StockFetcher Forums · General Discussion · Do your DD<< 1 2 3 4 >>Post Follow-up
jthehut
124 posts
msg #29177
Ignore jthehut
10/8/2003 1:54:01 PM

EWZ:
did you read my message above?

here it is again:
Zuber:
I get my support/resistance info off stockta.com
are their info accurate to use (not meaning are the numbers right, but are their numbers the right ones to use AND useful), and if not, where do you get support/res. info?
thx,
M aka jabba-the-hut
PS Picking bottoms is tough to do, but usually I'm trading in an "up" day on a stock that has had a "down-trend" ie 3 or sometimes more days of down-ward pressure (AREN'T I RIGHT, PEOPLE-IN-THE-KNOW?!?!?)



TheRumpledOne
6,358 posts
msg #29181
Ignore TheRumpledOne
10/8/2003 4:05:19 PM

www.stockconsultant.com is great too.




EWZuber
1,373 posts
msg #29186
Ignore EWZuber
10/8/2003 6:18:57 PM

jthehut
Sorry bout that.
Everyone has a system that they are comfortable with, and everyones is different. there is no correct or incorrect set of tools, IMO.
I see at this site they are using a completely different set of tools than I do.
I use 15, 25 & 50 DMAs ( And very rarely a 5 or 10 DMA only on screamers ). I see they are using 5,13,20 & 50 EMAs.
EMAs are weighted more toward recent movement. In other words the more recent stock price movements will have a greater effect on the trendline than price movements, say, a week ago.
A Simple or Daily Moving Average is not weighted.

This site also use MACD. Probably a majority of technical traders use this indicator.
I havn't found a need for it because it is a lagging indicator and there is a combination of other indicators I use to replace it that I think are more reliable, faster and easier to read.

I have found no compelling need for RSI either.
Stochastics I use are 5,3.

I really don't like to put people through discribing charts on a forum but there is no other way.

If you can bring up a 3 year chart of SSFT. There are some interesting things to see here.
This is a huge 3 year consolidation pattern.
Draw a trendline from the low on 4/4/01 to 9/17/01, 9/27/02, 3/7/03 and extend it all the way to the present.
Notice that this trendline was broken right at the gap formed on 8/5/03.
Typically a very bearish indication especially given that this trendline has been support for so long.

Almost always when you see a trendline like this broken IT WILL BE TESTED AS RESISTANCE LATER ON. It could be days, weeks or months later.
This one was tested as resistance yesterday and it did not hold but notice it stopped the stock from moving further yesterday.

Now draw a line from the low of 3/1/02 to 9/26/02 to the present. This became the supporting trendline for SSFT just recently.

Now draw a line from the high of 6/11/02 to 11/27/02 to 6/6/03 to the present.
This forms the long term resistance trendline for this huge consolidating wedge pattern.
Notice that SSFT is not out of the woods either. This resistance trendline stopped SSFT dead in its tracks today.

Indications today are ominous. Huge volume and the stock bounced down from resistance while stochastics look very overbought and also look like they are trying to cross over to start distribution. The volume tells you that sellers are in control.

If it continues down ( I suspect it will ) it will make a great shooting star pattern.

If you clear those trendlines from the chart draw another short term line from the high on 7/14 to 7/29 to 9/17 to 9/24 and the present.
You will see that trendline resistance is quietly broken on 10/3 and tested as support on 10/6. The rest is ( recent ) history.

Before any of these huge gains could happen though the 25 DMA ( at the least ) had to flatten out so it could function as support. I have found that 9 times out of 10 that is a prerequisite so that the stock has a platform from which it can launch.
If the MAs are in steep downtrends then the only other way out of a MA in a steep downtrend is to gap up to where support can be attempted at a previous cycle high ( or wait till the MA flattens but it may be too late if longer term stochastics indicate major distirbution is imminent ).

It was almost a given that this stock was going to sell off today. I have seen them do this with SSFT before and it'as a sucker play.

They get everyone all excited and bid it way up to resistance in the premarket.
The unsuspecting non technical trader sees nothing but dollar signs and takes the bait.
Big money then spends the day selling into this strength at outrageous prices and many are burned.
On a gap like this up to resistance I almost always sell at resistance.
With SSFT closing below the long term trendline resistance the long term consolidation pattern is still intact.

Long term charts indicate a +xover on Quarterly and Monthly periodicity charts so big things could be in the works here later down the road.

When I played BCON thwe other day I figured that when it gapped up it would run to resistance.

On a 2 month chart draw a line from the high on 8/19 to 9/18 to the present.
( Just to show you how I arrived at the really important short term trendline ) Then draw a line from the high on 9/18 to 9/22 to 9/30.
On 9/30 the weak hands were shaken out cause they will just be selling and causing resistance later on. This is typical. ( its acted much the same as the handle of a cup/w handle pattern ).

On 10/1 the 25 DMA was tested as support. On 10/2 the trendline was tested as support to shake out a few more. Resting once more on the 25 DMA the launch was ready as sellers were just about gone now. ( notice how the volume dropped from the 22nd to the 1st )

I think I bought this on 10/2 cause I saw this trendline being broken.
I figured it would run to test resistance at the trendline around $1.

