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Kevin_in_GA
4,538 posts
msg #99021
Ignore Kevin_in_GA
2/11/2011 3:21:13 AM

Kevin.....The outcome differs for the ROC(13) and the TSI(5,5,1) do you favor one over the other as a weekly trading indicator?

+++++++++

I ran backtests on all possible combinations of the weekly TSI(x,y,1), letting x and y range from 1 to 10. Due to the symmetric nature of this indicator, TSI(4,7,1) is the same as TSI(7,4,1) so the total number of combinations was only 50. Backtests ran on IWM, SPY, EEM, and AGG from 12/29/2006 until 12/31/2010.

Most profitable combo was weekly TSI(3,7,1), which returned 30.5% compared to the ^SPX which returned -11.4%. For comparison, the weekly TSI(5,5,1) returned 20.1% over the same period. These numbers differ from my earlier hand calculations, but for comparative purposes I am willing to use them.

I also ran all combos of the weekly ROC(x,1) with x ranging from 1 to 30. The weekly ROC(13,1) returned 72.8% over the same time frame. Pretty clear difference in performance.

For now I am using the ROC(13,1). Since 1/2/2000 the 14 and 16 week ROCs were consistently the winner, but most the the gains came in the last four years.

duke56468
683 posts
msg #99035
Ignore duke56468
2/11/2011 9:35:30 AM

Kevin.. thank you Sir, I really appreciate your contributions.

Kevin_in_GA
4,538 posts
msg #99041
Ignore Kevin_in_GA
2/11/2011 12:27:18 PM

No thanks needed. I am happy to share this type of information, and think that this particular approach makes investing (versus trading) a simple and profitable experience.

I also tested this on a series of Vanguard mutual funds for each asset class, just to be sure. These funds go back much longer than the ETFs, so it also allowed me to backtest from 1992 forward.

Since 1992, the data argues strongly for either a 14 week or 16 week ROC. Same for 2000 forward as well as 2005 forward. Once you look at 2007 forward, 13 weeks works about as well as any other, and the typical 3 month performance data for almost all ETFs and indices/mutual funds are readily available.

I am constantly impressed by both the simplicity and profitability of this approach. Trades happen about 3-4 times a year, which is awfully easy for most people to do, and fits nicely into most 401k portfolio strategies.

TraderMojo
16 posts
msg #99045
Ignore TraderMojo
modified
2/11/2011 5:07:33 PM

Kevin... Thanks for being so generous with your expertise on this methodology. You mentioned that in your 401K, trades happen about 3-4 times a year. Are you using the ROC(13,1) for this? And how often do you evaluate the need to re-balance (e.g. monthly? quarterly?).

Kevin_in_GA
4,538 posts
msg #99046
Ignore Kevin_in_GA
2/11/2011 6:50:22 PM

Rebalancing is not really the correct term, as it implies owning a series of different investments and varying the percentages. This approach is an "all-in" method where you fully invest in the top-ranked asset.

Re-allocation is a better descriptor. I reallocate only when a new asset class assumes the top spot. That happens when it happens, not on any schedule.

TraderMojo
16 posts
msg #99047
Ignore TraderMojo
2/11/2011 7:09:21 PM

Can you expand on "asset class" and how that relates to your 401K mutual funds? In other words, if there are 25 mutual funds to select from in your 401K, do you allocate to the one of 25 that gives the best performance, or do you create a subset of those (e.g. one from each asset class) and then rotate all-in among them?

Kevin_in_GA
4,538 posts
msg #99053
Ignore Kevin_in_GA
modified
2/12/2011 5:59:12 AM

If there are 25 funds to choose from, I might invest equally in the top 3, and use the same rotational strategy. What I have noticed is that the top funds are all highly correlated (e.g., a midcap value, midcap growth, small cap growth, etc).

I look at broad asset classes (US equities, Bonds, International/Emerging markets, real estate, commodities). In my TSP I only have 5 investment options (small cap, large cap, International, Fixed Income and some Target Date funds, and US Bonds). So I use IWM, SPY, EFA, TZG, and BND as proxies for these.

Eman93
4,659 posts
msg #99060
Ignore Eman93
2/12/2011 10:53:59 AM




MOOOOOOOOOOOOO!

Eman93
4,659 posts
msg #99061
Ignore Eman93
2/12/2011 10:59:14 AM

Another news Item

Unusually cold weather has seriously damaged Mexico's corn crop in the northern state of Sinaloa, with an estimated loss of more than four million tons of corn.


Frost has affected more than 400,000 hectares (1.5 million acres) of the harvest in Sinaloa, an area with some of Mexico's richest farmland, the state-funded BBC reported. The loss amounts to approximately 16 percent of the country's annual harvest.

In Sinaloa, an estimated 26,000 hectares of other vegetables, or 71 percent of the crops, were also destroyed. Green beans, cucumbers and squash crops were largely affected, according to Patricio Robles, director of the Confederation of State Farming Associations of Sinaloa.

Other northern states have reported crop damage as well, including corn, wheat, soy and vegetables.

President Felipe Calderon has met with farmers and state officials, promising federal aid, credit and insurance payments to help farmers plant new crops within the next two weeks before the sowing season is over.

"It is not an ordinary catastrophe or the simple loss of a harvest, but an emergency situation that demands a clear and forceful response from the authorities, a response that is not lost in bureaucratic delays," President Felipe Calderon said.

"It's not just the billions of pesos that may be lost," he added. "We have to recover all we can because it is vital for feeding the country."

Mexico's Agriculture Ministry has said it will increase market imports to make up for the loss, which has already seen an increase in corn imports from the US since the passing of NAFTA.

Reports indicated that the prices of corn, which is a staple food in Mexico, have been rising steadily with the rise in grain prices on global markets. The recent loss of the harvest due to the freeze is expected to increase the price even further.

Eman93
4,659 posts
msg #99062
Ignore Eman93
2/12/2011 11:05:47 AM

will prob see a move in MOO next week it has broken above resistance at 57 looks like next resistance point will be 59.50 to 60

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