StockFetcher Forums · Filter Exchange · VIX Bubble Watch!!<< 1 2 >>Post Follow-up
karennma
6,827 posts
msg #78105
Ignore karennma
8/27/2009 2:43:20 PM

24.56

For the record ... let's see when this bubble pops!


karennma
6,827 posts
msg #78915
Ignore karennma
9/9/2009 9:43:46 PM

@ 23.09 = VIX double bottom


trendscanner
265 posts
msg #78934
Ignore trendscanner
9/10/2009 7:00:14 AM

Weekly vix chart certainly looks that way to me.

johnpaulca
11,296 posts
msg #78951
Ignore johnpaulca
9/10/2009 11:01:57 AM

It will be interesting when it gets to 23. This last surge on the SPY is on low volume.

johnpaulca
11,296 posts
msg #78956
Ignore johnpaulca
9/10/2009 1:05:58 PM

VIX...just touched 23...wait and see.

karennma
6,827 posts
msg #78964
Ignore karennma
9/10/2009 2:26:43 PM

OMG!
$22.82 is the low so far.
unbelievable!


brianma64
4 posts
msg #78971
Ignore brianma64
9/10/2009 3:43:39 PM

the entire rally since march has been on low/declining valium/volume (or at least since SP 850). the thing about govmnt run markets is it's a crap shoot when technical analysis works. volume typically hasn't been working. that's not to say it won't. the only thing daily low volume seems to produce is a stick save into the close.

BarTune1
404 posts
msg #78976
Ignore BarTune1
9/10/2009 5:13:42 PM

I am long the VXX and picked up some more at 52.05 at the close ...... this looks like a no brainer reversion to the mean short term trade to me ..... i will exit, end of day, when it crosses the 5 day moving average ..... which is 56.05 currently ...... good risk reward here ...... and the SPY 2 day RSI indicates the market is extremely overbought .....

trendscanner
265 posts
msg #78992
Ignore trendscanner
9/10/2009 8:59:11 PM

Bartune, I hope the VXX trade works out for you. I've had mixed success picking bottoms so I'm not a buyer yet. If we get a climax volume day as VXX bottoms with a hammer candlestick that has a nice long tail on the bottom, I may try to get in near the close.

I noticed a significant increase in volume on VXX lately. Can that type of volume increase on a ETF come anywhere other than from people shorting it?

Everyone knows this market needs to go down. It's priced based on high expectations for big time, rebounding 2010 earnings, which I believe is wishful thnking at best. But I don't think it will go down until the bears have capitulated and as much "slow money" as possible has come in from the sidelines. Maybe we're close to that point, who knows.


BarTune1
404 posts
msg #78996
Ignore BarTune1
modified
9/10/2009 9:46:21 PM

Well, one never knows. My trading strategy is basically simple - short term reversion to the mean - a Larry Connors follower. And i get out at the end of the day after a cross of the 5 day moving average. Usually the average holding period is no longer than 3-5 days. I will bet dollars to doughnuts that VXX crosses the 5 day moving average and closes above my cost. In any event, will be "out" one way or another.

I hope that my exit is above my average cost which is currently around $52.70 on 600 shares. I will add up to 400 more shares if the VIX drops another 3-5% during the next couple days. So we will see what happens - this system has been pretty good to me. If you plot the closing VXX vs its 5 day moving average, or any stock for that matter, it usually bounces around pretty good. And, I am usually only in after it has crossed for a few days, and, the other indicators I follow show that the market is either overbought or oversold depending upon which way I am playing. I added a number of other short positions today. Some of those come from Trading Markets Short Term Power Ratings which I use daily. Their highest rated stocks and lowest rated stocks (I stick to the high volume ones) have been pretty good candidates and successful trades over the last year for me.

I hope the market does not make me a liar now that i have made a few posts! I really have not participated in any investing message boards before the past two weeks. I am participating now because from what I have read here, there are some pretty smart people with very good insight, such as yourself.

Cheers,

James



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