StockFetcher Forums · Filter Exchange · no subject<< 1 2 3 4 >>Post Follow-up
JoeGrossinger
165 posts
msg #28572
Ignore JoeGrossinger
9/14/2003 5:14:31 AM

It's pretty simple. Yesterday's market action has far greater importance than last weeks. Everything that has taken place on or before Friday is in Friday's price.
Averages are smoothed to make the most current data more important than the market data of 20 days ago.

It should be obvious to anyone that today's news is more important than yesterday's news and yesterday's news is more important than last weeks news.
Weekly charts contain news that is no longer relevant.
Daily charts have less of that because their data is more recent.

Weekly charts should be used to confirm trends shown in the daily charts, you are doing it the other way around. There is no current trend except that the stock is basing.

There are a bazillion other charts which show trends, STRONG trends on their daily charts and I prefer to stick with them.
You of course are free to do it your way.
I don't buy stocks where the price is going sideways. Simple as that.
I can make money with stocks that have a down trend or an up trend.
I can't make any money in a stock that is basing because my problems just doubled.
I have to know how long it will base. Do you know how long this one will base?
How many days or weeks?
I have to know which direction the stock will take when it breaks out of the base. Do you know that?
It's obvious on the chart that most buyers and sellers don't know the trend because they are buying within the base.

So, I prefer to buy stocks that are in an established trend.
You can also buy stocks that are oversold in the expectation of a rebound or short an overbought stock in the expectation of a pull back.
What the hell do you do with a stock that is going across the page instead of up or down?
Buy and hope.
You could very well be right. But you are taking the investor approach instead of the trader approach.
I don't give a stock more than a week. After that I'm after a better performer.
Perhaps your time frame is so long that if it takes off a month or two from now it will be OK by you. A lot of folks are like that.

A stock can have many trends.
It can be bullish on the 5 minute chart, while it's bearish on the daily chart and at the same time have a bullish pattern on the weekly chart.
Your time-frame will determine which chart is the most important.
If you think data from 3 months ago on the weekly chart is more important than last week's data on the daily, go with the weekly.
I don't understand that reasoning, but the market has all sorts of traders and investors who all have different time frames.
Mine is one week. That is all. If I keep a stock longer than a week it's because the price is going up.
I never keep under performers or none performers for more than a week.

The Bollinger bands say this stock has to base for at least a week more before it will make any significant move. They are way too far appart right now.
Most prices moves that start on one end of the bands will carry to the other end.
The MACD is negative and getting more negative.
Just eyeballing the chart with no indicators says the price is flat and not going up or down.
The RSI is flat at 50 and is moving like the price. Accross and not up or down.
No trend.

If you want to ignore all that current data and reach back to the weekly chart in order to find something bullish, be my guest.





EWZuber
1,373 posts
msg #28579
Ignore EWZuber
9/14/2003 4:44:09 PM

Joe, I think you missed the major point of my post concerning BCON.
If you draw a trendline from the high on 8/20/03 to the high of 8/28 to the present you'll see that on Thursday trendline resistance was broken and then on Friday the stock bounced up off this trendline again, confirming it as support for now.
Also look at the volume on Thursday. It was much several times greater than the past 9 sessions.
The 50 HR.MA has been in a slight downtrend and recently has flattened out so it can serve as support and presently has turned up slightly to indicate an uptrend.
So in my opinion it's not just a stock that is basing. It is a stock that is trying to break out from it's base.
The play on BCON was not a long term play.
It was intended, as I believe I posted, to be a play on a pop off of an old trendline resistance now turned support.
So there are indicators that support a play here. I'm not saying it will succeed. Thats why they call them indicators not laws.
Also I would not chase the stock. A position within about 1 ~ 2% of support or not at all would be my strategy.
JMHO


makeroftrades
29 posts
msg #28580
Ignore makeroftrades
9/14/2003 4:54:22 PM

Show stocks where Weekly Fast Stochastic(5,3) Fast %K crossed above Fast Stochastic(5,3) Slow %D within the last 1 Week and Weekly Fast Stochastic(5,3) Fast %K is below 50 and Fast Stochastic(5,3) Fast %K crossed above Fast Stochastic(5,3) Slow %D within the last 1 day and Fast Stochastic(5,3) Fast %K is below 25 and Average Volume(90) is above 100,000 and close is between 1 and 15 and date offset is 0
]

i ran this filter and got no stocks , what shoul dthe offset be , youve got 0


JoeGrossinger
165 posts
msg #28587
Ignore JoeGrossinger
9/15/2003 12:39:49 PM

This thread started out with BCON, now it's NXXI.
For the record my comments regard BCON, I stay on subject in threads.
I don't don't why NXXI got thrown in here when all we were talking about was BCON.



