StockFetcher Forums · General Discussion · my holygrail<< 1 2 3 4 >>Post Follow-up
janeiro
25 posts
msg #48909
Ignore janeiro
modified
1/4/2007 6:44:26 AM

GOOD TO SEE YA BACK & HAPPY NEW YEAR TOO! WALLMAN








Muddy
55 posts
msg #49318
Ignore Muddy
1/16/2007 10:16:19 PM

maxxam80

12/17/2006 7:28:45 AM

"well after using this service for 3 months I think I have found my holygrail

www.2dayhold.com "

Another month has gone by.
Still doing good Maxxam?


killertrader
18 posts
msg #49707
Ignore killertrader
1/30/2007 12:47:25 PM

Another month has gone by.
Still doing good Maxxam?

I joined this service and I have been doing great with it. I am very interested, however, in trying to reverse-engineer the system. I know their system is proprietary, but their picks for last year are posted on their website. Got to be some way to figure it out. It has something to do with several down days, then finding a short-term bottom. I'd like to "teach myself how to fish" instead of blindly following their picks [but blindly following their picks may be the secret].


killertrader
18 posts
msg #50050
Ignore killertrader
2/15/2007 5:28:11 PM

2DayHold folded today, due to "career opportunities." There goes my holy grail.


cmeade2
9 posts
msg #50079
Ignore cmeade2
2/16/2007 9:31:01 PM

Well, if they folded it's probably ok to post my reverse engineering of their system. It starts with Williams %(14) =-100 (or sometimes up to ~ -99.7). After that, you have to add a few more criteria because there can be a bunch of stocks, and sometimes, none of them are suitable. Making sure you are at least 5% below dma(28, -14) and at the bottom of a linear regression channel is usually very helpful. If you backtest with these criteria, and a two day hold, you will see that the returns can be very good.


killertrader
18 posts
msg #50083
Ignore killertrader
2/16/2007 11:54:36 PM

OK, I fell for it. I actually tried it:

Fetcher[
Show stocks where Williams %R (14) is below -98.00
and price is near the bottom linear regression line(45)
and close is 5% below dma(28,-14)
and close is between 10 and 80
and average volume(90) is above 100000
draw dma(28,-14)
]



Not pretty.



cmeade2
9 posts
msg #50088
Ignore cmeade2
2/17/2007 8:47:03 AM

In general williams %r(14) =-98 is too high. When I looked at the picks on 2dayhold.com almost all of them were -100, except for a few exceptions.

When their site was operational, and they posted their historical picks, I used the following approach to reverse engineer their system. I put together a simple filter that picked stocks where williams %r(14) was -100 2 days ago. I would include a number of other indicators for 2 days ago (e.g, rsi(2), % below dma(28, -14). Then I would include the return I would have received if I had bought it at the open and sold it at the close the next day (this was the 2dayhold system).

This way I could step through in time, looking at the characteristics of their picks, and looking at the stocks with the highest return for that period. Quite often they did not pick the best performing stock. In general, I was not able to identify simple criteria (e.g., rsi(2) <1) that always generated their pick. Nonetheless I found a number of approaches that seem to work pretty well (e.g., picking one stock and sorting on % below dma).

It seems that the overall goal for this approach is to generate a large number of 2-day trades with an average return above 2%.


Muddy
55 posts
msg #50089
Ignore Muddy
2/17/2007 9:16:16 AM

It's Fast stochastic fast%k(14)at 0 combined with Williams%r(10)-100.
Looks like they used only over $5 stocks.

If you looked at the past year picks posted on that site you'd have seen 95% of the picks were these.
Some days there are no matches,that's why the 95%

That angle was mentioned several times on the Public Forum List for FREE on 10/28 in the setup for the Fast%reversal method.


dunamis
18 posts
msg #49743
Ignore dunamis
modified
2/17/2007 2:59:13 PM





dunamis
18 posts
msg #50099
Ignore dunamis
modified
2/17/2007 3:04:03 PM





StockFetcher Forums · General Discussion · my holygrail<< 1 2 3 4 >>Post Follow-up

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