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General Discussion · SWING TRADING
curmudgeon
msg #57569
12/4/2007 8:47:58 PM

"Crabel obviously doesn't view the "OPEN" as "random points in space" ! LOL "

It is a random point in space when you draw a line out from the open in isolation of the data before it. But random in the sense that it is only one point of many before and after it. It really has no magical quality other than it won the lottery to be first that day.

I get the whole "floor trader" bit. It's a romantic way of looking at things in a scrappy, streetwise kind of way. But I have more computing and charting capability on my desk than the NSA had when Toby was a floor trader. Why would'nt I use it?

A few observations: If I did this kind of trading I would use something like 100 or 200 tick bars on a stock like RIMM or AAPL. And I would have buttons that say "buy" and "sell" and they work instantaneously. If you have neither capability I would suggest another method that's less costly to learn about volatility with. It's not "SIMPLE" or "EASY". Nothing in this business is easy except losing money.

I am intrigued by the "random" point in space thing though. By removing yourself from the bias of previous data you could react to what is happening in front of you. Is it wise to disregard the past though? How much "weight" does a trend actually carry?

General Discussion · SWING TRADING
curmudgeon
msg #57506
12/4/2007 9:18:05 AM

"People trying to validate the time they've spent"

I'm not sure that's what it is. I'm thinking it's my Napoleonic complex because I'm 5'2" and have a child's weenie. It might be a touch of my megalomania as I can't stand when people don't do things the way I think they should be done and everyone knows I'm ALWAYS right. Probably some of the old fear of rejection popping up because I'm as big around as I am tall.

Or. Howzabout - a thorough examination of this method is in order before some of the NEWBIES lose all their money. Nothing personal and neither I, TRO or anyone else seems to be concerned about anything except the issue at hand.

General Discussion · Everyone Short B4 Bernanke's speech tonite?
curmudgeon
msg #57500
12/4/2007 1:26:17 AM

Looks pretty inevitable to me.
http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc071126.htm

General Discussion · SWING TRADING
curmudgeon
msg #57443
12/3/2007 11:36:17 AM

"STATISTICALLY SIGNIGFICANT"

Death by a thousand cuts is also statistically significant ;)

Seriously. I'm sitting here looking at charts and I completely understand what you're saying but I can't see anything but being completely confused all the time. Up, down, up, down. It would take a special kind of personality to trade this way. Not me.

Swing trading is more my thang. Squeezing as much out of a rally as possible; staying on trend but ready to bail; buy low sell high.

General Discussion · SWING TRADING
curmudgeon
msg #57438
12/3/2007 11:12:24 AM

Hehe. I got the moving average idea from you man. Remember back in the TS forum with the 3 line crossovers?

That was a pivotal time for me. Between you and Rev Shark I finally got the idea pounded into my head "TRADE WHATS IN FRONT OF YOU".

You may very well be on to something here, and I must admit it is alluring to scalp your way to riches but I just can't wrap my head around risking large amounts of money in random points in space to make a hundred bucks.

General Discussion · SWING TRADING
curmudgeon
msg #57424
modified
12/2/2007 10:00:14 PM

"can you lower risk any more than that?"

You can lower risk on your entry point.

Dunno about you but if I'm dropping $187,000 on 1000 shares of AAPL I don't want to see an immediate drawdown if I can avoid it in a scalp.

To me there is a huge difference in risk management between buying at an arbitrary point in space like the open and buying at a point that has predetermined managed risk.

General Discussion · SWING TRADING
curmudgeon
msg #57415
12/2/2007 9:07:26 PM

"29 stocks that have gone long AT LEAST .50 or more 80 times in last 100 days "

The point is, as it has already been pointed out, that buying the open when price crosses a line isn't a guarantee that the price will hit the high on that particular excursion above the line. Yes, TRO says dont be greedy and just take .10 cent trades. Nothing wrong with that.

What I'm saying, all I'm saying really, is that if you have the means it makes more sense to wait for the entry at some sort of reversal and ride the tide from there. To float with the price (moving averages are the PRICE SMOOTHED).

If I can take the Weekly, Daily, 78, 13, 3 and even Tick based charts and trade when they all line up in a predetermined way then I'd say I did everything humanly possible to stack the odds in my favor.

General Discussion · SWING TRADING
curmudgeon
msg #57403
12/2/2007 7:34:35 PM

To be clear though I couldn't do things the way I do without TS and Global Variable. That's my only advantage. Otherwise I would have to use a much simpler system such as TRO's.

General Discussion · SWING TRADING
curmudgeon
msg #57401
12/2/2007 7:22:17 PM

There is no guarantee but if I'm trend following in multiple time frames I've stacked the odds in my favor as much as can be done.

My approach is simple as well. I don't know jackshit. I let all the Wharton grads doing the fundies and when the tell tale VOLATILITY shows up I look for trend in 4 time frames pin pointing areas of hi probability weakness. FLUID means finding exhaustion or maximum excursion points within trends on ever higher time frames.

To me, scalping with the current trend makes a hell of a lot more sense than a rigid approach at the open.

General Discussion · SWING TRADING
curmudgeon
msg #57396
12/2/2007 6:36:42 PM

I'm with Niko on this. Stats are stats. Whether something actually moves one way or the other because I drew a line and the price crossed is no guarantee that it keeps moving in that direction even .01.

I'm sitting here looking at stock after stock where it gaps up and keeps going one day and then gap up and shoots straight down then bottoms and moves higher.

I still say fluid, moving averages are better.

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