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MARY4MONEY
806 posts
msg #82543
Ignore MARY4MONEY
11/6/2009 7:30:20 AM

look at cvs from yesterday-and amzn from several weeks ago28.87 Last as of 11/5/2009
CVSKW 0.90 -6.20 16,043.00 0.85 0.90 7,868.00 29.00 CVSWW 0.85 +0.80 11,211.00 0.85 0.90 7,470.00
CVSKF 0.50 -6.00 50,037.00 0.45 0.50 27,478.00 30.00 CVSWF 1.50 +1.46 9,656.00 1.40 1.55 9,641.00
CVSKR 0.25 -4.95 8,925.00 0.20 0.30 4,900.00 31.00 CVSWR 2.55 +2.50 86.00 2.20 2.30 1,189.00
CVSKZ 0.10 -3.87 5,739.00 0.05 0.10 6,308.00 32.50 CVSWZ 3.50 +3.30 164.00 3.50 3.70 4,140.00
CVSKQ 0.05 -2.60 802.00 0.05 0.05 1,954.00 34.00 CVSWQ 5.47 +5.05 576.00 5.00 5.10 4,457.00
CVSKG 0.05 -1.75 726.00 0.05 0.05 4,541.00 35.00 CVSWG 6.40 +5.80 196.00 6.00 6.10 8,481.00
CVSKM 0.05 -1.09 712.00 0.05 8,298.00 36.00 CVSWM 7.03 +5.97 30.00 6.90 7.20 4,645.
the 31 put went from 0.05 to 2.75 at its high yesterday--i know the smart money does their trading the sessions last hour and the dumb money does the first hour- i know that big volume spikes before earnings seems proportional to the move in most cases-- option activity is helpful too if you can tell whether they areseeling or buying ther calls before earnings-- and i know option slam gives you the last 4 earnings moves free- and what % of the time it moves more than 14% after earnings--cvs gave no indication it would move this much--CVS Historical Earnings Price Movement Statistics Earning Date Previous Days Close Movement Within One Trading Day Days Left to Options Expiration Price Movement until Options Expiration
Star Max Movement Final Movement Max Movement Final Movement
Aug 04, 2009 $34 +4.41% -0.05% 17 +5.41% +5.05%
May 05, 2009 $32.03 +6.83% -0.71% 10 +6.83% -3.84%
Feb 19, 2009 $26.99 +9.7% +6.37% 1 +9.7% +3.07%
Oct 30, 2008 $26.31 +12.69% +11.44% 22 +23.64% +0.3%
but amzn did------AMZN Historical Earnings Price Movement Statistics Earning Date Previous Days Close Movement Within One Trading Day Days Left to Options Expiration Price Movement until Options Expiration
Star Max Movement Final Movement Max Movement Final Movement
Jul 23, 2009 $93.87 -8.91% -7.86% 29 -14.5% -9.44%
Apr 23, 2009 $80.61 +7.53% +4.77% 22 -9.05% -8.69%
Jan 29, 2009 $50 +19.48% +17.64% 22 +34.72% +27.72%
Oct 22, 2008 $49.99 -13.36% +0.66% 30 -30.62% -24.24%

and rimm moves---RIMM Historical Earnings Price Movement Statistics Earning Date Previous Days Close Movement Within One Trading Day Days Left to Options Expiration Price Movement until Options Expiration
Star Max Movement Final Movement Max Movement Final Movement
Sep 24, 2009 $83.06 -17.56% -17.03% 22 -21.83% -19.44%
Jun 18, 2009 $76.55 -5.29% -4.92% 1 -5.29% -4.92%
Apr 02, 2009 $49.09 +24.15% +20.77% 15 +41.02% +39.23%
Dec 18, 2008 $38.44 +12.4% +11.42% 1 +12.4% +11.42%

