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jthehut
124 posts
msg #31078
Ignore jthehut
2/13/2004 4:32:53 PM

Oh I forgot, support at 6.17 and major resistance at 6.51


EWZuber
1,373 posts
msg #31082
Ignore EWZuber
2/13/2004 9:38:36 PM

jthehut
I like the fact that NAVR is close to it's 15 Week MA, TL Support and is oversold on Weekly charts. The fast and slow lines are beginning to converge in that time period.
Of particular interest is the long term Supporting Trendline which is being tested as support. Carefully draw an accurate support line starting from the intraday low of 10/13/03.I am looking for an explosive move up off of this support.
All this is happening as the stock is consolidating into a narrow wedge pattern. It doesn'tmake much difference which way it goes as the wedge breaks, it just changes the timing, IMO.
Its this convergence of events.
I also like the fundamentals which look like there is plenty of room for PPS growth.
If you look at the periods around Aug. and Oct.of 2003 you will see a situation where many of the same characteristics existed.
Volume had dropped to mid to low double digits. Thw Weekly chart was showing a stochastic line convergence. Every time the stock tested the 15 Week MA it bounced higher.
One thing we will not have is the benefit of is a rising Monthly chart Stochastics. So the move may be a good one but not as sustained as the last big cycle.
I like to plan these things in advance when possible.
JMHO


EWZuber
1,373 posts
msg #31097
Ignore EWZuber
2/15/2004 6:22:14 AM

Think I found some good ones this weekend.
STEC... good fundamentals and oversold on Monthly, Weekly, & daily chart. I really like this one. Selling volume has dropped considerably. Just waiting for a break of TL Res. & stochastic confirmation on Hourly chart.

ASX...Really like this one too. Fundamentals are excellent. Excellent growth projected and EPS estimates have been increased 3 times in the past 3 months. PEG only 0.69.
Technically, it looks like it may try to bounce up off the 25 DMA. I am thinking it may drop to test long term Trendline Support around $5.05 ( & rising ). Either will do.
JMHO




EWZuber
1,373 posts
msg #31115
Ignore EWZuber
2/17/2004 4:41:37 PM

ASX did fairly well today but because of the gap up and the fact that it was all over the chart I didn't get involved.

Bought STEC @ $5.17 just before the close. This doesn't conform to my trading discipline perfectly but close. There just wasn't much selling volume dispite the fact that the stock had dropped just after the open. A rising wedge on the 5 minute chart looked fairly bullish and the stock attempted to break Trendline Resistance on the Hourly chart several times on low volume. That caught my eye. Bought it just after a break of Short Term TL. Res. on the 5 minute chart which was just below Longer term TL Res. on the Hourly chart. Within one minute TL Res. on the Hourly chart was broken on heavy volume.
This one looks like it has a long term uptrend ahead of it. So going to try and stick with it for a while.


travlr
80 posts
msg #31117
Ignore travlr
2/17/2004 6:23:48 PM

Hi EW,

STEC is nicely oversold, but I see that a break of the 100 WMA would be the down slope of of 1 year head & shoulders pattern, Very similiar to the two in prior years. The more recent had a weekly stoch cycle, at the same location that only proved to trade sideways (weekly). I also notice that, at this location on the prior patterns that this market gapped hard and tanked on a follow-up through the 200 WMA. Pretty strong patterns. Also, the fundamentals, to me, appear pretty weak. Please realize that I am a total student of the markets still. So, I hope you will comment on my observations.

BTW... I wonder, Have you read the "book" by the "Phantom Of The Pits". If so, I hope you might also comment on his methodology.

Thanks
travlr


travlr
80 posts
msg #31118
Ignore travlr
2/17/2004 6:37:47 PM

Ahhh... That's a break of the 50 WMA, not 100.

travlr


EWZuber
1,373 posts
msg #31133
Ignore EWZuber
2/18/2004 6:05:07 PM

travlr
I don't use Weighted Moving Averages. I only use Simple Moving Averages so that is the only way I can relate MAs to the STEC chart.

I'm sorry I don't know which patterns you are refering to or what gap. I usually reference dates and prices when discribing trendlines or patterns.
For instance, 'the trendline that starts from the intraday low of 9/23/01 @ $1.03 to the intraday low of 10/6/02 @ $1.80 to the intraday low of 4/13/03 @ $2.20 is a long term Supporting Trendline.'
If you can please reference your comments I would like to see what you are looking at.

