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General Discussion · The Fed
curmudgeon
msg #59041
1/16/2008 2:43:31 PM

It's hard to imagine anyone lending credibility to the fed as anything except another monopoly looking out for its own interest. Of all the monopolies you can be in can you think of a better one to be than banking? You ARE the framework that all others must rely on.

You can be certain somewhere in all this mess, that the actions taken along the way will produce the desired effect down the line.

Whether it be selling gold to the East at the top of the market or some Malthusian outcome from crop mismanagement...the boys will bring the bacon home. However, you also have to keep in mind that they will toss the US down like a rag doll when we cease to be a useful vessel for world domination.

General Discussion · Bear market ???
curmudgeon
msg #58815
1/7/2008 9:28:38 PM

Pretty much all the economists blogs I read are now talking how bad...not if we are in a recession. Commercial real estate, consumer/credit cards and auto loans delinquencies are rising. I guess Doug Kass gets it right at least once a decade.

What is different this time is the solvency of the banking system is in doubt. The derivative WMD's may be about to drop a black swan on us.

Privatize the profits, socialize the risk. MF's need to be executed.

General Discussion · STOCK SELECTION ( FILTERING ) VS. STOCK TRADING.
curmudgeon
msg #57852
12/9/2007 4:52:38 PM

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Messianic_complex

General Discussion · STOCK SELECTION ( FILTERING ) VS. STOCK TRADING.
curmudgeon
msg #57838
12/9/2007 2:30:16 PM

This is almost comical.

TRO's strict adherence to the classical pattern of deflection and avoidance when confronted wreaks of deception.

Listening to the interview with TRO, all kinds of little red flags popped up in my head. I got a "Catch Me If You Can" vibe from it.

Now, after the last few days, I KNOW I smell BS.

General Discussion · SWING TRADING
curmudgeon
msg #57700
12/6/2007 12:45:12 PM

Alf why does my gut say there's something fishy about you?

Anyway the answer is:

"Some of the things you say sometimes though, an experienced person will recognize as risky , whereas, an inexperienced person will not know the difference."

A better choice of words was in order such as "the problem isn't the method per se" but I must confess I'm tired.

I saw a problem, I did what I knew to be right and now I can wash my hands of being party to it by not saying anything.

General Discussion · SWING TRADING
curmudgeon
msg #57696
12/6/2007 11:19:48 AM

The problem isn't the method. It's inexperienced people who inevitably will try to emulate you. They don't understand risk/reward well and learning the hard way on RIMM or AAPL isn't good advice.

SFMc01 comes to mind. Here's the poor guy trying to do what he thinks you said to do and he's immediately in the red on a very high ATR stock.

You're the most prolific script writer known to mankind. You take all these ideas from various authors and make them happen. I truly appreciate your help as I know we all do. You're dogmatic and I have no doubt you truly believe what you're saying. Some of the things you say sometimes though, an experienced person will recognize as risky , whereas, an inexperienced person will not know the difference.

General Discussion · SWING TRADING
curmudgeon
msg #57650
12/5/2007 8:11:41 PM

TRO I don't doubt for a minute the method you describe works for you. However to dogmatically evangelize the death of "squiggly lines" in favor of this method is reckless and disrespectful to the financial welfare of others.

The method dbyrt described is a useful way of using your statistic. But the implication that because a certain amount of times in the past a stock went up this much ABOVE the open (not necessarily FROM the open) means that if it passes above .10 or .20 cents in one direction at the open that it will continue on to the high or the low is a stretch. There is no possible way to come to that conclusion using the data as it is and to recommend inexperienced people to scalp like this is recklessness.

It is a disservice to the standing you hold on this forum.

General Discussion · SWING TRADING
curmudgeon
msg #57629
12/5/2007 4:13:24 PM

After reading : http://forums.stockfetcher.com/sfforums/?q=view&tid=55433&start=10

I have a few questions.

High - Open and Open - Low are certainly a way to dissect the day range and figure a bias of a stock to range a certain amount in one direction or another. I don't understand however how this is a "statistic" indicating anything useful except a stock has a certain amount of volatility. If you want to "MTC" isn't high ATR pretty much the same thing?

The reality is your method may be more precise but the outcome is exactly the same....these stocks have "X" amount of volatility. I don't see how this is a "statistic" in regards to an edge trading across a fixed line from the open and in particular to trading at the open.

I know that TS has a count function as well. On intraday bars you might be able to come up with a way to see an edge but I don't see it using High - Open.

General Discussion · SWING TRADING
curmudgeon
msg #57597
12/5/2007 10:08:43 AM

"Get a clue...you're making an arse out of yourself !!! "

Like I said before, I'm an assho asking questions. I have no image that I'm concerned about and nothing to lose by asking questions. Something smells funny here though.



General Discussion · SWING TRADING
curmudgeon
msg #57586
12/5/2007 1:48:49 AM

"years of statistics tell me"

(High - Open) is a "statistic" related to trading the open in exactly what way?

I'm not blocking anyones path to "light". I'm just an assho asking questions.

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