apol moves--APOL Historical Earnings Price Movement Statistics Earning Date Previous Days Close Movement Within One Trading Day Days Left to Options Expiration Price Movement until Options Expiration
Star Max Movement Final Movement Max Movement Final Movement
Jun 29, 2009 $65.99 +9.86% +7.77% 18 +9.86% +1.48%
Mar 31, 2009 $78.33 -19% -15.15% 17 -23.87% -15.31%
Jan 08, 2009 $77.22 +13.45% +10.42% 8 +16% +15.54%
Oct 28, 2008 $58.87 +19.89% +10.42% 24 +21.96% +19.05
sanm moves-SANM Historical Earnings Price Movement Statistics Earning Date Previous Days Close Movement Within One Trading Day Days Left to Options Expiration Price Movement until Options Expiration
Star Max Movement Final Movement Max Movement Final Movement
Jul 22, 2009 $2.7 +24.44% +24.44% 30 +100% +77.77%
Apr 22, 2009 $0.55 -16.36% -16.36% 23 -27.27% +1.81%
Jan 21, 2009 $0.38 -15.78% -15.78% 30 -26.31% -26.31%
Oct 29, 2008 $0.65 -6.15% -1.53% 23 -58.46% -47.69%
also you want to note how much a stock moves on an average for each option month--sanm really movesOptions Month Expire Date Earning Date Initial Price Max Price Min Price Final Price Max Final
October 2009 Oct 16, 2009 $8.77 $9.15 $7.45 $8.84 -15.05% +0.79%
September 2009 Sep 18, 2009 $5.25 $8.83 $4.95 $8.81 +68.19% +67.8%
August 2009 Aug 21, 2009 Jul 22, 2009 $2.82 $5.4 $2.7 $4.8 +91.48% +70.21%
July 2009 Jul 17, 2009 $0.46 $0.53 $0.36 $0.46 -21.73% -0%
June 2009 Jun 19, 2009 $0.6 $0.72 $0.49 $0.5 +20% -16.66%
May 2009 May 15, 2009 Apr 22, 2009 $0.49 $0.66 $0.4 $0.56 +34.69% +14.28%
April 2009 Apr 17, 2009 $0.31 $0.52 $0.28 $0.5 +67.74% +61.29%
March 2009 Mar 20, 2009 $0.27 $0.31 $0.17 $0.28 -37.03% +3.7%
Feburary 2009 Feb 20, 2009 Jan 21, 2009 $0.39 $0.4 $0.28 $0.28 -28.2% -28.2%
January 2009 Jan 16, 2009 $0.5 $0.53 $0.34 $0.38 -32% -24%
December 2008 Dec 19, 2008 $0.48 $0.7 $0.39 $0.46 +45.83% -4.16%
November 2008 Nov 21, 2008 Oct 29, 2008 $0.9 $0.92 $0.27 $0.34 -70% -62.22%

as dose bac-- Options Month Expire Date Earning Date Initial Price Max Price Min Price Final Price Max Final
October 2009 Oct 16, 2009 Oct 16, 2009 $17.25 $19.1 $15.62 $17.26 +10.72% +0.05%
September 2009 Sep 18, 2009 $17.34 $18.23 $16.02 $17.63 -7.61% +1.67%
August 2009 Aug 21, 2009 $12.24 $17.6 $11.93 $17.46 +43.79% +42.64%
July 2009 Jul 17, 2009 Jul 17, 2009 $11.94 $13.62 $11.27 $12.89 +14.07% +7.95%
June 2009 Jun 19, 2009 $11.72 $13.92 $10.56 $13.22 +18.77% +12.79%
May 2009 May 15, 2009 Apr 20, 2009 $8.02 $15.07 $7 $10.67 +87.9% +33.04%
April 2009 Apr 17, 2009 $7.8 $11.58 $6.01 $10.6 +48.46% +35.89%
March 2009 Mar 20, 2009 $3.9 $8.57 $3 $6.19 +119.74% +58.71%
Feburary 2009 Feb 20, 2009 $5.1 $7.81 $2.52 $3.79 +53.13% -25.68%
January 2009 Jan 16, 2009 Jan 16, 2009 $13.53 $14.81 $7 $7.18 -48.26% -46.93%
December 2008 Dec 19, 2008 $14.27 $18 $12.48 $13.8 +26.13% -3.29%
November 2008 Nov 21, 2008 $24.4 $24.92 $10.01 $11.47 -58.97% -52.99%



karennma
6,827 posts
msg #82545
Ignore karennma
11/6/2009 8:00:03 AM

I agree.
We can do it if we work together.
We've got a good team here. I just think some people are "afraid" of being wrong.
No one should be embarrassed if they are wrong.
It's part of the learning process ... and it's part of trading.
Keep up the good work everyone!
:>)


karennma
6,827 posts
msg #82546
Ignore karennma
11/6/2009 8:41:31 AM

MARY4MONEY
- MARY4MONEY 11/6/2009 7:30:20 AM

if you can tell whether they areseeling or buying ther calls before earnings--

=====================================================================

Ahhh!! Therein lies the rub!
For example, if you go to www.whatstrading.com ...
they might show stock XYZ - "70% calls, 30% puts".
HOWEVER... that could be 70% calls, 60% of which were SOLD, which is a SHORT position ... !


Eman93
4,659 posts
msg #82548
Ignore Eman93
11/6/2009 8:46:51 AM

You need to look at the on the ask or bid % .....high ask% and buying ......high bid% and selling

karennma
6,827 posts
msg #82559
Ignore karennma
11/6/2009 9:28:16 AM

Eman:
yeah, i'm looking at it ...
very HEAVY selling on AIG.


karennma
6,827 posts
msg #82566
Ignore karennma
11/6/2009 9:55:38 AM

M4M - see my posts on "earnings plays". ....
unfortunately, we don't have enough FULL-TIME traders on this board who want to do this.



tmanbone
124 posts
msg #82614
Ignore tmanbone
modified
11/6/2009 9:40:05 PM

M4M, what about buy limit stops above price and sell limit stops below, just before earnings. CVS for example on 11-04-09 the high was 36.66 the low 35.71; for this example I'll use the stock; on 11-04 at the close set a buy limit stop at 36.71, also set a sell limit stop at 35.66; on 11-05 pre market the sell stop would have triggered for a $6 and change move. Could this idea be applied to your option trades?

StockFetcher Forums · General Discussion · we all have to work together to find a system that is very accurate -for earnings<< >>Post Follow-up

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