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Stock Picks and Trading · TRADING IRON CONDORS - FUN WITH OPTIONS
Kevin_in_GA
msg #120877
6/25/2014 10:32:25 PM

6/25: Update on deltas and probabilities (2 days until expiration):


BTO 20 IWM1427R110 IWM Jun27'14 110 put Filled: 0.12 at 6/18/14 12:06 ET

STO 20 IWM1427R112 IWM Jun27'14 112 put Filled: 0.23 at 6/18/14 12:06 ET

Current put delta = -0.01 (excellent)

The probability of max profit is now 99.99%.


STO 20 IWM1427F121 IWM Jun27'14 121 call Filled: 0.08 at 6/18/14 11:25 ET

BTO 20 IWM1427F123 IWM Jun27'14 123 call Filled: 0.03 at 6/18/14 11:23 ET

Current call delta = 0.01 (excellent)

The probability of max profit is now 97.30%. Still only a 0.01% chance of taking a max loss.


BTO 20 SPY1427R186 SPY Jun27'14 186 put Filled: 0.17 at 6/18/14 11:11 ET

STO 20 SPY1427R188 SPY Jun27'14 188 put Filled: 0.25 at 6/18/14 11:11 ET

Current put delta = -0.00 (excellent)

The probability of max profit is now 99.99%.


STO 20 SPY1427F197 SPY Jun27'14 197 call Filled: 0.15 at 6/18/14 11:12 ET

BTO 20 SPY1427F199 SPY Jun27'14 199 call Filled: 0.04 at 6/18/14 11:12 ET

Current call delta = 0.11 (good)

The probability of max profit moved down to 79.78% today. The probability of taking any loss on this right now is at 19.53%, and the chance of taking the max loss is now 1.96%.


Stock Picks and Trading · TRADING IRON CONDORS - FUN WITH OPTIONS
Kevin_in_GA
msg #120874
6/25/2014 1:41:02 PM

New Pangolin IC trades for options expiring on 3 July:

BTO 20 GLD1403S122 GLD Jul3'14 122 put Filled: 0.04 at 6/25/14 12:36 ET
STO 20 GLD1403S124 GLD Jul3'14 124 put Filled: 0.11 at 6/25/14 12:36 ET

This put spread will generate $140 before commissions ($102 after commissions) as long as the GLD price remains above 124 at the close of trading on 3 July. I was unable to get enough premium selling the call spread, so this will be a simple vertical put spread - no reason to add downside risk if the premium isn't enough.

BTO 20 IWM1403S111 IWM Jul3'14 111 put Filled: 0.15 at 6/25/14 12:28 ET
STO 20 IWM1403S113 IWM Jul3'14 113 put Filled: 0.30 at 6/25/14 12:28 ET
STO 20 IWM1403G120 IWM Jul3'14 120 call Filled: 0.08 at 6/25/14 12:30 ET
BTO 20 IWM1403G122 IWM Jul3'14 122 call Filled: 0.02 at 6/25/14 12:29 ET

Here I was able to get decent pricing for both wings of the Iron Condor - the put spread will generate $300 before commissions ($262 after) and the call spread will generate $120 ($82 after). IWM price needs to stay between 113 and 120 for this to expire profitably.

BTO 20 SPY1403S189 SPY Jul3'14 189 put Filled: 0.17 at 6/25/14 12:39 ET
STO 20 SPY1403S191 SPY Jul3'14 191 put Filled: 0.26 at 6/25/14 12:39 ET

This put spread will generate $180 before commissions ($142 after commissions) as long as the SPY price remains above 191 at the close of trading on 3 July. Just like in the case of GLD I was unable to get enough premium selling the call spread, so this will also be a single vertical put spread.

Assuming all trades go as planned this will net $588 after commissions.

So far we have had the first week's trades closed profitably for $730 after commissions, took a week out because of work conflicts (note - the planned ICs all expired profitably so I'm kicking myself), and this week is looking like it will go as planned and generate another $508 after commissions in profit. Even with the week off, in the last three weeks this strategy has returned $1238 in profit on an initial equity of $25,000 (with only about half of that equity ever at risk).

Stock Picks and Trading · TRADING IRON CONDORS - FUN WITH OPTIONS
Kevin_in_GA
msg #120864
6/24/2014 7:23:21 PM

6/24: Update on deltas and probabilities (3 days until expiration):

BTO 20 IWM1427R110 IWM Jun27'14 110 put Filled: 0.12 at 6/18/14 12:06 ET

STO 20 IWM1427R112 IWM Jun27'14 112 put Filled: 0.23 at 6/18/14 12:06 ET

Current put delta = -0.04 (excellent)

The probability of max profit is now 99.58%.

