Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #132273
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
11/1/2016 10:23:31 AM
Getting killed on the TVIX trade. My system triggered a second short signal last night so my adding a second unit yesterday at $18.00, while early, was not too far from what I would have entered at the open this morning. The DWTI and ERY trades are slightly better but not nearly enough to offset the volatility trade.
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #132289
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
11/1/2016 4:33:46 PM
Rough day, but I will stick by my system guidance for each of these trades and wait for the exit signal to be triggered.
| OPEN TRADES | DATE OPENED | OPEN PRICE | SHARES SOLD | CURRENT PRICE | DATE CLOSED | NET GAIN/LOSS (%) | NET GAIN/LOSS ($) |
|---|
| SHORT ERY | 10/28/2016 | $13.00 | 2000 | $13.36 | - - - - - | -2.77% | -$720 | | SHORT DWTI | 10/31/2016 | $68.75 | 1000 | $71.60 | - - - - - | -4.14% | -$2850 | | SHORT TVIX | 10/31/2016 | $17.55 | 4000 | $19.10 | - - - - - | -8.83% | -$6200 |
| CLOSED TRADES | DATE OPENED | OPEN PRICE | SHARES SOLD | CLOSE PRICE | DATE CLOSED | NET GAIN/LOSS (%) | NET GAIN/LOSS ($) |
|---|
| SHORT ERY | 10/21/2016 | $12.70 | 2000 | $12.35 | 10/25/2016 | +2.75% | +$661 | | SHORT ERX | 10/25/2016 | $32.50 | 1000 | $31.85 | 10/25/2016 | +2.00% | +$639 | | SHORT ERY | 10/25/2016 | $12.85 | 2000 | $12.59 | 10/26/2016 | +2.02% | +$501 | | SHORT DWTI | 10/26/2016 | $63.25 | 500 | $60.66 | 10/26/2016 | +4.09% | +$1287 | | SHORT ERX | 10/27/2016 | $32.50 | 1000 | $31.73 | 10/27/2016 | +2.37% | +$759 | | SHORT NUGT | 10/28/2016 | $13.00 | 2000 | $12.47 | 10/28/2016 | +4.08% | +$1043 | | SHORT UWTI | 10/28/2016 | $25.75 | 1000 | $25.00 | 10/27/2016 | +2.91% | +$739 |
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #132300
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
11/2/2016 9:46:04 AM
The losses on the energy short trades here, specifically DWTI are getting too high. This morning I will be looking at DWTI above 75 which is simply too large - there is no evidence I can point to for this trade to mean-revert right now, so I will exit both DWTI and ERY at the open and wait on TVIX until after the Fed announcement at 2 PM. While volatility is mean-reverting oil and other commodities are often more likely to keep trending.
My account was up 16% over the last two months so I can afford to take these on the chin and still be well ahead of the market as a whole. Not pleased with the DWTI trade as it was not triggered by my systems but rather was a purely discretionary trade I put on. Even with the recent run up my UWTI/DWTI short system is not triggering a trade - it has three open short trades that are all down which is why I played this after getting in at a better price, but there was no actual signal to short it this week. That is a lack of discipline on my part after a very good run of trades that probably left me less cautious than I should have been about the market dynamics so close to the election.
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #132311
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
11/2/2016 1:27:37 PM
Further self-assessment on these latest trades - I traded too large in dollars and total shares, and did so without a clearly defined stop loss. I used a Van Tharp Position sizing algorithm for Pangolin Z that should have been implemented on all of these short trades.
Here is the code that I will be using for managing these short positions going forward:
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #132392
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
11/7/2016 1:14:34 PM
While I bailed on the TVIX trade last week, it was generated from a SS multi-system that had called a short trade 215 times in the last five years with a win percentage of 94.88%. Looks like this one has resolved itself profitably after today's massive correction. Too late for me - the level of discomfort at the trade size I had on was too much, but I do need to trust in the system more.
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #132408
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
11/8/2016 12:12:48 PM
GTC limit order - short 300 shares ERX @ $33.75. Stop loss put in place at $37.00.
GTC limit order - short 120 shares DUST @ $45.50. Stop loss put in place at $54.00.
Not really able to do trading over the next 10 days since I will be on vacation, but here are two trades that my systems signaled. I am using the Van Tharp positioning filter to adjust the trade size and entries, and will set these up as GTC limit trades.
These will sit until triggered, but based on trade sizes and the position of the stops the maximum loss would be only about $1000 on each trade. If I don't get in on them, no big deal.
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #132494
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
11/13/2016 9:32:10 PM
In both trades this week, with the DUST trade busted for a loss of $1020. It is so overbought right now that I may re-enter tomorrow to see if I can make up the loss. The ERX trade is profitable but no exit signal just yet.
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #132522
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
11/15/2016 8:53:43 AM
Was able to re-enter the DUST trade - shorted 100 shares at $61.00 around 10 AM yesterday. Based on the futures I'll exit the ERX short at the open today for what I hope will be a small profit.
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #132561
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
11/15/2016 4:13:27 PM
Out of ERX at $32.74 at the open for a gain of $100.
Out of DUST at $47.24 at the close today for a gain of $1375. I was able to make up for the earlier loss. The Van Tharp position sizing approach helped to turn what would have likely been a larger loss into a small profit.
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #132694
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
11/22/2016 9:33:10 AM
Short 300 shares of ERX at $36.03. I may take a second position at $39.35 if it goes that high.
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