StockFetcher Forums · General Discussion · New To Trading<< 1 2 3 4 >>Post Follow-up
travlr
80 posts
msg #30117
Ignore travlr
12/3/2003 7:13:49 PM

The support and sharing on this forum is great(especially the MM'rs).

After studying for over 2 yrs, I've developed a sound base to becoming a prudent active trader. I don't gamble, and the only way I will act is with assured statistical probability. I am about to dive in, so I thought I would seek some friendly advice/comments.

I am quite familiar with the basics, the pros, and pitfalls.
I have WealthLab Developer to program,test, and automate strategies.
I am open to any system that will generate an income for me to live off of.
I am using OPM so my results must be positve right from day one.
I have found intrest in taking profits off the table on a daily baisis, and
would like to avoid holding positions over night.
I guess that I am striving for HG success before making my move.
I have taken a %^%$^ load of time educate myself in becoming the smart money.

Your Comments Are Greatly Appreciated,
Travlr


patefern
7 posts
msg #30118
Ignore patefern
12/3/2003 7:48:58 PM

If you have a fairly successful backtested strategy I can make some suggestions. If you want a fairly successful strategy to backtest that would be something else.

There are ways to stay in a trend and still protect your profits and/or take some profits at the same time holding over night and they involve options on higher priced stocks and the ability to scalp gamma on options.

If your studies show XYZ stock has a high percentage of moving higher (or lower) you can craft a strategy to take advantage of that move that has you in and hedged at the same time. You must be able to call the direction with some degree of acuracy.



travlr
80 posts
msg #30119
Ignore travlr
12/3/2003 8:33:58 PM

patefern,

Thank you for your reply. I have introduced myself the benefits of options but at this time I am anxious to start soley with equities do to the additional needed time to "master" these types of strategies. This is the way I am approaching trading in general to be close to masterful before my first trade.

I looked in depth to various "systems" and "tools". I have found intrest in something called X_Dev by Myst (http://stockwerld.com/xdevwerks.htm). I've nearly duplicated this system with WealthLab and have found it work very good, intraday as well... providing i select a stock that that performs in the desired direction (long / short) that particular day.

So, right now I'm sorting through screens that help me with a preferrable 80/20 + prediction. I am also working hard on a system that works remarkably, reguardless of the market's movements (other then flat obviously). This is possible ... It's just a matter of understanding all the programming issues with WealthLab.

Any further remarks are greatly welcomed,

Thanks,
Travlr


EWZuber
1,373 posts
msg #30123
Ignore EWZuber
12/4/2003 3:29:29 AM

That sounds like a blast playing with trading automation.
I have found that for daytrading, multiple stochastics periodicities combined with trendlines works great. I have been able to pull profits out of some fairly difficult charts ( like WSTL from 11/28 ~ 12/2 ) using this system.


travlr
80 posts
msg #30126
Ignore travlr
12/4/2003 5:48:51 AM

EWZuber,

I haven't even read your post yet.

I want you to know that you have given a great deal of insight to me with your descriptive posts. You seem to be quite accomplished with reading charts and their patterns. I am striving for that instinctual ability.

Further, I have always had an appreciation for stochastics... It was the basis of my initial studies. I would test a Fast3,3 intraday on stocks gapped with news triggering on each crossover (long-short)reguardless of noise. I did this on Barcharts.com and results appeared to always be positive. When arranging WealthLab to backtest this initial idea, I could not get similar crossovers. I don't know why yet because I shelved that simply extreme method for now.

I just read your post... when you say multiple periods how far do you go, Multiple periods for several chart time frames... trendlines and patterns for sure... do you throw any other tid bits into the mix.

Respectfully,
Travlr


travlr
80 posts
msg #30127
Ignore travlr
12/4/2003 5:54:42 AM

Zuber,

P.S. I think I read that you live in the last frontier. A dream of mine.


travlr
80 posts
msg #30129
Ignore travlr
12/4/2003 8:20:46 AM

Question...

Other than succesful filtering and chart verification. How could I insure better odds of success the next day? In other words I have found that even great filters are affected by a negative overall market day.

My thoughts are to trade long with the strongest picks in the best current sector/industries and short the visa versa. But then I think to myself... check to be sure that the great sector isn't due for a drop. I haven't yet researched under what conditions this might happen. Does an entire sector/industy follow along similar characteristical perfomances as any individual equity does?