STO 20 IWM1427F121 IWM Jun27'14 121 call Filled: 0.08 at 6/18/14 11:25 ET

BTO 20 IWM1427F123 IWM Jun27'14 123 call Filled: 0.03 at 6/18/14 11:23 ET

Current call delta = 0.01 (excellent)

The probability of max profit is now up to 98.65%. Only a 1.33% chance of taking any loss, and a 0.01% chance of taking a max loss.

BTO 20 SPY1427R186 SPY Jun27'14 186 put Filled: 0.17 at 6/18/14 11:11 ET

STO 20 SPY1427R188 SPY Jun27'14 188 put Filled: 0.25 at 6/18/14 11:11 ET

Current put delta = -0.03 (excellent)

The probability of max profit is now 99.98%.

STO 20 SPY1427F197 SPY Jun27'14 197 call Filled: 0.15 at 6/18/14 11:12 ET

BTO 20 SPY1427F199 SPY Jun27'14 199 call Filled: 0.04 at 6/18/14 11:12 ET

Current call delta = 0.10 (good)

The probability of max profit moved from 68.55% yesterday to 87.06% today. The probability of taking any loss on this right now down to 12.41%, and the chance of taking the max loss is down to only 1.60% today.


Stock Picks and Trading · TRADING IRON CONDORS - FUN WITH OPTIONS
Kevin_in_GA
msg #120863
6/24/2014 7:10:22 PM

Another typo - you are correct. Now corrected in the most recent post.

Stock Picks and Trading · TRADING IRON CONDORS - FUN WITH OPTIONS
Kevin_in_GA
msg #120860
6/24/2014 1:36:53 PM

Good catch. That's what I get for being lazy and copying/pasting. Now corrected.

Stock Picks and Trading · TRADING IRON CONDORS - FUN WITH OPTIONS
Kevin_in_GA
msg #120854
modified
6/24/2014 12:33:23 AM

6/23: Update on deltas and probabilities:

BTO 20 IWM1427R110 IWM Jun27'14 110 put Filled: 0.12 at 6/18/14 12:06 ET
STO 20 IWM1427R112 IWM Jun27'14 112 put Filled: 0.23 at 6/18/14 12:06 ET

Current put delta = -0.03 (excellent)
The probability of max profit is now 99.69%.

STO 20 IWM1427F121 IWM Jun27'14 121 call Filled: 0.08 at 6/18/14 11:25 ET
BTO 20 IWM1427F123 IWM Jun27'14 123 call Filled: 0.03 at 6/18/14 11:23 ET

Current call delta = 0.04 (excellent)
The probability of max profit is now up to 88.69%. Only a 10.23% chance of taking any loss, and a 0.57% chance of taking a max loss.

BTO 20 SPY1427R186 SPY Jun27'14 186 put Filled: 0.17 at 6/18/14 11:11 ET
STO 20 SPY1427R188 SPY Jun27'14 188 put Filled: 0.25 at 6/18/14 11:11 ET

Current put delta = -0.03 (excellent)
The probability of max profit is now 100.00%.

STO 20 SPY1427F197 SPY Jun27'14 197 call Filled: 0.15 at 6/18/14 11:12 ET
BTO 20 SPY1427F199 SPY Jun27'14 199 call Filled: 0.04 at 6/18/14 11:12 ET

Current call delta = 0.22 (lower but still elevated risk)
Even though the stock price did not move today, time decay helped improve the probability of max profit from 63.53% yesterday to 68.55% today. The probability of taking any loss on this right now down to 28.92%, and the chance of taking the max loss is down to only 7.42% today.


Stock Picks and Trading · TRADING IRON CONDORS - FUN WITH OPTIONS
Kevin_in_GA
msg #120849
6/23/2014 1:45:27 PM

Well, I did add that part in specifically for you.

Stock Picks and Trading · TRADING IRON CONDORS - FUN WITH OPTIONS
Kevin_in_GA
msg #120836
6/20/2014 9:53:13 PM

6/20: Update on deltas and probabilities:

BTO 20 IWM1427R110 IWM Jun27'14 110 put Filled: 0.12 at 6/18/14 12:06 ET
STO 20 IWM1427R112 IWM Jun27'14 112 put Filled: 0.23 at 6/18/14 12:06 ET

Current put delta = -0.03 (excellent)
The probability of max profit is now 99.36%.


STO 20 IWM1427F121 IWM Jun27'14 121 call Filled: 0.08 at 6/18/14 11:25 ET
BTO 20 IWM1427F123 IWM Jun27'14 123 call Filled: 0.03 at 6/18/14 11:23 ET

Current call delta = 0.08 (good)
The probability of max profit is now down slightly to 84.09%. Only an 15% chance of taking any loss, and a 1.4% chance of taking a max loss.


