TheRumpledOne
6,407 posts
msg #81852
- Ignore TheRumpledOne |
10/27/2009 2:49:01 PM
"I was under the impression that Regression is a statistical method to forecast the future based on the past behavior of the data within certain limits and degree of confidence. No? "
And most fund managers can't beat the index. What's that tell you about their methods of "prediction"?
FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT
"After a full cycle of rise and fall after which stocks were valued just where they were at the start, all his clients lost money (Don Guyon, 1909).
Many academic works suggest that most managers underperform "buy-and-hold" strategy; persistence of winners is very rare, etc.
Most funds consistently fail to overperform random strategies (dart throwing)."
OVER-OPTIMIZATION
Rats beat humans in simple games
People makes STORIES!
"Normal people have an "interpreter" in their left brain that takes all the random, contradictory details of whatever they are doing or remembering at the moment, and smoothes everything in one coherent story. If there are details that do not fit, they are edited out or revised!"
(T. Grandin and C. Johnson, Animals in translation (Scribner,
New York, 2005)
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Walid
130 posts
msg #82013
- Ignore Walid |
10/29/2009 10:57:54 AM
Eman, I was – still am – under some pressure between work and studying for my Master’s. Thanks for asking, I hope I didn’t miss a lot of fun.
TRO, I didn’t think you are trying to force me – or anyone else – to believe what you do. Neither do I ask you to believe what I said. I just added my 2 cents that all. By the way, the only group, I am aware of -that uses regression – indirectly at least – to trade is the buy and hold group of trader as they base their decision – partially – on the Beta. How ironic is that if seen in the light of your argument?
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TheRumpledOne
6,407 posts
msg #82047
- Ignore TheRumpledOne |
10/29/2009 4:39:56 PM
Argument?
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Eman93
4,750 posts
msg #82079
- Ignore Eman93 |
10/29/2009 10:59:49 PM
timfor
- Ignore timfor 10/27/2009 10:28:14 AM
Hello,
FIrst of all a big thank you to TRO and others who have responded to my questions regarding the milk the cows strategy. I'm reading and re-reading this thread constantly to try and improve my understanding of how to trade this method.
I need assistance in one area that I'm struggling with and I'm hopeful that someone can assist.
Namely, in the span of a one minute candle, the color of the candle can change rapidly between green and red. If I understand this method correctly, you should only be entering a long or short (respectively) on a green or red candle as it enters the buy zone. I have seen firsthand a green candle enter a long buy zone (in the proper direction to fade the gap) only to turn red and then green and then finally close red outside of the long buy zone. If one had bought the long (when the candle was green) upon entering the long buy zone, one would have been stopped out...more then likely at loss (albeit small). The green candle only went about 5 cents into the long buy zone, but with an entry at the open plus 10 cents, a fill would have likley occurred, even with a limit order.
I realize that there must be some type of distinctions being made during this period of red/green/red/green, etc. candle movement that could help me better master this method. Alternatively, perhaps taking the loss is simply part of the risk of entering the trade based on this method and that you may have to enter several times until the candle moves more aggressively in the direction that is favorable to your trade.
Any insights, comments or suggestions on this specific issue would be greatly appreciated as I am eager to learn!!
Thanks in advance to anyone who can help me on this and become a better trader.
Tim
==============================================================
The first 5 min is a wild ride.... the best way would be to automate the thing and have a computer do it. I belive what you see in the first 5 min is computer trading.... and your not quicker than a computer....
next figuer out your max risk on each trade 50 100 1000 come up with a number ....... figuring from you cash and margin calculate the max number of trades per day. I think this is all in this thread some place.
Then just take every trade that crosses into the zone....untill you run out of turns for that day.
I would say practice this until you make money for a solid month then use real cash.
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timfor
17 posts
msg #82325
- Ignore timfor |
11/3/2009 11:01:15 AM
Eman93
Thanks for your comments. Much appreciated.
I'd like to ask any other traders out there who are trading this method for their comments regarding my previous post.
I figure there has to be someone who has come up with a reasonable way to ascertain long or short entries within a buy zone while the candlestick is bouncing between red and green intrabar.
I look forward to your comments.
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TheRumpledOne
6,407 posts
msg #82327
- Ignore TheRumpledOne |
11/3/2009 11:15:24 AM
FADE THE GAP until the gap fills.
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TheRumpledOne
6,407 posts
msg #83502
- Ignore TheRumpledOne |
11/25/2009 6:28:16 PM
Your Money & Your Brain
Written by Jason Zweig
http://www.indexuniverse.com/publications/journalofindexes/joi-articles/4226-your-money-a-your-brain.html?Itemid=11
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tmanbone
124 posts
msg #83514
- Ignore tmanbone |
11/25/2009 11:49:48 PM
TRO,
Thanks for the book recommendation; caught your post at Kreslik a few days earlier. I'm curious if you put an average on your reading time, where would you estimate it to be, 24/7 minus sleep?
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stratiG
147 posts
msg #83521
- Ignore stratiG |
11/26/2009 9:17:06 PM
Very interesting, I put the book on the Christmas wish list.
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four
5,087 posts
msg #83530
- Ignore four
modified |
11/27/2009 10:56:10 AM
I traded (for real) WYNN - 1000 shares
I made .35 (after commission) with Fade The Gap (FTG by TRO).
Two round trips.
Thanks for the early present :-)
--update--
I did leave a few dimes on the table. Hopefully, someone picked them up.
--update--
"Change the way you look at things, and the things you look at change."
The Power of Intention: Learning to Co-create Your World Your Way -- Dr. Wayne W. Dyer
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