EWZuber
1,373 posts
msg #28590
Ignore EWZuber
9/15/2003 3:19:45 PM

Joe;
regarding your post of 9/14/2003 5:14:31 AM.
The way I understand the market it does not work like that. Everything that has taken place on or before Friday is not in Fridays price. If it was then after a company announced earnings and next quarter projections the price would immediately jump to the highest point until next earnings report ( provided no more 'news' was released ). But that is not what happens. As a matter of fact, many times companies will consistently report improved revenue & earnings and have no long term debt but still the price may be less 6 months or even years later after consistent growth. Looking at long term monthly and quarterly periodicity charts one can see these governing cycles at work and when these cycles are complete the stock price will appreciate.

There is this illusion that the market is news driven, and although news will influence the market it is not the deciding factor. Last I read no one has ever been able to make a direct relationship between earnings and stock price.

I contend that the market is driven by cycles that are a manifestation of the human condition and this is what gives long term charts a very high level of importance.


EWZuber
1,373 posts
msg #28600
Ignore EWZuber
9/16/2003 2:35:28 AM

makeroftrades
Sorry about that, there was a mistake in the writing of the filter.
Try this,
[Show stocks where Weekly Fast Stochastic(5,3) Fast %K crossed above Weekly Fast Stochastic(5,3) Slow %D within the last 1 Week and Weekly Fast Stochastic(5,3) Fast %K is below 50 and Fast Stochastic(5,3) Fast %K crossed above Fast Stochastic(5,3) Slow %D within the last 1 day and Fast Stochastic(5,3) Fast %K is below 25 and Average Volume(90) is above 100,000 and close is between 1 and 15]

The difference is that I forgot to put 'Weekly' as a condition for the slow %D weekly chart crossover. I havn't had much time to test this rewrite. I'm having through put problems on the net tonight.


EWZuber
1,373 posts
msg #28610
Ignore EWZuber
9/16/2003 4:50:23 PM

Today BCON produced a spike to 74C and made a very steep supporting trendline that was violated at 11:30 @ 72C on the 5 min. chart and held that level for the entire 5 min. period and traded 92,500 shares. Plenty to get an execution. The bulk of the rise was so fast that either strategy could have been used to exit the position. That is to exit as high as possible or at trendline violation. There has been multiple possible entry points at support @ 65C over the last 2 days. This would have returned a profit of almost 11% before commissions if bought at support and sold at trendline break as suggested.

BCON was met by the rising 25 DMA and trendline support at the same time today. If one carefully draws a trendline as suggested in the post made on 9/12 on a Bigcharts daily chart then selects a 2 day 5 minute chart, ( or a 10 day hourly chart ) it is evident that the move began right as the stock tested trendline support during the last 5 minutes of yesterdays session and the first 5 minutes of todays session.
A trade definately not for everyone as it required focus and a quick decision.


EWZuber
1,373 posts
msg #28621
Ignore EWZuber
9/17/2003 1:51:02 AM

Modification to the Weekly/Daily chart stochastic crossover filter.

[Show stocks where Weekly Fast Stochastic(5,3) Fast %K crossed above Weekly Fast Stochastic(5,3) Slow %D within the last 2 Weeks and Weekly Fast Stochastic(5,3) Fast %K is below 50 and Fast Stochastic(5,3) Fast %K crossed above Fast Stochastic(5,3) Slow %D within the last 1 day and Fast Stochastic(5,3) Fast %K is below 25 and Average Volume(90) is above 100,000 and close is between 1 and 15]

Changed the Weekly fast line cross to 'within 2 weeks'. Made a huge difference.


EWZuber
1,373 posts
msg #28635
Ignore EWZuber
9/17/2003 12:36:55 PM

BCON up another 26% & rising today so far.


EWZuber
1,373 posts
msg #28636
Ignore EWZuber
9/17/2003 1:16:54 PM

BCON just broke trendline support at resistance formed at the low of 8/19 @ $0.90. About +33% for the day.


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