StockFetcher Forums · Filter Exchange · Bullish stocks ready to move higher<< 1 2 3 >>Post Follow-up
JoeGrossinger
165 posts
msg #28359
Ignore JoeGrossinger
9/5/2003 9:05:38 PM

Ok Jim, thanks for the constructive criticism. I really appreciate it.
I went back 154 days (27 January 2003) which starts a really dark period.
Your filter measured up the best by far.
I will use your filter instead.
I'm going to stay with the 10% stop loss for a while because so many people really object to anything less.
3% eh? I will give that mention and will track that separately for myself for a while and then post my results.

I really appreciate your input. My intent is to produce a system that is fairly safe and also very easy for anyone to use. I want to use systems that allow folks with real day jobs to make good money in the market all the while they are slaving for "the man".
I am going to limit the close between 1.00 and 9.00 because I want folks to actually buy 5 stocks so as to spread and limit their risk. Most folks can scrape up $5,000 or something close to it.



jim_c_hill
61 posts
msg #28361
Ignore jim_c_hill
9/5/2003 11:11:36 PM

Joe
One has to be careful with the filter, and others of this type, because one or two issues sometimes take a big hit on the first day. For example, on May 30, 2003, the filter came up with 7 stocks. On the first day according to the performance measurement on stockfetcher, 3 of the stocks rose for an average of +1.39%, two stocks collapsed for -13.94% and two were unchanged. Overall the first day had a net down of -3.39%. I worry about choosing just 5 of the seven because the two bad ones could be in the five and have a more negative impact on the total. I admit the stocks that collapsed were below $1 and I would not have invested in them, but it is always an issue. I note that on that date if the price is limited to between $1 and $5 only one stock comes up. Again one can make big money or lose it big with one stock. In this case when I looked at the chart I am not sure I would have bought it as the daily volatility for a stock in this range was very high. Even a stop active during the day may not catch a falling rock. This is why I tend to trade higher dollar stocks with larger volumes.

Is a 10% stop too large for these types of filters?

Jim



EWZuber
1,373 posts
msg #28365
Ignore EWZuber
9/6/2003 5:28:16 AM

I just use these filters as a starting point and carefully chart the returns to find the best set ups.


JoeGrossinger
165 posts
msg #28367
Ignore JoeGrossinger
9/6/2003 10:57:43 AM

I start my trading day around noon market time. By that time I have a fair idea of which way the wind is blowing and that is also a quiet period in the market.

Since the stocks in these filters are bullish stocks that are supposed to go up, trading them should slow down after the first few days because the poor stocks will be weeded out with performers. The filters are supposed to provide more winners than losers, so as the losers are cut, winners remain.

Most traders end up with the opposite. Being reluctant to cut their loses they hang on to the dogs and being afraid of winners becoming losers they will sell their winners, leaving their portfolio full of dogs.

Joe's Simple System and the new Killer system are designed to combat that.
Even though I am running a 10% stop loss initially on Killer, I will no doubt end up going much lower at a later time, after I have shown the folly of the 10% stop.

http://www.koliga.com/forum/index.php?c=5

Joe's Simple System forces very few trades after the first week. This should tell folks that the picks are good, the system is running and making money. If you are constantly trading stocks its not because you are running winners.

Buying a basket eliminates the question every one has and no one answers.
Which stock do I buy?

Five stocks is a nice, easy to handle number that neatly manages your risk to where you only take a 20% hit if a stock where to go to zero, something I have never seen happen without plenty of notice. However, it is not rare for a $5.00 stock to go to 50 cents, so this kind of protection makes sense.
If you have a good weeding system (low stop loss makes that easier and simpler) then you end up with 3 to 5 stocks going up and one or two taking a break.
You end up with your basket of winners constantly going up, with you having to make very few trades.

I am running a 10% stop-loss on Killer to show that, because I don't believe gardening will be anywhere near as effective as using a 5% or less stop loss.
Since both systems are run on a real life basis, I think it educational to have one running 4% stop loss and the other 10%, just to show the difference.

The argument of "well most stocks come back" is meaningless to me since I am replacing one that went down with one that is going up. I don't have to wait for the stock to bottom out and then maybe come back. I have a new stock that is going up. Time equals money in the market. The cheap broker fees really defeat the 10% or greater stop loss system because it's rather foolish to risk hundreds of dollars just to save $14.00 on brokerage fees.

If you have a good filter that provides 80% or more winners then you have to end up with an oustanding portfolio of 5 or more stocks and no dogs.

There is nothing that is written in stone in any of these systems as long as you remain true to the one you select.
If you chose to use 3% stop loss then abide by it. Everytime.
Otherwise you end up starting to make excuses and your system will go to hell quick. If you chose 10% then live by it. Don't be anticipating as the stock goes up and you look at it having to come back down 10% before you stop out.
Honor your own system and stick by it.
You can run 5 or 10 stocks. I use five because it's realistic and less work.
Some filters will not work with this system.

