StockFetcher Forums · General Discussion · Swing Trading Ideas and methods<< 1 ... 15 16 17 18 19 ... 98 >>Post Follow-up
Eman93
4,659 posts
msg #78486
Ignore Eman93
9/2/2009 12:53:11 AM

OCLS

Eman93
4,659 posts
msg #78487
Ignore Eman93
9/2/2009 1:22:55 AM

Smart Money Analysis-Betting on a CF takeover 09/02 12:02 AM



* Hedge funds bet that CF will get bought by Agrium (AGU/WI:...)
* Arb spread favors Agrium-CF deal over CF-Terra deal (For other stories in this series on hedge fund activity in the second quarter, click on [ID:nN01502629])
By Euan Rocha
TORONTO, Sept 2 (Reuters) - Major hedge funds have started to build positions in U.S. fertilizer maker CF Industries Holdings Inc (CF:$80.00,00$-1.66,00-2.03%) , betting it will be bought by larger Canadian rival Agrium Inc (AGU/WI:...) even as CF continues to spurn the takeover bid.
Agrium (AGU/WI:...) has twice-sweetened its offer and last bid $40 in cash and one common share for each CF share, implying a deal value of about $4.19 billion, or $86.44 per share.
CF maintains that Agrium (AGU/WI:...) is undervaluing the company and is trying to derail CF's own bid for Terra Industries Inc (TRA:$30.43,00$-0.68,00-2.19%) , another fertilizer producer.
"While CF management is determined to pursue the Terra deal, we suspect that CF shareholders are reluctant to pay a premium for Terra while Agrium (AGU/WI:...) is offering them a premium," said Broadpoint AmTech analyst Edlain Rodriguez.
An analysis by Thomson Reuters of U.S. regulatory filings show growing interest from hedge funds in CF, the third-largest producer and distributor of nitrogen and phosphate fertilizer products in North America.
Eton Park Capital Management, Third Point LLC, Och-Ziff Capital Management, Scoggin Capital Management, Noonday Asset Management, Halcyon Asset Management and Paulson & Co all bought into CF during the second quarter.
The funds now collectively own more than 11 percent of CF's outstanding shares and are among its 20 largest investors.
Hedge funds made similar bets on drugmakers Wyeth (WYE:$47.79,00$-0.06,00-0.13%) and Schering Plough (SGP:$27.79,00$-0.39,00-1.38%) earlier this year, following buyout offers, and both deals are now well on their way to closing.
None of these funds cite Terra Industries or Agrium (AGU/WI:...) among their top holdings in the second quarter.
Representatives of the various funds either declined to comment, or were not reachable for comment.
(Click on [ID:nN01234966] for details on top plays by hedge funds in the second quarter)
ARBITRAGE SPREAD
Agrium (AGU/WI:...) , a Calgary, Alberta-based fertilizer maker and agricultural products retailer, launched its first bid to take over Deerfield, Illinois-based CF Industries (CF:$80.00,00$-1.66,00-2.03%) in February.
Since then, CF shares have soared more than 60 percent to trade at around $80 a share, roughly 10 times expected 2009 earnings.
Arbitrage spreads indicate far greater investor confidence in the success of an Agrium-CF deal, over a CF-Terra deal.
The arb spread, a measure of the difference between a company's share price and the price a buyer is offering, is 8 percent on the Agrium-CF deal, while the spread on the CF-Terra deal is more than 22 percent.
A wider spread typically indicates investor skepticism that a deal will close.
"It does seem to be tilted in favor of the Agrium-CF deal at present," said Morningstar analyst Ben Johnson.
"Sentiment has been swaying back and forth. But the expansion in the spread on CF-Terra and the contraction of the spread on Agrium-CF has become more apparent now than at any other time I can recall in the recent memory."
Nonetheless, CF is still looking for a better price and arbitrage investors have indicated they are hoping for a $5 to $10 increase in Agrium's (AGU/WI:...) bid.
Broadpoint's Rodriguez contends that CF is trading at a premium to its fair value, which he pegs at $75 a share.
Rodriguez believes that unless Agrium (AGU/WI:...) raises its offer further, CF's management will continue to reject the bid.
"We sense that Agrium's (AGU/WI:...) bid would have to value CF at above $100/share for management to seriously entertain the deal," Rodriguez said.
For a list of the top 30 hedge funds, go to http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/089/US_HDGFND0809.jpg
For a pie chart of the portfolio breakdown by sector, go to http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/089/US_HLDVAL0809.jpg
For a graph on the change in market value by sector, go to http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/089/US_MKTVAL0809.jpg (Editing by Ted Kerr)

bocacob
3 posts
msg #78499
Ignore bocacob
9/2/2009 11:26:57 AM

I was wondering if anyone uses Stoch Slow for Intraday entry & exit? CCI also?
Thanks