BTO 20 SPY1427R186 SPY Jun27'14 186 put Filled: 0.17 at 6/18/14 11:11 ET
STO 20 SPY1427R188 SPY Jun27'14 188 put Filled: 0.25 at 6/18/14 11:11 ET

Current put delta = -0.04 (excellent)
The probability of max profit is now 99.96%.


BTO 20 SPY1427F197 SPY Jun27'14 197 call Filled: 0.15 at 6/18/14 11:12 ET
BTO 20 SPY1427F199 SPY Jun27'14 199 call Filled: 0.04 at 6/18/14 11:12 ET

Current call delta = 0.26 (high risk)
Even though the stock price moved closer to the edge of the call spread, the probability of max profit is up from 54.49% yesterday to 63.53% today. The probability of taking any loss on this right now down to 36%, and the chance of taking the max loss is down from 18.49% yesterday to 12.64% today.




Stock Picks and Trading · TRADING IRON CONDORS - FUN WITH OPTIONS
Kevin_in_GA
msg #120805
6/19/2014 10:19:32 PM

6/19: Update on deltas and probabilities:

BTO 20 IWM1427R110 IWM Jun27'14 110 put Filled: 0.12 at 6/18/14 12:06 ET
STO 20 IWM1427R112 IWM Jun27'14 112 put Filled: 0.23 at 6/18/14 12:06 ET

Current put delta = -0.05 (excellent)
The probability of max profit is now 99.41%.

STO 20 IWM1427F121 IWM Jun27'14 121 call Filled: 0.08 at 6/18/14 11:25 ET
BTO 20 IWM1427F123 IWM Jun27'14 123 call Filled: 0.03 at 6/18/14 11:23 ET

Current call delta = 0.09 (good)
The probability of max profit is now up slightly to 88.95%. Only an 10% chance of taking any loss, and a 0.8% chance of taking a max loss.

BTO 20 SPY1427R186 SPY Jun27'14 186 put Filled: 0.17 at 6/18/14 11:11 ET
STO 20 SPY1427R188 SPY Jun27'14 188 put Filled: 0.25 at 6/18/14 11:11 ET

Current put delta = -0.04 (excellent)
The probability of max profit is now 99.98%.

BTO 20 SPY1427F197 SPY Jun27'14 197 call Filled: 0.15 at 6/18/14 11:12 ET
BTO 20 SPY1427F199 SPY Jun27'14 199 call Filled: 0.04 at 6/18/14 11:12 ET

Current call delta = 0.23 (high risk)
The probability of max profit is now down slightly to 54.49%. The probability of taking any loss on this right now is 42%, but the chance of taking the max loss is down from 20.54% yesterday to 18.49% today.

NOTE: Deltas are for the sold option in each spread. Probabilities are calculated using TradeMonster.

Stock Picks and Trading · TRADING IRON CONDORS - FUN WITH OPTIONS
Kevin_in_GA
msg #120789
6/18/2014 9:34:27 PM

Update on deltas and probabilities:

BTO 20 IWM1427R110 IWM Jun27'14 110 put Filled: 0.12 at 6/18/14 12:06 ET
STO 20 IWM1427R112 IWM Jun27'14 112 put Filled: 0.23 at 6/18/14 12:06 ET

Current put delta = -0.06 (excellent)
The probability of max profit is now 98.57%.

STO 20 IWM1427F121 IWM Jun27'14 121 call Filled: 0.08 at 6/18/14 11:25 ET
BTO 20 IWM1427F123 IWM Jun27'14 123 call Filled: 0.03 at 6/18/14 11:23 ET

Current call delta = 0.12 (good)
The probability of max profit is 86.76%. Only an 11% chance of taking any loss, and a 3.46% chance of taking a max loss.

BTO 20 SPY1427R186 SPY Jun27'14 186 put Filled: 0.17 at 6/18/14 11:11 ET
STO 20 SPY1427R188 SPY Jun27'14 188 put Filled: 0.25 at 6/18/14 11:11 ET

Current put delta = -0.05 (excellent)
The probability of max profit is now 99.80%.

BTO 20 SPY1427F197 SPY Jun27'14 197 call Filled: 0.15 at 6/18/14 11:12 ET
BTO 20 SPY1427F199 SPY Jun27'14 199 call Filled: 0.04 at 6/18/14 11:12 ET

Current call delta = 0.25 (high risk)
The probability of max profit is now 56.55%. The probability of taking any loss on this right now is 40%, and a 20.54% chance of a max loss.


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