shillllihs
5,974 posts
msg #129677
- Ignore shillllihs
modified |
7/8/2016 11:59:51 AM
Change of plan. First purchase of Tvix at 1.72. 12% position.
Looking to get in cheaper.
Started with 7g now worth 21g. This is cash I have no problem losing. I will let
it ride as if I am at a crap table in Vegas, the only real way to make money.
I don't go to bars and don't smoke cigs so no biggie.
My goal is to win Big within 24 months if I don't lose it all.
If goes as planned, could turn this into 700,000 by then...
Disclaimer: This system and the way I am playing it, is extremely dangerous if
you are a broke-ass and cannot afford to lose money... you & I will probably
lose all our gambled cash so do not try it.
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c1916
77 posts
msg #129680
- Ignore c1916 |
7/8/2016 1:26:40 PM
I've been legging into TVIX and UVXY over the past couple of months. Volatility WILL return to the market, it just seems to be a matter of when. I think the idea of turning 21k into 700k is probably a stretch (but I hope you're right as that would benefit me as well). The days of TVIX at $100 are unlikely to be revisited in my lifetime. I'm looking for a four-bagger here with a ten-bagger being the limits of my optimistic viewpoint.
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c1916
77 posts
msg #129681
- Ignore c1916 |
7/8/2016 1:28:29 PM
And, like Shills, this is play money. I'm about 75% cash. I do not trust this rally, and am not even thinking about buying into these gains with retirement funding.
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pthomas215
1,251 posts
msg #129682
- Ignore pthomas215 |
7/8/2016 1:52:26 PM
shillihs, I'm sure you know at $1.72 or less, TVIX is a gift.
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shillllihs
5,974 posts
msg #129683
- Ignore shillllihs |
7/8/2016 1:58:59 PM
Let's hope so. Why do you think it's a gift here?
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pthomas215
1,251 posts
msg #129684
- Ignore pthomas215 |
7/8/2016 2:18:17 PM
well, as you imply, we never know anything for sure. but Im basing it on support and resistance levels, history of not being in this range, reaching a new 52-week low today, and the lower acceleration band(20) was reached around 1.76 or so. I say its a gift for the type of swing trading Ive been doing. Most likely it will hit 2 bucks in a day or so and I will be happy with 30 cents. the odds of this cost basis being poor positioning seem to be slim, but who the hell knows ha
whats confusing the hell out of me right now is the relationship between the market, gold stocks like KGC and gold bear stocks like DUST. DUST is once again looking like a good buy, but if the market tanks on Monday KGC would most likely go up yet again. dont know what DUST would do.
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shillllihs
5,974 posts
msg #129687
- Ignore shillllihs |
7/8/2016 2:28:50 PM
Check out the filter I posted a few days ago. Dust may continue down up to 50%
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pthomas215
1,251 posts
msg #129688
- Ignore pthomas215 |
7/8/2016 2:36:32 PM
ok thanks. Meant to also say S&P is probably going to reach an all time high. further support of long on TVIX. Labor participation rate is abysmal. it seems like wall street will wake up on Monday with a hangover and realize there isnt a great earning growth story and economic fundamentals are not so great.
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pthomas215
1,251 posts
msg #129692
- Ignore pthomas215 |
7/9/2016 12:01:35 PM
shillihs, I dont want to beat a dead horse but this is the most difficult time to navigate waters in my humble opinion. there are a lot of moving parts, and fundamental analysis can trump technicals often. ie bad earnings coming out even though technicals look great.
FED manipulates the market. my guess is that in the short term volatility has to come back due to pressure on janet yellen and fed. if the market continually soars, there will be pressure on the fed to increase rates again. especially from the white house wanting a great legacy. increasing rates sends a positive signal to the market that things really are better. she won't do this because she knows the economy really is fragile. job growth is not what they say it is (new jobs were verizon folks coming back from a strike, under-employment is rampant, labor participation rate bad). corporate earnings are not good either. so increasing the cost of borrowing would create many more foreclosures since many folks have a floating rate. janet yellen does not want to go down as the worst fed chair in history either.
If the market goes down too much, fed will receive pressure from the democrats who influence the market. Janet Yellen herself is a democrat, greenspan, most economists, warren buffet, george soros.....all democrats. they are not going to sit quietly and let the market tank on an obama watch before the biggest election in our history. and if you think this is crazy talk, think of Hillary Clinton possibly being promoted to president after exposing government secrets to other countries who want to crush and kill us. not making a political statement or anything. just facts on how everything is manipulated nowadays to fit narratives. I do think there will be an October rally given my prior points but I cant imagine it would start this early. Im betting on continued volatility...
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shillllihs
5,974 posts
msg #129693
- Ignore shillllihs
modified |
7/9/2016 12:33:20 PM
In an honest world, news & fundamentals make sense, but this is not.
I don't believe in them, why, because they can spin them any way they want.
Sometimes they will tell you something and the market will act accordingly &
other times they will tell you oh that's already baked in. So basically it's 50/50.
Learn how to play 1 ETF that you know in & out. Look for repeating patterns &
have 4-5 indicators to get you in & out of it. I have 2 backups for my system if my
No.1 indicator fails. I also think it's better to look at longer time frames as
it takes time to move large sums of money around. I also think it's safer to play
ETFs than a stock. Not guarenteed but I think better than relying on
crooked news & manipulated fundamentals.
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