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levamit
101 posts
msg #77640
Ignore levamit
8/18/2009 9:11:24 AM

Ok,

Last day 17.8.09 when market was closed the filter find 1873 results, please tell me how I select the best stocks from the list.
And what are the criteria to select them?

Thanks.


yenaledd
15 posts
msg #77649
Ignore yenaledd
8/18/2009 11:15:57 AM

How would I filter further if I wanted to restrict stocks to trading between $10 and $25 and sort by the twopct column?

kmcninvest
43 posts
msg #77674
Ignore kmcninvest
8/18/2009 9:22:13 PM

Ok,

Last day 17.8.09 when market was closed the filter find 1873 results, please tell me how I select the best stocks from the list.
And what are the criteria to select them?

Thanks.
_________________________________________________

You want to run the filter after close Friday and before open on Monday. This week FUQI was number 1 with 13 weeks over 5% and there were multiple listed with 12 weeks over 5%. I chose BZH because it had the higher 26 week and 52 week over 5%. Both hit 5% already this week.

kmcninvest
43 posts
msg #77675
Ignore kmcninvest
8/18/2009 9:23:19 PM

How would I filter further if I wanted to restrict stocks to trading between $10 and $25 and sort by the twopct column?
__________________________________________________________
Just put the stock price restriction in the criterial and change the sort to the 2% column.

Kevin_in_GA
4,553 posts
msg #78118
Ignore Kevin_in_GA
8/27/2009 6:40:37 PM

This is a VERY interesting idea. Thanks, TRO.

This fits my needs nicely - I still work a day job, so no way I can trade like many here do. And frankly, the idea of "put in your orders and walk away confident you'll net 1-2%" is alluring.

Will try this out with a portion of my trading capital next week. I am a little worried that we are seeing great results recently because of the market pump up that will soon go "boom", but looking at several of these top stocks, they have consistently performed during what was arguably the worst year in thre decades for the market.

Agina, Thanks to TRO for all he has contributed here. Keep the good stuff coming - it is always appreciated.



Kevin_in_GA
4,553 posts
msg #78169
Ignore Kevin_in_GA
8/28/2009 3:12:43 PM

Here are the stocks that have done the best for consistent 1,2, and 3% moves

AVII
PWER
FNF
ISLE
BC
PLD
ALK
RT
RZ
AN


However, I am in the process of looking at the last 52 weeks of historical data to see if you ACTUALLY do make money. At 1%, a few bad weeks could wipe out any profit you might have accrued.

It all seems to hinge on how you account for losing weeks. My current analysis simply says that if the target is not hit, you use the weekly close. I am also compounding - whatever the balance was on Friday for a given stock, it is rolled into the next week. Trading costs are set at $15 for the buy/sell combo per stock per week.

Results in a moment ....

Kevin_in_GA
4,553 posts
msg #78170
Ignore Kevin_in_GA
8/28/2009 3:25:33 PM

SUMMARY OF CROCKPOT TRADING STRATEGY

INITIAL INVESTMENT FOR EACH STOCK: $5,000
TRADING COSTS INCURRED PER WEEK: $15

START DATE: 8/18/2008
END DATE: 8/24/2009

TICKER 1% APPROACH 2% APPROACH 3% APPROACH
YIELD BALANCE YIELD BALANCE YIELD BALANCE
AVII 31.97% $6,598.27 78.73% $8,936.68 3.41% $5,170.66
PWER 12.76% $5,637.83 -15.80% $4,210.01 -29.98% $3,501.01
FNF 11.86% $5,593.20 80.82% $9,040.97 93.98% $9,698.85
ISLE -9.19% $4,540.40 20.11% $6,005.58 83.43% $9,171.63
BC -4.17% $4,791.36 6.15% $5,307.72 -66.60% $1,669.76
PLD 5.22% $5,260.89 34.28% $6,714.08 -47.25% $2,637.71
ALK 7.46% $5,373.04 62.75% $8,137.64 43.46% $7,173.14
RT -39.94% $3,003.12 -5.71% $4,714.28 -59.72% $2,014.00
RZ -0.78% $4,961.16 45.46% $7,273.21 16.74% $5,837.12
AN 13.49% $5,674.71 89.71% $9,485.25 -19.12% $4,043.89


NET RESULT:

1% Approach yields 2.87% or $51,433.97 on an initial investment of $50,000.00 - pretty weak. Target was hit on average 94% of the time

2% Approach yields 39.65% or $69,825.41 on an initial investment of $50,000.00 - not bad, but below what I would have expected given the high frequency of hitting this target (about 90%).

3% Approach yields the worst at 1.84% or $50,917.77 on an initial investment of $50,000.00. Target was hit about 77% of the time.


kmcninvest
43 posts
msg #78173
Ignore kmcninvest
8/28/2009 3:50:23 PM

Thanks for doing the backtesting. What would happen if you targeted the 2% goal using only 3 stocks?

Kevin_in_GA
4,553 posts
msg #78187
Ignore Kevin_in_GA
modified
8/28/2009 6:06:29 PM

The top 3 in the list are the ones you would probably choose, since they have been the most consistent.

Backtest already done - just summing up the proceeds

AVII 78.73% $8,936.68
PWER -15.80% $4,210.01
FNF 80.82% $9,040.97

NET: 47.92% $22,187.66

Pretty good, but below what you would expect at 2% per week (don't get me wrong, I'd take this in a heartbeat!)



kmcninvest
43 posts
msg #78191
Ignore kmcninvest
8/28/2009 6:35:32 PM

Thanks Kevin. I have been trading the scan for the last 5 weeks using a 13 week 5% gain count with a week by week look behind for 12 weeks to see if a stock was recently missing the 5% and adding a 26 and 52 week count to see long term strength. I trade 2 stocks each week. I have hit the goal all weeks except this week I missed with 1, CAR. The main reason I missed is I did not research enough with this stock. After I make my top 5 picks from the list I research the companies and the industries and fundamentals and choose 2. If i looked at CAR more closely I would have seen that their was insider sell off last week as well as the stock had underlying weakness. I am like you in that I can not day trade and was looking for a good short term strategy. I think this is still a great scan but I think it is more than taking the list and going with it. You have to do research on the companies. Also, I have found I am using the same companies (with the exception of CAR) and I get to know how they behave. That is hard to factor into backtesting. I am new to SF so take what I say with a grain of salt. By the way, I am from Atlanta, any user groups here for SF?

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