StockFetcher Forums · General Discussion · Survey: Weekly Market Prediction<< 1 2 >>Post Follow-up
nikoschopen
2,824 posts
msg #45116
Ignore nikoschopen
6/19/2006 12:20:17 PM

Whether ure a market astrologist on steroid like Arch Crawford or a drunken market contrarian of originality, we can prolly use a good dose of market hype on a weekly basis. My main interest, however, is to form a general consensus of where the market is heading in the near term on the basis of various thoughts offered by the SF community. So I ask everyone, regulars & lurkers alike, to take 5-seconds out of ure trading life and post ure inherently respectable views on the market direction for the week.


contrahawk
68 posts
msg #45117
Ignore contrahawk
6/19/2006 1:37:02 PM

I see little reason to expect the market to make a move to the North for its next trick: COMP is well below its 200d EMA and stalled; NYA has rebounded to resistance of its 200d EMA and doesn't look like it intends to break through it.

Jim


nikoschopen
2,824 posts
msg #45119
Ignore nikoschopen
6/19/2006 2:26:43 PM

contrahawk,

Thanks for taking the time to give us ure rationale for the current market condition. Ure premise leads me to believe that there will be a further sell-off in the forseeable future. In ure future post, may I ask that you start by stating in which direction you most likely belive the market is heading. Once again, I appreciate ure input.


contrahawk
68 posts
msg #45121
Ignore contrahawk
6/19/2006 3:30:41 PM

@nikoschopen: I would not like to call my remarks a "prediction"! The market will do what the market will do. At the same time, based on the present indications, I'd expect the market NOT to make its next move in the "up" direction.

Jim


nikoschopen
2,824 posts
msg #45126
Ignore nikoschopen
6/19/2006 5:18:54 PM

As I already indicated in the first post, my purpose is to collect a large sample of views to form a general "consensus" of sentimentóregardless of whether it's a personal opinion or just another baseless prediction.


WALLSTREETGENIUS
983 posts
msg #45134
Ignore WALLSTREETGENIUS
modified
6/19/2006 11:34:07 PM

If you look at the overall condition of the market, you'll see that things are about to change very quickly. Our Fed Chairman just last week gave us a hint that there seems to be no reason for another quarterly rate hike....earnings CONTINUE to look great for the "big boy" stocks, and look at the EPS ratios for all of them....stocks are now again affortable!

Now take a good look at the Linear Regression Channels in all the big caps AND the small caps. As a market whole....it appears we are at rock bottom. Look at the divergence in the "MACD Histogram" of the general market. Look at the "Trix", as well as the "weekly" charts of your favorite stocks! The bottom is here! Case-in-point....look at the "weekly" charts of the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ! Look at the DMA, and the SMA(20)on those weekly charts. Now look back on that same weekly chart in mid August'05. It's an identical set-up for the major "bull market" that I mentioned in my "Histogram Magic" thread.

This is the time that big institutions start their usuall twice a year "bargain buying." It also marks the time when that little known entity called the "TRILATERAL COMMISION" steps in to save the overall market. This is the secret organization that basically runs the world....and LOVES the stock market! Hell...they controll it! Ladies & gentlemen...this all takes place, next week! LOL....even "RMBS" WILL SEE SOME DAYLIGHT!


- Rick -






RistoX
2 posts
msg #45138
Ignore RistoX
6/20/2006 4:23:58 AM

I guess we're all aware that market predictions work in favor of the market. So in general, the predictors tend to be wrong. And, if they happen to be right, we can credit Lady Luck for that. So in the big picture, the market is right and we the market players are wrong. This is "The Rule", with all of it's hidden exceptions like all rules must have, of course.

For these reasons I prefer letting the market lead me and try not to lead myself ahead of the market. I do this by setting up a few visions ("game plans") for the market and act accordingly, when one of these is realized by the market. My visions of the market are based on simple trends, retracement levels, candles - e.g. the pure price movement, though I'm not saying that derived signals from MACD, some common oscillators or more sophisticated moving averages wouldn't do the job. I use some of these most common indicators at times as background information. Just like the saying goes for picking stocks, it really also goes for picking your indicators: It's not what you use - it's how you use it.

This is an interesting thread, as we human beings still like predicting the world and testing our abilities to forecast everything to see how good we are. I can only offer my current visions as my humble amateur opinion and it should be taken as such.

The following few scenarios are short-term (next 2-5 days).
The primary scenario I've prepared for is:

Before yesterday's move, DJ30 looked promising for the bulls. Yesterday it bounced back down from the downtrend line that starts from the peak of May 10 price movement. The 11,060-11,070 area where the bounce occurred also happens to be the area near the Fib. 38.2% retracement level, which is based on the top and bottom of the downswing since May 10. For me this bounce is a rather bearish signal for the coming days and this vision will be strongly confirmed if the DJ30 can't reach and stay strong above 11K today. The other major indices such as the S&P500 and the Nasdaq turned around earlier, way before hitting their downtrend lines. That increases the support for this vision.

These signs tell me this bearish vision has strong support and is most likely to be confirmed today, but my targets remain at the recent market lows, not below them since the short bounce that occurred from these levels had remarkable strength, which often is an early sign of a coming reversal. So in the mid-term timeframe (also described in more detail below), i'll be watching these levels. Again, this is all still my amateur opinion.

There's always two sides of the market to consider, however. Even if you'd be loving one of these sides and hating the other, it wouldn't be too smart to concentrate on only ONE of these sides and ignoring the odds on the other direction. That's why I always try to look both ways. So the seconday scenario, which is less supported by my current signals, is as follows.

If the DJ30 breaks the forementioned downtrend line AND closes above 11,075, I'd consider it VERY bullish. However, I have set this as my secondary vision because by looking at the short-term chart it seems less probable than the first scenario.


In mid-term timeframe (which for me is about 2-3 weeks), we still are in a consistent "bearish mode" and I would only think about the word "reversal" if the Nasdaq Composite surpasses 2150 and makes a low higher than 2070 before that move up. DJ30 would need to make a new local high at around 11,1K as well. Then I'd start cooking a bullish mid-term vision. This will hardly happen over a period of only a day or two, so it'll take some more time, I believe.

These are my visions on the short-term outlook of the market.






markcrisp
187 posts
msg #45139
Ignore markcrisp
6/20/2006 8:03:13 AM

it will fluctuate


PeterJerome
23 posts
msg #45144
Ignore PeterJerome
6/20/2006 10:49:31 AM

50/50 up or down. No guesses here. I'll take what comes and let the market pull me in.
P.


EWZuber
1,373 posts
msg #45158
Ignore EWZuber
6/20/2006 4:55:34 PM

COMP must close this month above the 25 MO.MA @ 2100 or it will drop to test the 50 MO.MA at 1870.
A close significantly below Quarterly Chart TLS @ 2080 (and long term support at the 10 Qtr.MA at 2100) would indicate a bear market.
Weekly Chart is oversold but because the dominant Monthly Chart is in distribution the Weekly Chart accumulation phase can't get off the ground.
Daily Chart is threatening to move back into a distribution phase as this cycle TLS has already been violated and stochastic lines have completely converged (looks ST bearish).
On the bright side the angle on the 25 DMA is beginning to flatten out just a tad and weaken as resistance.
The only chance this rally has of continuing,IMO, is to hold the 50 HR.MA at 2108. If that is violated as support COMP will drop down to close the gap at 2086.


StockFetcher Forums · General Discussion · Survey: Weekly Market Prediction<< 1 2 >>Post Follow-up

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