Holy Grail and Muddy won't work because those are filters that pick out dogs.
Muddy's system works if you follow his rules, which can get to be work.
Holy Grail type filters can be used following the Muddy system. Both are best left to folks that can watch their monitors during market hours.

One alternative to the Muddy system that I prefer and have had much success with is to buy the first five stocks that pop out of the filters and hold them for a week. Buy them on Monday, forget about them until Friday and then sell the entire lot. You will end up with a nice return. No fuss, no muss and no watching the market all day long.
Folks with day jobs can do this with no sweat.
Avoid the temptation to trade.
Just buy the first five on Monday about an hour after the market opens and sell them on Friday. Run your filters over the weekend and repeat on Monday.
You won't find this kind of information on the Muddy group, but you will at:

http://www.koliga.com/forum/index.php?c=5

If the filters give less than 5 stocks you can do OK by going with 3 or more but not with fewer, because your risk growns as the number of stocks become fewer. You can adjust the filters by expanding the price range or dropping down a bit on the minimum volume. Try to use a combo that consistently provides 5 or more hits. If the filter won't do that, toss it. Toss it because there are plenty of others that will.

Good luck!


makeroftrades
29 posts
msg #28369
Ignore makeroftrades
9/6/2003 2:17:34 PM

grerat filters , on this thread , which one will find me , the best swing trades within 5 days to unload , once i go through after i see them and do my own quick dd, thanks ....there seems to be a few versions on this thread , any one recommmended , for 5 or less swing trades

thanks


rrochon
117 posts
msg #28375
Ignore rrochon
9/6/2003 8:07:23 PM

Joe and Jim,

I took the first 5 stocks on all 3 filters; Joe's Original Simple filter, Joe's Improved, and Jim's modification, and checked the RSI(2). Joe's Original filter had an average RSI(2) of 74.82, Joe's Improved averaged 89.31, and Jim's averaged 42.22.

Remember Rump keeps saying that buying Noah's Box stocks and Joe's Simple System stocks at the RSI(2) would have given much higher profits?

The problem with this idea is that when these stocks show up on a screen it is not possible to go back in time to buy them at the lowest RSI.

But, do stocks with lower RSI actually go up better than stocks with higher RSI? Doing 5 day back test comparisons it does seem that Jim's Modification, with lower RSI, would produce the higher returns.

I am starting a paper trade test of these three filters, buying Monday at noon and selling Friday before the close. I'll let you know the results.

Dick


JoeGrossinger
165 posts
msg #28376
Ignore JoeGrossinger
9/6/2003 8:08:06 PM

If you are going to do your own cherry picking then run all the filters and find the best stocks. No need to worry about which filter ran best this week.



TheRumpledOne
6,362 posts
msg #28386
Ignore TheRumpledOne
9/7/2003 5:15:31 AM

Joe G.

You didn't show up to the shoot out... so since it was put up or shut up... be a man.

And while you guys were backtesting filter after filter this past week, Muddy and I were just using the same old filters and making money.

If you were thirsty and there was a working well with cool, fresh, clean water, would you drink from it or go off and try to dig your own well? PONDER THAT.

RSI(2) RULES!!



TheRumpledOne
6,362 posts
msg #28387
Ignore TheRumpledOne
9/7/2003 5:25:19 AM

This is too funny:

<<< JoeGrossinger 9/6/2003 10:57:43 AM

I start my trading day around noon market time. By that time I have a fair idea of which way the wind is blowing and that is also a quiet period in the market. >>>

Buy the time the market opens, I have already made profitable trades. By noon, I have a nice pile. THE EARLY BIRD CATCHES THE WORM!!

