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MARY4MONEY
806 posts
msg #82981
Ignore MARY4MONEY
modified
11/13/2009 8:27:43 AM

the biggest and most accurate indicator of absolute bottom and top reversals is the monthly rsi-2-- on the dollar index uup- the monthly has risen off its dead bottom to 31%0 historicall once a stock or index rises >15% above the zero line-it explosdes up with a 98% accuracy- as you saw what happened in march with the long indexes and stocks-- since the dollar uusally is the inverse of the markets- it usually signifies a market top reversal last time uup was off a bottom reversal in feb 2008 it ran from 22-28 and at the same time the dollar ran 76-90 until oct of 2008--all the major indexes are showing a neg divergence on the monthly rsi-2 which hit a monthly rsi-2 of 98.9-99.7% and at the same time the short etfs are starting to show a pos divergence off there bottoms- but since the market is so strong we could get a double monthly rsi-2 of >99%-just be careful- as we can see this rally has shown that its been purely manipulated- in the last 10 years on the spy there has only been 1 monthly where it hit >99% then retreated to only a low of 65 then went to >99% again--and the market on the spx went from 11225 in 2004 to the 2007 high near 1550-so we maybe getting that again

porti
20 posts
msg #83002
Ignore porti
11/13/2009 12:48:48 PM

Please "someone" translate this?



karennma
6,831 posts
msg #83005
Ignore karennma
11/13/2009 12:54:59 PM

Porti:
In a nutshell:
"all the major indexes are showing a neg divergence on the monthly rsi-2 which hit a monthly rsi-2 of 98.9-99.7% and at the same time the short etfs are starting to show a pos divergence off there bottoms."

=============================================================================================

I don't know what program M4M uses to get "monthly" rsi(2), but his premise is basic ... which is ..
When the monthly rsi(2) hits 98-99%, the market is overbought and ready to reverse.
And of course, at this point, the SHORT ETFS would show a "positive" divergence ... meaning they would start going up.


karennma
6,831 posts
msg #83006
Ignore karennma
11/13/2009 1:01:33 PM

Porti:
Furthermore:
"but since the market is so strong we could get a double monthly rsi-2 of >99%-just be careful- as we can see this rally has shown that its been purely manipulated- "
===========================================================================================

Basically means ....
The monthly rsi(2) hitting 99%, doesn't necessarily mean "THE top". The monthly rsi(2) could pullback a little and hit 99% again, thus giving us a double-top.
Since the markets are "manipulated", you can never be too "sure" which top is "THE top".


trendscanner
265 posts
msg #83007
Ignore trendscanner
11/13/2009 1:02:41 PM

Stockcharts dot com has monthly charts. Monthly RSI2 for uup is 1.26 There is a RSI2 diverence on the monthly SPX chart. Monthly RSI2 was near 99 a month ago, SPX dipped and is now making a new high but rsi2 is barely 90.

if the dollar begins a major rally, would that mean it's a good time to short gold?

porti
20 posts
msg #83032
Ignore porti
modified
11/13/2009 7:45:23 PM

Thanks for the explanations karennma and trendscanner. M4m, i am wordless of youre achievements! Keep posting!

I went in QID today average 20.85 and i hope for a pullback of the Markets next week. Lets see what Monday will bring. Stop loss is set to 20. Maybe i got fooled with this trade and we will have a continuing rally, but as m4m say "a double top only happened 1 time in ten years". Thats 10 to 1

The last three months, when the first upleg happened it was a good move to average in to the trade. So i hope this time i am not wrong on this. Should have waited for mondays price action, stop loss could trigger in the first second at market open.
Wish me luck, i need it!



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