How much weight should I put on the morning futures and the foriegn markets prior to the open.

How else can I improve the predictability of the ensuing day's market action?
Can you suggest ways that I might consider to dtermine a down market day so as to lean towards shorting.

I am thinking that maybe I should diversify every day with buying the best and shorting the worst within the respective sector/industries, but weighting the probabilaties of an up day.

All Insight Is Greatly Appreciated,
Travlr


EWZuber
1,373 posts
msg #30134
Ignore EWZuber
12/4/2003 2:14:06 PM

Travlr
Usually when I take a position I will go back a couple years to get a feel for the long term trend of the stock. I'll look at the ( sometimes the quarterly ) Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly chart stochastics. For the actual entering of the position, after finding trendlines, support & resistance on daily charts I will focus on the hourly and the 5 minute chart. For daytrades I don't bother evaluating anything longer term than Weekly charts.
Moving averages need to be monitored if they are being used as support/resistance by the stock.
Just these and trendlines is all that is needed.

Trendline breaks must always be confirmed with a stochastic crossover.
For instance ( to enter a position ) a break of trendline resistance should be accompanied by a stochastic fast line cross above the slow line while oversold, indicating a new accumulation phase is beginning.
To close a position a break of a supporting trendline and a fast line cross below the slow line while overbought.
After a while these can be spotted very quickly with little thought given to the process.
Note. where the trendline is broken draw a horizontal line to the right. This is the actual line that needs to be violated. JMHO


EWZuber
1,373 posts
msg #30135
Ignore EWZuber
12/4/2003 3:01:49 PM

I don't recommend shorting stocks if the overall market trend is up. I would reserve shorting for when markets are in a downtrend or at the very least flat.
In a flat market the worst stocks in the worst sectors should be in distribution or a downtrend.
Watch long term ( several year Weekly & Monthly ) charts for changes in the long term trends.
Yes, charting the sectors is important. This will tell you where the big money is going and where it is coming out of.
Futures need to be tempered with stochastics, IMO. If I see that NASDASQ Futures are up 10 points before the open and I also see that the NASDAQ is overbought on the Daily and Hourly chart, I would watch closely for any break of trendline support on the hourly chart. Also watch for an open right below resistance. Under these conditions it is likely the market will hit resistance and bounce down. One could also put in a sell limit order right at or just below some significant resistance to potentially catch a little more profit. On days like these the futures can be a trap for unsuspecting players going long into what at first appears to be strength.
DMI(2) on the hourly chart is also very useful for predicting the next days strength or weakness. I combine this with hourly chart stochastics and they seem to naturally compliment each other.
The only real protection against an unsuspected drop the next day is to hedge your position with options or trade Exchange Traded Funds. The inherent diversification will mitigate any big drop of any single stock in the sector. They trade just like a stock. JMHO


travlr
80 posts
msg #30138
Ignore travlr
12/4/2003 5:29:22 PM

Zuber,

Thank You very much for your time. Please understand how I appreciate it.

To respond to your posts... a couple of observations/questions.

IYO...
* Which Stoch set-ups do keep below your price charts?
* Which SS's for triggers, TL breaks?
// "Moving averages need to be monitored if they are being used as support/resistance by the stock." //
* Which MA's and your focus?
//"To close a position a break of a supporting trendline and a fast line cross below the slow line while overbought."//
* Combination of both?
//"Note. where the trendline is broken draw a horizontal line to the right. This is the actual line that needs to be violated."//
* On a bounce w/ stoch varification?
//"I don't recommend shorting stocks if the overall market trend is up. I would reserve shorting for when markets are in a downtrend or at the very least flat.Watch long term ( several year Weekly & Monthly ) charts for changes in the long term trends."//
* Not shorter-term trend reversals?... makes me a little nervous.

I am trying to associate each sector with appropriate symbols.

DMI for market day or individuals as well?

Currently not set-up on IB for options yet. I thought I'd get involved later.


Because I know you have expressed this before, I hope you don't consider my asks over reaching your curtesy.

Thank You Kindly,
Travlr


StockFetcher Forums · General Discussion · New To Trading<< 1 2 3 4 >>Post Follow-up

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