StockFetcher Forums · View by Author: Kevin_in_GA (3,394 messages) ·  [ Display By: Date / Subject ]<< 1 ... 2 3 4 5 6 ... 340 >> 
General Discussion · Is there a way to use options pricing to forecast/crowdsource likely future pricing of stock?
Kevin_in_GA
msg #121469
9/8/2014 2:52:01 PM

Google "option pain" - lots of folks believe that the market makers will drive the price to the point where options are worth the least. That is one prediction that, if true, you can use to your advantage.

Stock Picks and Trading · Intraday Alerts
Kevin_in_GA
msg #121453
9/5/2014 9:18:07 PM

JP:

Sorry to see that you are leaving SF, but I understand. Most of the more senior members have left, and while I will keep on here my posting frequency has dropped to a trickle since I started trading my systems on Collective2.

Best of luck going forward (not that you need it, but it never hurts to have it on your side). You have my contact info - please stay in touch.

Kevin

Filter Exchange · Help w/ Candlesticks
Kevin_in_GA
msg #121437
9/4/2014 8:26:10 AM

http://www.stockfetcher.com/forums/Indicators/Candlestick-Patterns/108408

Please use the search function before posting questions like this - the short answer is that you simply replace "Bullish" with Bearish" but this link will give you all of the pre-built candlestick patterns.

General Discussion · Leading stocks on the S&P for the month
Kevin_in_GA
msg #121323
8/12/2014 8:26:30 PM

Fetcher[
S&P 500
add column relative strength(SPY,21)
sort on column 5 descending
]



Filter Exchange · PORTFOLIO SELECTION AND MANAGEMENT USING RISK/REWARD RATIOS
Kevin_in_GA
msg #121269
8/5/2014 5:27:28 PM

Yes - SPY has performed the best.

Fetcher[
symlist(SPY,IWM,EFA,AGG)
offset 4/30/2014
sort on column 5 descending
]



Stock Picks and Trading · TRADING IRON CONDORS - FUN WITH OPTIONS
Kevin_in_GA
msg #121004
7/10/2014 11:35:56 PM

Only one update needed ...

BTO 20 IWM1411S114 IWM Jul11'14 114 put Filled: 0.06 at 7/3/14 10:54 ET
STO 20 IWM1411S116 IWM Jul11'14 116 put Filled: 0.14 at 7/3/14 10:56 ET

Current put spread delta = -0.74 (EXRTREME RISK)

There is still a 49% chance this will close at breakeven or above. Fingers are crossed.

Stock Picks and Trading · TRADING IRON CONDORS - FUN WITH OPTIONS
Kevin_in_GA
msg #120991
7/10/2014 10:01:12 AM

Ouch - so far today the big drop in the markets has totally blown the IWM put spread - now likely to take a big loss (remember, the max loss is $4000 on this one). This is of course the problem with statistics - they are always right. The chance of a max loss when the trade was put on was about 3-4%, not zero. Let's see how this plays out.

Stock Picks and Trading · TRADING IRON CONDORS - FUN WITH OPTIONS
Kevin_in_GA
msg #120986
7/9/2014 10:45:40 PM

7/9: Update on Pangolin IC trades for options expiring on 11 July:


BTO 20 GLD1411S122 GLD Jul11'14 122 put Filled: 0.05 at 7/3/14 10:44 ET
STO 20 GLD1411S124 GLD Jul11'14 124 put Filled: 0.12 at 7/3/14 10:45 ET

Current put spread delta = -0.03 (EXCELLENT)

The probability of max profit is now 99.80%.

STO 20 GLD1411G131 GLD Jul11'14 131 call Filled: 0.13 at 7/3/14 10:49 ET
BTO 20 GLD1411G133 GLD Jul11'14 133 call Filled: 0.07 at 7/3/14 10:48 ET

Current call spread delta = 0.05 (VERY GOOD)

The probability of max profit for this wing is 98.78%.

BTO 20 SPY1411S191 SPY Jul11'14 191 put Filled: 0.10 at 7/2/14 15:46 ET
STO 20 SPY1411S193 SPY Jul11'14 193 put Filled: 0.16 at 7/2/14 15:47 ET

Current put spread delta = -0.04 (EXCELLENT)

The probability of max profit is currently 99.58%.

BTO 20 IWM1411S114 IWM Jul11'14 114 put Filled: 0.06 at 7/3/14 10:54 ET
STO 20 IWM1411S116 IWM Jul11'14 116 put Filled: 0.14 at 7/3/14 10:56 ET

Current put spread delta = -0.35 (HIGH RISK)

The probability of max profit is still only 61.86%, and the probability of max loss is at 7.15%.


Stock Picks and Trading · TRADING IRON CONDORS - FUN WITH OPTIONS
Kevin_in_GA
msg #120980
7/8/2014 9:07:56 PM

7/8: Update on Pangolin IC trades for options expiring on 11 July:


BTO 20 GLD1411S122 GLD Jul11'14 122 put Filled: 0.05 at 7/3/14 10:44 ET
STO 20 GLD1411S124 GLD Jul11'14 124 put Filled: 0.12 at 7/3/14 10:45 ET

Current put spread delta = -0.05 (VERY GOOD)

The probability of max profit is now 97.76%.

STO 20 GLD1411G131 GLD Jul11'14 131 call Filled: 0.13 at 7/3/14 10:49 ET
BTO 20 GLD1411G133 GLD Jul11'14 133 call Filled: 0.07 at 7/3/14 10:48 ET

Current call spread delta = 0.05 (VERY GOOD)

The probability of max profit for this wing is 99.21%%.

BTO 20 SPY1411S191 SPY Jul11'14 191 put Filled: 0.10 at 7/2/14 15:46 ET
STO 20 SPY1411S193 SPY Jul11'14 193 put Filled: 0.16 at 7/2/14 15:47 ET

Current put spread delta = -0.08 (GOOD)

The probability of max profit is currently 95.27%.

BTO 20 IWM1411S114 IWM Jul11'14 114 put Filled: 0.06 at 7/3/14 10:54 ET
STO 20 IWM1411S116 IWM Jul11'14 116 put Filled: 0.14 at 7/3/14 10:56 ET

Current put spread delta = -0.38 (HIGH RISK)

The probability of max profit is currently only 57.39%, and the probability of max loss has gone from 3.98% to 12.24%.

Stock Picks and Trading · TRADING IRON CONDORS - FUN WITH OPTIONS
Kevin_in_GA
msg #120977
7/8/2014 9:34:19 AM

How do you balance the premium against the probability that the options will move against you?


Well, the probability is always 90+% for either leg when the trade is put on (if am doing it right) so that really doesn't change. The premium I look for needs to be at least 0.05 per contract or it simply isn't worth it to take on the added risk. I WANT to do iron condors but not if the commissions eat up all the profit on one of the wings. Better to just do the spread.

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