StockFetcher Forums · General Discussion · Have we truly bottomed?<< 1 ... 5 6 7 8 9 ... 10 >>Post Follow-up
jbrtrader
32 posts
msg #60692
Ignore jbrtrader
3/20/2008 2:05:48 PM

I don't know the GE upgrade today looks suspect to me,glad we got out of it yesterday..I'm not crazy about anything tied to lending right now.Looks like one big pump before the next blowup

nikoschopen
2,824 posts
msg #60693
Ignore nikoschopen
3/20/2008 2:08:52 PM


Quote from mb504:

In my "humble" opinion there is NO WAY! that we have bottomed. After this Opt Exp, I would say that we will sink on an "extended" way down, even longer than the last drop.

The DOW & NASD tanking in Jan-1973 after the last fuel crisis is pretty convincing to me. And other "major" nightmares are added to this "very risky" scenario... Agreed on the BS about how wonderful the Fed is doing. Usually when the Fed acts (on anything), the cost follows.

However, I don't quite know what will be the straw that will break the camels back... Watch it be something that no one expected....


One thing that's very different from the current crisis and the oil crisis of the '70s, as far as I know, is that the previous one was largely caused by geopolitical concerns (eg. Israeli-Arab conflict, Vietnam war, etc.). The situation that dictates the current crisis is more to due with the molotov cocktail made of stagflation and a credit crunch.

By now, we're so much conditioned for any unforeseen events that any small catalyst will not be enough to pummel this market. It would have to be huge. One likely scenario that I can think of is even if Bernanke & Co. lowers the Fed funds rate down to 1% there ain't much economic improvement and people start to panic because they know the repercussions of 0% financing that Japanese enjoyed for decades.

zeezeetop
30 posts
msg #60701
Ignore zeezeetop
3/20/2008 10:56:41 PM

If you plot CFC and USO on the same graph, it tells the story. This market isn't supply or demand driven, it's driven where the hedge fund herd decides where it should go. When it became obvious that CFC was headed for trouble, oil was the next bubble to create.

Some really knowledgeable folks like Dan Yergan, et.al conclude that oil should not be above $80/bbl, but it is. There is ample supply with current production. In addition, we are making several of our enemies rich with h/f shenanigans.

The market will bottom when the hedge funds decide. They are having too much fun playing the volitility right now.


nikoschopen
2,824 posts
msg #60703
Ignore nikoschopen
3/21/2008 3:59:17 PM

I thought hedge funds were blowing up left and right. Anyway, I have a nasty feeling that the market will get a bounce for the next few days.

maxreturn
745 posts
msg #60704
Ignore maxreturn
3/21/2008 5:04:29 PM

Niko....agreed. My read based on weekly charts and breadth is that there is a high likelihood we bounce to at least the ema50, possibly the top of the most recent trading range, quite possibly even the ema200. But I'm ready to pounce on signs of weakness at those levels.

zeezeetop
30 posts
msg #60706
Ignore zeezeetop
3/22/2008 9:14:33 AM

Several are crashing at this time, Maybe Bennie Boy Bernanke can figure out how to bail them out as well. I can assure you many are prospering in this environment. There are more hedge funds than stocks available, so if 5, 50 or 500 go belly up it's a smalll percentage of the herd of hedge funds.

Large funds like BP Partners have doubled and tripled their worth in the past two or three years. They aren't in stocks. If they bail out of oil, the bottom will fall out.... precipitously. Same with the precious metals and other commodities. Maybe then stocks will start going up again. Smart (most) hedgers are in other things besides stocks right now.

Just check the ones going from lower left to upper right, as Gartmen says. Are these upward movements truly market driven or herd driven? I ask you again to compare CFC or most stocks for that matter to USO or other commodities in the past year.

zeezeetop
30 posts
msg #60707
Ignore zeezeetop
3/22/2008 10:54:35 AM

Oh by the way, another example of free-market capitalism. China has blocked shipments of iron ore because they feel that prices are too high and want them reduced. Maybe there is a lesson here.

What if the US blocked oil imports for a month and used the Strategic Petroleum Reserve during that time? If you want a bottom, cut commodity prices. How would that affect the economy? Much better than another rate cut! How about some creativity here?

For the short term, yes Virginia there will be a Bernanke bounce. Long term, I don't think so. China's building boom has to end sometime.

nikoschopen
2,824 posts
msg #60719
Ignore nikoschopen
3/23/2008 9:52:51 PM

max, the S&P futures already shot up 10 points in the afterhours. Expect more to come in the coming days.

ZZ, as a short-sighted daytrader I personally don't pay too much about those things. But I will say this much. Wherever the damn market ends up, there will never be a shortage of excuses. It behooves me to the point of throwing up to know that they always have the most crafty excuses for why the market moved.

zeezeetop
30 posts
msg #60724
Ignore zeezeetop
3/24/2008 7:55:56 AM

Niko, apologies, i had no intention of calling you a short sighted day trader. I have day traded myself with some level of success. The question posed for this thread was, has the market truly bottomed and that's what the answer related to.

To the other point, Bernanke has turned into Santa Claus instead of a regulator. What ever Wall Street wishes for Wall Street gets. Will the market continue the short term bounce, probably so, thanks for Bernanke.

The WSJ published this Friday after the market closed:

Standard & Poor's, in a continuing sign of loss of confidence in investment banks' profitability, Friday put Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. on negative outlook, lowering them from stable. ---- In my book that's not news I'd but financial stocks on.

If I went to the Xerox machine and started printing money like the Fed, the FBI would show up at my door with a search warrant. Let the hide go with the hair and let the market take its course. When Congress likes what you did I get real concerned and they liked the bail out.

The Keltner Bands/Bollinger Bands chart you presented several weeks ago demonstrated that we were heading for a bear market. When does it end? We are in a commodity bubble right now and no one wants to be the first to bail although oil ag chemicals is beginning to come down.

nikoschopen
2,824 posts
msg #60727
Ignore nikoschopen
3/24/2008 11:48:39 AM

ZZ,

I too apologize for causing an unnescessary misunderstanding. My previous comment was concerned more about following the price action on the charts rather than the macro perspective that changes rather frequently on a daily basis. I personally don't follow, let alone believe, these so-called news, which I rather view as "crafty excuses" for largely delaying what's inevitable.

Although I don't know where THE bottom is, I do know that we're nowhere near it. Also note that we've been rangebound for the previous 3 months. This is quite natural considering the sharp drop in January. While we'll get a temporary relief rally going forward for the next few days, my prediction is that we will most likely break below the trading range with the next downleg.

BTW I do enjoy reading ure posts so continue posting ure thoughts. Thanks!

StockFetcher Forums · General Discussion · Have we truly bottomed?<< 1 ... 5 6 7 8 9 ... 10 >>Post Follow-up

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