StockFetcher Forums · General Discussion · NAVI - Thoughts On This Stock - Looking for a 2% Gain Tomorrow<< 1 2 3 >>Post Follow-up
davesaint86
142 posts
msg #57929
Ignore davesaint86
12/10/2007 11:43:46 PM

NAVI dove 28% today. Ran it through the TRO Stat Filter and it hit the 1-4% mark 25 times in 100 days. What is the chance tomorrow that it will rise at least 2%?

Dave

mimi
63 posts
msg #57931
Ignore mimi
12/11/2007 12:06:57 AM

I think it has higher chance to dive the other 2% than rise 2% tomorrow, since it will be only second day of big hit.





betyerbottomdollar
169 posts
msg #57933
Ignore betyerbottomdollar
12/11/2007 1:47:14 AM

Have you looked at TELOZ?

EWZuber
1,373 posts
msg #57934
Ignore EWZuber
12/11/2007 5:12:41 AM

I am quite certain that NAVI will at least drop to test the 50 MO.MA at ~$4.90. Its important to keep in mind that these stocks don't just bounce on a point in space, there needs to be some kind of support to lure in investors and traders.
It has already broken a ~2 year supporting trend line at $6.80.
Only other support of note is the 50 MO.MA, IMO.

TheRumpledOne
6,358 posts
msg #57948
Ignore TheRumpledOne
modified
12/11/2007 8:54:29 AM

Fetcher[
/* TRO STAT SCAN - LONG AND SHORT */

set{CCb,days(close is above close 1 day ago,100)}
set{CCa,days(close is below close 1 day ago,100)}
set{ClxCl , CCa - CCb}

add column ClxCl

set{volcnt, count(volume above 1000000, 100) }
set{volzero, count(volume equal 0, 100) }

/* Long Profit Percent Statistics Display */

set{HiOp, high - open}
set{Long_Profit, HiOp/open }

set{B1A, count(Long_Profit > .01 , 100)}
set{B2A, count(Long_Profit > .02 , 100)}
set{B5A, count(Long_Profit > .05, 100)}
set{B10A, count(Long_Profit > .10 , 100)}
set{B20A, count(Long_Profit > .20 , 100)}
set{B50A, count(Long_Profit > .50, 100)}

add column HiOp
add column Long_Profit {ProfitPct}

and add column B1A {OVER1PCT}
and add column B2A {OVER2PCT}
and add column B5A {OVER5PCT}
and add column B10A {OVER10PCT}
and add column B20A {OVER20PCT}
and add column B50A {OVER50PCT}

and add column separator
/* Short Profit Percent Statistics Display */

set{OpLo, open - low }
set{Short_Profit, OpLo/open }

set{H1A, count(Short_Profit > .01 , 100)}
set{H2A, count(Short_Profit > .02 , 100)}
set{H5A, count(Short_Profit > .05, 100)}
set{H10A, count(Short_Profit > .10 , 100)}
set{H20A, count(Short_Profit > .20 , 100)}
set{H50A, count(Short_Profit > .50, 100)}

add column OpLo
add column Short_Profit {ShProfitPct}

and add column H1A {OVER1PCT}
and add column H2A {OVER2PCT}
and add column H5A {OVER5PCT}
and add column H10A {OVER10PCT}
and add column H20A {OVER20PCT}
and add column H50A {OVER50PCT}

and add column separator
and add column volcnt
and add column volzero

/* SELECTION CRITERIA */

SYMLIST(navi)

sort column 13 descending
]



Did you guys see this STATISTICS filter display? It will tell you what you want to know. I included the short stats in this one.

Just remember statistics is NOT the same as PROBABILITY. Statistics deals with the past and probability with the future. When dealing with the future ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN when it comes to trading.

Image and video hosting by TinyPic

NAVI looks like a coin toss for the up/down 2%.

HAVE FUN TRADING NAVI!!








davesaint86
142 posts
msg #57949
Ignore davesaint86
12/11/2007 8:57:24 AM

Thanks everyone. I'll monitor it and see if it tanks even more at the opening or goes up and decide if I want to pull the trigger or not. Like TRO says "Wait for Green".

TheRumpledOne
6,358 posts
msg #57950
Ignore TheRumpledOne
12/11/2007 9:20:27 AM

Muddy/Wallman says "WAIT FOR GREEN". Credit goes to him.



EWZuber
1,373 posts
msg #57968
Ignore EWZuber
12/11/2007 1:14:58 PM

At the top and bottom of every cycle there will be a consolidation pattern that forms. There is typically no big hurry to get into a stock until this consolidation pattern is resolved.

chip
67 posts
msg #57982
Ignore chip
12/11/2007 7:19:51 PM

TRO, I'm new at this but last Monday I decided to start using your scan. In 3 trades, I have made 5% and am very stoked.

Since I want to choose my price the night before, I substitute 'close 1 day ago' for 'open', then don't buy if it gaps down. I don't really know how to get in at 'open' since the stocks at the top of your scan usually run up (nice problem to have). So I watch for ones that open at yesterday's close, and when I see I can get it just below yesterday's close -- I buy it.

How very wrong is this?

Thanks.

TheRumpledOne
6,358 posts
msg #57983
Ignore TheRumpledOne
12/11/2007 8:08:14 PM

This is TRADING... there is no RIGHT or WRONG.

There is PROFITABLE and UNPROFITABLE. that's the only statistics that matters.

If you are profitable then keep doing what you are doing and don't change a thing.

Only when you cease to be profitable do you need to "tinker".

I am curious why you don't buy stocks that gap down... usually, fading the gap is profitable.



StockFetcher Forums · General Discussion · NAVI - Thoughts On This Stock - Looking for a 2% Gain Tomorrow<< 1 2 3 >>Post Follow-up

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