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txtrapper
548 posts
msg #30883
Ignore txtrapper
1/29/2004 7:09:52 AM

Zuber

The 15 day MA works like a charm for finding short term support. And it's simple too!


TxTrapper







EWZuber
1,373 posts
msg #30891
Ignore EWZuber
1/29/2004 5:28:38 PM

TxTrapper
I have used the 15 DMA extensively and still use it for end of day analysis but
I prefer to use day trading techniques to enter positions rather than end of day data.
It is like putting a microscope on the action. When done correctly it offers the possibility for a much more accurate entry with less loss when the position goes the wrong and more gain when it goes right.

Also I noticed that you and wallman talk about entering after volume has picked up. This is not my style. I don't want to follow, I want to be one of the first ones into a good position. This is before the volume appears. The NVDA entry was a good example.



txtrapper
548 posts
msg #30893
Ignore txtrapper
1/29/2004 5:59:38 PM

Zuber


http://www.incrediblecharts.com/technical/volume_patterns.htm

Volume is used for two major purposes:

If a trend is not accompanied by an increase in volume it is considered to be weak and lacking commitment.

Increases in volume often precede changes in price.


http://www.investors.com/learn/C01f.asp

Tracking Institutional Demand for a Stock

One of the most useful ways to spot current institutional trading is to study Volume. This is often the first sign that institutions are moving in or out of a stock in a major way.



This should clarfify the use of volume before entry.


TxTrapper




jthehut
124 posts
msg #30895
Ignore jthehut
1/29/2004 7:32:17 PM

Zuber:
does it look like we are testing support for the DJ/NAS yet?
Looks like we touched bottom of long term lri anyways...
And, how do you see the future, near and longer term?
Any insight, as always, is much appreciated!
~the hut~


wallman
299 posts
msg #30896
Ignore wallman
1/29/2004 8:01:13 PM

hi ZUB, you say you don't want to follow but the clue is right there in front of you,the volume build-up,why would you want to guess when it's going to come when you can see it has and take the profits very many of these give quickly.if you go to my last post on this thread 1 - 22,you'll see i mentioned DLGI looked like it still had a ways to go,you'll see it went another 46% after that,AEGN another 38% after that post,if you happened to stumble onto my site you'll see i posted DRF and ECGI the day before they gained 38% and 55%,of course most don't gain like that but you have a decent shot at them,the kind that can pay the bills for a month in a day or 2,look at NT,a favorite trader of mine,how it took off on 1 - 7 with monster volume,did the same on 9 - 3,the volume is still there,it has tested the EMA13 the last 6 days and i know i have a 80% chance of a nice gain from it once it holds green after that lenght of time of 5 or 6 days ,to me it's all about the odds and what i can take quickly,as always,respectfully,MUDDY


EWZuber
1,373 posts
msg #30897
Ignore EWZuber
1/29/2004 8:54:24 PM

txtrapper
I think maybe you misunderstood what i was trying to say.
I have a working understanding of volume and I use it in my TA, however I do not typically look for an increase in volume to find my positions because by the time volume shows up the position that I am looking for has already passed me by.

I like getting in within 1 ~ 2% of primary support or right at the break of trendline resistance when confirmed by a stochastic crossover. These are my ideal entries.
The volume usually comes in right at or just after the Res. TL break. If I wait to find it on a screen or whatever it is too late for me. I don't like having support more than 1 ~ 2% below my entry.
I like to see the volume after I get in as another confirmation the position is viable.



EWZuber
1,373 posts
msg #30898
Ignore EWZuber
1/29/2004 9:49:39 PM

wallman
Why do you think I am guessing? My system is simply different than yours.
DLGI is an OTCBB I can not trade those at IB.
AEGN offered several entries. The one I like the most was on 1/13 as TL. Res. was broken on the hourly chart and Stochastics +xover on Weekly, Daily & Hourly chart. Putting all 3 time frames in phase in accumulation. Notice there is no volume yet and the entry is at about $2.26.
Waiting for volume would seem to get me in at about $2.69 on 1/20 if I have interperated you correctly.

ECGI was one of my picks also. I first mantioned it on TxTrappers 'Hot Stocks' on 1/2.
On that thread on 1/5 I said I was looking for a bounce up off the 200 DMA which it did while also giving me a Res. TL break and a stochastic +xover on Weekly, Daily, and Hourly charts putting all 3 time frames in accumulation phase. Entry point at about $0.62. Thats a 125% gain as of todays close.
I don't know where your entry was exactly.

I couldn't get in though because my small amount of capitol was already tied up.
You and I are on two different paths. I have many many obsticles in my way to success. If my money is sittting in 2 stocks I am out of opportunity. All I can do is watch the other entries pass me by.
If I close a position, I am done for the day because the trade has to settle before I can trade again. I am working on a shoestring and do not have the resources to take a position here and there like most of you do.
Until you have to try and make something like this work I don't think you can imagine it.
Best of fortune



EWZuber
1,373 posts
msg #30903
Ignore EWZuber
1/30/2004 3:19:44 AM

jthehut
I don't think so. I suspect we started a short term ( based on hourly chart stochastics ) oversold bounce today.
I'm watching to see if it rises to test the 15 HR. MA ( @ 2085 & falling ) or 25 HR. MA.( @ 2105 & falling ) as resistance. Since hourly chart stochastics are at 60 already it seems reasonable that the cycle will be getting toppy as the 15 HR is aproached. Then I suspect it will probably run into trouble and head back down to test the 15 Week MA as support @ about 2000 & rising.
Looks like this could be a deep distribution phase.
But thats JMHO




EWZuber
1,373 posts
msg #30904
Ignore EWZuber
1/30/2004 3:24:09 AM

Another thing worth watching is the bottom of the double top pattern at 2108 ( hourly chart ). NASDAQ may try to test that as resistance at some point.


jthehut
124 posts
msg #30909
Ignore jthehut
1/30/2004 11:03:45 AM

I see the resistance at about the 2100 point for the NAS...what would you consider "passing resistance" to be comfortable saying that the NAS is headed back to about the 3000 mark?
thanks,
~the hut~


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