831021349 Sell 2000 NXTL Limit at 19.65, GTC Partially Filled:Filled Auto Routing
831021349-P1 Sell 2000 NXTL Limit at 19.65, GTC Partially Filled 1000 at 19.65 Auto Routing 2003-09-02 09:50:07
831021349-P2 Sell 2000 NXTL Limit at 19.65, GTC Partially Filled 1000 at 19.65 Auto Routing 2003-09-02 09:50:02
830948203 Buy 2000 NXTL Limit at 19.61, GTC Filled 2000 at 19.61 Auto Routing 2003-09-02 09:34:43
830889243 Sell 5000 ASTM Limit at 1.47, Ext-AM Partially Filled:Filled Auto Routing
830889243-P1 Sell 5000 ASTM Limit at 1.47, Ext-AM Partially Filled 400 at 1.48 Auto Routing 2003-09-02 08:57:23
830889243-P2 Sell 5000 ASTM Limit at 1.47, Ext-AM Partially Filled 2500 at 1.48 Auto Routing 2003-09-02 08:57:23
830889243-P3 Sell 5000 ASTM Limit at 1.47, Ext-AM Partially Filled 2000 at 1.48 Auto Routing 2003-09-02 08:57:22
830889243-P4 Sell 5000 ASTM Limit at 1.47, Ext-AM Partially Filled 100 at 1.48 Auto Routing 2003-09-02 08:57:22
830838448 Sell 5000 ASTM Limit at 1.50, Ext-AM Canceled Auto Routing
830834196 Buy 5000 ASTM Limit at 1.45, Ext-AM Partially Filled:Filled Auto Routing
830834196-P1 Buy 5000 ASTM Limit at 1.45, Ext-AM Partially Filled 1145 at 1.45 Auto Routing 2003-09-02 08:06:34
830834196-P2 Buy 5000 ASTM Limit at 1.45, Ext-AM Partially Filled 1000 at 1.45 Auto Routing 2003-09-02 08:06:34
830834196-P3 Buy 5000 ASTM Limit at 1.45, Ext-AM Partially Filled 200 at 1.45 Auto Routing 2003-09-02 08:06:34
830834196-P4 Buy 5000 ASTM Limit at 1.45, Ext-AM Partially Filled 445 at 1.45 Auto Routing 2003-09-02 08:06:34
830834196-P5 Buy 5000 ASTM Limit at 1.45, Ext-AM Partially Filled 2210 at 1.438 Auto Routing 2003-09-02 08:06:34
829776202 Sell 5000 NXXI Limit at 1.45, Ext-AM Partially Filled:Filled Auto Routing
829776202-P1 Sell 5000 NXXI Limit at 1.45, Ext-AM Partially Filled 800 at 1.45 Auto Routing 2003-08-29 08:18:53
829776202-P2 Sell 5000 NXXI Limit at 1.45, Ext-AM Partially Filled 200 at 1.45 Auto Routing 2003-08-29 08:18:47
829776202-P3 Sell 5000 NXXI Limit at 1.45, Ext-AM Partially Filled 1000 at 1.45 Auto Routing 2003-08-29 08:18:37
829776202-P4 Sell 5000 NXXI Limit at 1.45, Ext-AM Partially Filled 2000 at 1.45 Auto Routing 2003-08-29 08:18:37
829776202-P5 Sell 5000 NXXI Limit at 1.45, Ext-AM Partially Filled 1000 at 1.46 Auto Routing 2003-08-29 08:18:37
829769686 Buy 5000 NXXI Limit at 1.35, Ext-AM Filled 5000 at 1.35 Auto Routing 2003-08-29 08:14:22
829766893 Sell 2000 NXTL Limit at 18.75, Ext-AM Partially Filled:Filled Auto Routing
829766893-P1 Sell 2000 NXTL Limit at 18.75, Ext-AM Partially Filled 400 at 18.75 Auto Routing 2003-08-29 08:08:10
829766893-P2 Sell 2000 NXTL Limit at 18.75, Ext-AM Partially Filled 500 at 18.75 Auto Routing 2003-08-29 08:08:10
829766893-P3 Sell 2000 NXTL Limit at 18.75, Ext-AM Partially Filled 100 at 18.75 Auto Routing 2003-08-29 08:08:10
829766893-P4 Sell 2000 NXTL Limit at 18.75, Ext-AM Partially Filled 1000 at 18.75 Auto Routing 2003-08-29 08:08:10
829764231 Buy 2000 NXTL Limit at 18.50, Ext-AM Partially Filled:Filled Auto Routing
829764231-P1 Buy 2000 NXTL Limit at 18.50, Ext-AM Partially Filled 100 at 18.48 Auto Routing 2003-08-29 08:01:41
829764231-P2 Buy 2000 NXTL Limit at 18.50, Ext-AM Partially Filled 1300 at 18.47 Auto Routing 2003-08-29 08:01:41
829764231-P3 Buy 2000 NXTL Limit at 18.50, Ext-AM Partially Filled 600 at 18.46 Auto Routing 2003-08-29 08:01:40
829764116 Buy 2000 NXTL Limit at 18.42, Ext-AM Canceled Auto Routing




txtrapper
548 posts
msg #28392
Ignore txtrapper
9/7/2003 11:13:06 AM

11AM ET is the magic hour to buy stocks, check a few of your stocks and compare the price at 11AM to the price at the close. It's called "The Magic Eleven", seems most stocks will be at the lowest point at llAM Eastern Time, I was taught that system at Stocks2Watch.com/. It works like Magic!


StockFetcher Forums · Filter Exchange · Bullish stocks ready to move higher<< 1 2 3 >>Post Follow-up

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