Eman93
4,659 posts
msg #78567
Ignore Eman93
modified
9/3/2009 8:38:57 PM

updated

kmcninvest
43 posts
msg #78569
Ignore kmcninvest
9/3/2009 9:19:04 PM

I bought AMED on news that CEO and CIO left suddenly. It dropped 25%. It was an IBD 100 so I thought it was a good buy. Bought at 33.40. It dropped below 30 and I was trying to stay calm. It is at 34.80 in after hours. By the way, I found this using Kevin's IBD scan.

Eman93
4,659 posts
msg #78574
Ignore Eman93
9/3/2009 10:24:36 PM

OK I went a littel nuts today and bought some crap (ELON) I prob shoundnt have.......let this be a lesson plan your trades and trade your plan....what ever the hell that means? LOL

I bought ELN @ 7.25 , ELN is a good trade the set up was good, nice volume on the first leg up today. just bad timing with the news....in this market it will rally in some wierd way that i have yet to understand, its some kind of less bad than what was already priced in???????

I think I am on to something, you buy on badnews and sell on good news...right......is it me or is this how it is done?

Now really really bad or good news dose what it should move it in that direction....so how to tell?

I bought ELON at 10.90 its a smart grid play....was breaking out at the close above 10.80. Not a lot of vol on this one .. looking for 1 to 2 points on this.

johnpaulca
11,297 posts
msg #78576
Ignore johnpaulca
9/4/2009 12:40:59 AM

Eman..I think this is an excellent swing trade but will require time to develop....goodluck.

Eman93
4,659 posts
msg #78622
Ignore Eman93
9/4/2009 1:22:31 PM

sold most of ELON at 11.30
kept 200 shares....had 700 total

Eman93
4,659 posts
msg #78649
Ignore Eman93
modified
9/4/2009 7:24:33 PM

Eman93
- Edit message 9/2/2009 1:22:55 AM

Smart Money Analysis-Betting on a CF takeover 09/02 12:02 AM
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I should take my own advice.......LOL

Fetcher[ symlist(CF)
offset 09/03/09
]



Kevin_in_GA
4,548 posts
msg #78650
Ignore Kevin_in_GA
9/4/2009 7:38:26 PM

I bought AMED on news that CEO and CIO left suddenly. It dropped 25%. It was an IBD 100 so I thought it was a good buy. Bought at 33.40. It dropped below 30 and I was trying to stay calm. It is at 34.80 in after hours. By the way, I found this using Kevin's IBD scan.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

I saw this one as well - you should have bought in this morning at 35.41 - did you run the scan before the end of the day yesterday and buy in then?

Close was at 35.00, according the the chart. I was scared s***less about that drop. I bought into Netflix instead (the other one the scan pulled up).

BTW, there are two versions of this scan - one waits for the close to be above the previous day's close, which was below the BB(16,2.5), the other jumps in at the open after the drop. Not sure which one works best yet - a lot of the stocks made profit right after the drop below the BB, so waiting for confirmation of a bounce may be less profitable than just leaping in.

StockFetcher Forums · General Discussion · Swing Trading Ideas and methods<< 1 ... 15 16 17 18 19 ... 98 >>Post Follow-up

*** Disclaimer *** StockFetcher.com does not endorse or suggest any of the securities which are returned in any of the searches or filters. They are provided purely for informational and research purposes. StockFetcher.com does not recommend particular securities. StockFetcher.com, Vestyl Software, L.L.C. and involved content providers shall not be liable for any errors or delays in the content, or for any actions taken based on the content.


Copyright 2016 - Vestyl Software L.L.C.Terms of Service | License | Questions or comments? Contact Us
EOD Data sources: DDFPlus & CSI Data Quotes delayed during active market hours. Delay times are at least 15 mins for NASDAQ, 20 mins for NYSE and Amex. Delayed intraday data provided by DDFPlus