What I am looking at is the 50 WK.MA as support for now @ ~ $5.10. STEC bounced up off this yesterday.
As long as the Supporting Trendline is not seriously violated on the Hourly chart I will hold. Today STEC dropped a couple pennies below TL Support during the hours ending at 1:30 & 2:30 but the volume was the lowest of the day and dropping. Watching it on the 5 minute chart it looked more like bids were just pulled because the price did not drop because of selling pressure. The 5 minute period ending 2:20 sold off on 1,600 shares and the 5 min. period ending 3:20 that dropped to $5.21 from $5.25 on only 700 shares.
Today the stock tried to break 7 Day TL. Resistance but the volume wasn't there.

If Hourly chart TL Support is broken during the regular session I can get out at a small profit. I won't wait to see if $5.10 holds.
I'm waiting to see if STEC TL Sup. holds up until the next accumulation phase starts on the Hourly chart.
Weekly chart stochastics fast and slow lines have not yet converged so the accumulation phase has not technically begun in that time frame yet. This means that the daily chart stochastic accumulation phase could be muted if STEC can not break $5.25 and test and confirm it as support.
For a bigger picture of what has drawn me to this chart take a look at a 4 Year Monthly chart.
My timing may be a bit early as I tend to be sometimes but if I have to I'll try a few positions until I get the one I'm looking for.

As far as fundamentals go the company has recently begun to turn a profit. This can be a real kick in the butt to a stock price.
I dug into the fundamentals more today after reading your post and I agree that fundamentals are not that great.
I see my source for fundamentals did not update their March Qtr. 2004 forcast.
STEC cut back estimates twice in the past month.
FY 2004 was dropped back from $0.16 EPS to $0.14 EPS to $0.11 EPS.
March Qtr. 04 estimates were dropped from $0.03 to break even.
So yes I agree the fundamentals are not that great. Thanks for the heads up on that.
JMHO


EWZuber
1,373 posts
msg #31136
Ignore EWZuber
2/18/2004 8:29:22 PM

GIGM... Broke TL Res. today. Stochastics indicate this one will make a long term move higher.

NAVR...Moved up very nicely yesterday after forming a Morning Star Dragonfly Doji ( confirmed today ) and is basing at the top of the hourly chart stochastic cycle without selling off much. Buying volume has been much greater than selling volume even during the distribution phase. NAVR has yet to break primary TL Resistance though at $6.58 ( & falling ).

XYBR...Looking very interesting. A long term wedge pattern is coming to a conclusion and the stock is oversold on Weekly and daily charts while moving higher using the 25 WK.MA as support. This puts the odds at a move higher coming out of the wedge. Has already bounced up off the 25 WK.MA.

ARBA...Looks like it has a good chance of breaking higher out of a 17 Month wedge pattern. With Weekly and Daily chart Stochasticas aligning up in accumulation phase soon.
JMHO


EWZuber
1,373 posts
msg #31138
Ignore EWZuber
2/18/2004 9:47:19 PM

TMTA, looks good, testing the 25 WK.MA as support and oversold on Daily and Weekly chart. I would want to see a break of TL. Resistance on hourly chart now @ $3.56 ( & falling ). Next higher TL Resistance at $3.76 ( & falling ).

.COMP, Appears to be lining up to retest the 25 DMA as resistance. Looks like it wants to break through as weekly chart stochastics fast and slow lines are beginning to converge while Dialy chart stochastics fast line is crossing above the slow line with a cycle low of only a mildly oversold value of 30.
This is usually a very bullish indication to see the distribution phase so muted. It typically indicates an in phase condition ( accumulation phase in this case ) between two or more stochastic waves of different time frames.

If NASDAQ doesn't break above 2154 during this Weekly chart cycle then I suspect we will start to feel the Monthly chart stochastics slow things down a bit.
JMHO


EWZuber
1,373 posts
msg #31140
Ignore EWZuber
2/19/2004 10:14:56 AM

STEC came up against new TL Res. @ $5.30 ( formed from the gap to yesterdays high ) this morning and was hit with huge Asks. Sold for a 2% profit @ $5.29.
Still watching it for a new entry.


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