After all this was just a money grab and the big money would run it as high as possible to resistance to sell at the highest price they could.
There were no fundamentals to support the move it was just a vehicle for a trade.
This is also typical.

Oh BTW, a trendline drawn from 8/20 to 8/28 explains the previous run up.

So you can see how trendlines are a great tool if you get good with them. It is an art not a science.
Along with moving averages, volume, occaisionally a Williams %R, and multiple time frame Stochastics I have found it possible to deal with most situations effectively.

But technicals and fundamentals are not the whole picture.
The greatest enemy, you may find, is yourself.
Best of fortune


newskate
29 posts
msg #29222
Ignore newskate
10/9/2003 10:22:51 PM

EWZuber - regarding the day trades per week rule you mentioned. I'm new to this but think I've learned something, maybe you can confirm. I've started with a cash account - not margin. I've read quite a few rule interpretations and the actual rule itself and they all talk about margin accounts. As I don't have a margin account, I'm assuming that I can go in and out as I wish since I'm risking only money I have - and I'm not allowed to short. I just started cash trading this week and have met the limit already without issue.

It this the way you understand it? Do you have margin or cash account? I'm thinking, if I'm right, and you have a margin account, maybe you should open another account, stay cash only and enjoy the "freedom" till you recover - and no doubt you will recover. I can only read about half your posts before my head hurts! Between you, Avery, Muddy, Todd, Jon, D-Murk, and the cast of Muddies, I'm not sure how I could be learning more!

Stephen


jthehut
124 posts
msg #29224
Ignore jthehut
10/9/2003 10:41:45 PM

WARNING: READING EWZUBER'S POSTS WILL MAKE YOUR HEAD HURT!!!!! ;)

WARNING: READING JOEG'S POSTS CAN ALSO MAKE YOUR HEAD HURT!!!! LOL

Newskate, you're totally right, I have learned a ton in the couple of months I've been here (even from JoeG!) and I keep learning every day.

Read back-posts, they are equally good to review (hmmmmmm, something to do tonight, perhaps???).

M aka jabba-the-hut


EWZuber
1,373 posts
msg #29231
Ignore EWZuber
10/10/2003 12:53:59 AM

newskate
I checked into this angle too when I had an Etrade account.
They had led me to believe through many tedious and somewhat heated telephone conversations that there was nothing i could do if I didn't have the necessary $25K,
Being determined as I am I called several other brokers and finally a guy at Datek voluntarily told me at their brokerage I could trade all i wanted as long as it was a cash account.
Calling back Etrade they told me something like I still could not trade more than my balance once a day because of something they called a 'settling period' for ther trade.
Supposedly it takes 3 days to 'settle the trade'.
I asked them if some guy throws the paperwork in the family station wagon and delivers it in another state somewhere to 'settle the trade'.
After all this is the electronic information age.
I just got rid of them. They were outrageously expensive anyhow.
If memory serves me there is even wording in the NASDAQ rule that mentions discouraging daytreding in a cash account.
Have you been labeled a 'pattern day trader' yet?
I have an account at Interactive Brokers now and I'm pretty sure it is a margin
account. My status as a 'pattern day trader' followed me here.
When I got this new account there was very specific mention of Rule 2520 and it seems they keep very close tabs on us.
The number of trades I'm allowed is available right on the trading console.
Spose it couldn't hurt to ask about a cash account here. If I were you I wouldn't say anything to your broker though.
Thanks


jthehut
124 posts
msg #29233
Ignore jthehut
10/10/2003 1:15:38 AM

Yes, "THEY" keep close tabs, BIG BROTHER always does, and internet use has really facilitated that spying on us...if you didn't see my security posts (how to help baffle spying that EVERY SITE does especially "free" email, search sites, stock sites, etc. so they don't get your IP and personal info) then email me and I'll send you details (after Canadian long weekend).

As for the 3 day crap, I believe it's for the brokerage/bank to hold on to your money, this is how they scalp off you and make oodles of $$$. BUT WHEN THE SHOE IS ON THE OTHER FOOT, NOTICE THEY WANT YOUR MONEY ASAP!!!
Funny how brokerages and banks NEVER make a mistake that's NOT in their favor...

M aka j-the-hut


newskate
29 posts
msg #29243
Ignore newskate
10/10/2003 7:25:05 AM

EWZuber - I ain't sayin nutin'! :)

Take care,

Stephen


txtrapper
548 posts
msg #30027
Ignore txtrapper
11/25/2003 12:24:21 PM

happy_as_a_lark 10/7/2003 9:33:24 AM


Long fIlter:

Buy when
QstIck(14) crosses above zero(can be replaced wIth Chande momentum oscIllator In SF) and
ADX (14) Is above 20 and and
DI+(14) Is above DI-(14)


happy_as_a_lark would you please give me the time period you use for this filter? I notice on the Qstick(14) if you go from 3day/5min to 3mos/daily or 1yeear/weekly the line crossing the 0 changes positions, what is your ideal time frame for accuracy, thanks a lot, I am really impressed with your filters they all see to work great.

good trading, thanks in advance

txtrapper

email me: txtrapper@sbcglobal.net


StockFetcher Forums · General Discussion · Do your DD<< 1 2 3 4 >>Post Follow-up

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