,659 posts
msg #104207
Ignore Eman93
1/3/2012 7:45:32 PM

I guess... its about like a coin flip.. but the odds prove out on the back test...

also works on the 3 cross. But it is still a coin flip..

3% on a 2.00 stock is only .06 move... a string of 10% losses will wipe out your profits.

I dont trade it much unless a name comes up that I know.... a past runner.....

miketranz
715 posts
msg #104209
Ignore miketranz
1/3/2012 9:55:46 PM

It's not the filter that will make you money,it's the man pulling the trigger that determines profit & losses....

stockfetcher1109
28 posts
msg #104212
Ignore stockfetcher1109
1/4/2012 12:09:18 AM

Mike -agreed so if you have a 51% winning filter and good money managment, thats all you need?


JinNJ46
22 posts
msg #104214
Ignore JinNJ46
modified
1/4/2012 9:02:34 AM

In search of the Holy grail.

There's a lot of individualism involved with this field as with most others. What is your goal?! Retiring early, secondary income, be the next Warren Buffett?!?! For some it's all about the money, for others it's the thrill of the chase. FIrstly, establish your goal both qualitatively and quantitatively. I'm sure you can find a number of "winning" strategies that have varying degrees of success in both frequency and ROI. That said will any of these satisfy your goal?! Money management rules. None of these strategies can be successful without it. Personally, I am interested in high-probability/lower risk options trading aka NOT a get rich strategy.

Currently, I am focused on discovering reliable, statistically proven divergence premises. My preferred underlying product is ETF, my preferred trade is credit spread.

Anyone have the same interest?!

Kevin_in_GA
4,537 posts
msg #104215
Ignore Kevin_in_GA
modified
1/4/2012 9:16:17 AM

1/3/2012 9:55:46 PM

It's not the filter that will make you money,it's the man pulling the trigger that determines profit & losses....

On this point I would disagree - to me, a good trading system removes human intuition and/or emotions from the process. As you are phrasing it here, it's all about the trader and not the system, implying that the system is irrelevant.


stockfetcher1109
15 posts
msg #104212
- Ignore stockfetcher1109 1/4/2012 12:09:18 AM

Mike -agreed so if you have a 51% winning filter and good money managment, thats all you need?


No. What is important is not win % but the expectancy of the filter, meaning the average profit per trade one can anticipate based on using this approach versus others.

An example to help clarify this -

We have two systems that we can use, one which results in a winning trade 40% of the time and one which results in a winning trade 80% of the time. If this is all you know about each system, then the obvious choice for people is to go with the system that wins more often.

But now we learn that when it wins, the 40% system returns 15% on every winning trade, and loses 3% on every losing trade. In contrast, the 80% system returns 3% on every winning trade but loses 15% on each losing trade.

Now which system would you go with? Intuitively, you might still stick with the 90% system, but let's now look at the numbers more closely:

$10000 x (0.8*0.03) - $10000 x (0.2*0.15) = 240 - 300 = -$60 per trade on average

And let's look at the 40% system as well:

$10000 x (0.4*.15) - $10000 x (0.6*.03) = 600 - 180 = +$420 per trade on average

Are things becoming a little clearer? At this point it becomes very obvious that you are probably going to lose money on the 80% winning system with every trade you place.

I'd usually now talk about frequency of trades as the next key point (obviously with two profitable systems you need to look at how often one has the option to make money and multiply the average profit per trade by the frequency of trades), but since one is negative expectancy there is no real need.

Money management is different from the above - that usually is about trade sizing, stops, etc. Expectancy is what one needs to understand before placing ANY trade.



miketranz
715 posts
msg #104217
Ignore miketranz
modified
1/4/2012 12:25:27 PM

Kevin,good post.The system is relevant,and is the cornerstone to successful investing.Trading without a system or methodology is a surefire recipe to the poor house.The man sets up the parameters of the system.Entry's,exits,stop losses,size,time in trade,ect.Whether the trade is executed by human or machine,there must be money management applied,in order to 1)Stop losses 2)Increase profits.I agree,even with a high percentage system,you can still actually loss money.That's where strict money management comes in.I'll also tell you this from experience,you can make money even at 33 1/3 percent.In basic terms,you can have two small losses and one large gain.Money management is what separates the professionals from the amateurs,the winners from the losers.As far as expectancy,I take what the market gives,and deal with it in the best way I know possible..

StockFetcher Forums · Filter Exchange · Observations FOR THE NEW YEAR<< 1 2 >>Post Follow-up

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