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64 posts
msg #115761
Ignore olathegolf
10/8/2013 11:03:07 PM

olathegolf: oldsmar52, congratulations on your success. Please explain your exit strategy if you did not make 2% on a trade. Did you simply set a sell order at 2% and then close the trade at the end of the week if the sell order did not trigger?

oldsmar52: For OLATHEGOLF: I just put in a good till canceled order at a 2% profit.
oldsmar52, makes sense that you set a GTC @2%. However, there have been times when a stock does not recover and trigger the 2% gain. While you have enjoyed exceptional success, I'm guessing your win percentage is not 100%. So, what is your exit strategy if a stock drops and does not recover? At what point do you take a loss and live another day? Thanks again for sharing.

60 posts
msg #115763
Ignore durgin
10/9/2013 12:25:49 AM


The major way that people were able to identify Bernie Madoff as a fake was that he continuously reported annual returns of 10%. You reported consistent annual returns of 100%. At the same time, you limited the upside to 2% while not using a stop to limit downside risk. Just today, the average loss of this week's selected stocks was about 4%.

There are several other clues that suggest being skeptical of your claims such as looking at your past posts to this board.

I was skeptical from the start but thought you should get the benefit of the doubt. However your claims keep looking less likely. So I wonder if you really are going to buy a residence at The Villages in Florida. If so, when you get to Ocala drive south not north!

24 posts
msg #115764
Ignore shainadir
10/9/2013 1:29:53 AM


You need to reread his post. He buys at market on Monday mornings and sells as soon as he reaches his goal of 2%. For this past Monday morning, the first 10 under the twopercent column: CSIQ, DUST, EVC, CPRX, HSOL, GSAT, ZHNE, VIPS, PACB, RSOL. All except GSAT, have already reached the 2% goal.

104 posts
msg #115768
Ignore oldsmar52
10/9/2013 10:02:58 AM

For Mahkoh: Not exactly sure what your comment about DUST means? I think you mean that DUST gained 3.5% for the one day? My goal was/is to take 2% & get out.....

For Durgin: The only thing you're right about is driving south not typo/mistake. I would suggest you stay out of the stock buying as you've proven you can't read & comprehend what's in front of you. As you said, "Just today, the average loss of this week's selected stocks was about 4%." I had already been in and out of them with a 2% gain before that happened. Whether I'm able to convince you of what this filter with it's probabilities for profit can do, would be the last of my concerns. If a person is willing to accept 2% per week its pretty easy to see what compounding can do. Most people would think, however, "2%.....that's not much!!" Oh well, you're free to see it however you want.

For anyone interested: Lord knows I'm not attempting to sell anything or trying to MAKE you believe anything. The only thing I'm offering to stick in your head is to get an understanding of what 2% can amount to over time & if I can have a minimum 80% chance of making that 2% every week, that that's about as good as the statistics can get.

34 posts
msg #115775
10/9/2013 11:32:40 AM

oldsmar52 Give me a break! You make it sound like I'm trying to rewrite the Bill of Rights. Your 100% a year assumes no losing trades using TRO's original code. Even a casual check shows many losses. Even if you could make 100% a year, why would it peeve you to see an improvement on that?

34 posts
msg #115776
10/9/2013 11:39:16 AM

Just reread yor posts and see that you are using 2% and not the 1% that TRO set up his code for. So at 80% you could get 100% in a year.
But if you get in at the open, you get more like 50% reliability. No offense intended, I just couldn't see why you'd be "peeved" by my post.

3,859 posts
msg #115779
Ignore Kevin_in_GA
10/9/2013 1:12:58 PM

Just to inject some basic mathematics into this discussion, let's assume that you do the following:

1. Take 5 trades per week (could be more over time but for now we'll just use five). All trades are the same size.
2. You make your 2% target 80 percent of the time (4/5).
3. Your losing trade costs you on average 5% (could be less, but this is a relatively stiff penalty and these stocks are relatively volatile).
4. For the moment, slippage and commissions are ignored.

You would end up making (2+2+2+2-5)/5 = 0.6% per week. Using compounding that works out to be (1.006)^52 = 36.5% per year.

If you assume that the losing trade only costs you 3% instead of 5% you net out at 1% per week or 67.7% per annum. Factoring in commissions and slippage you might get a 50% realized gain - still exceptionally good for most traders.

If you are trading 10 "units" and 9 of them hit the 2% target and the losing trade is still 3% your numbers get a lot better - (2+2+2+2+2+2+2+2+2-3)/10 = 1.5% per week, or with compounding 116% per annum before commissions and slippage.

What I see in this system as most attractive is that you are highly likely to have a winning week, almost every week. The exact annualized returns aside, very few systems can do that, and as an investor it is hard to find fault in a system that makes you money every week with little or no time spent trying to time the market.

641 posts
msg #115783
Ignore mahkoh
10/9/2013 2:56:41 PM

What I meant with DUST is the following statistic

2% gain from open 48 times out of the last 52 weeks
2.5% gain 47 times
3% gain 45 times
3.5 % gain 44 times
4 % gain 42 times

What I'm trying to point out is that you could aim a bit higher without substantially diminishing your odds.

3,859 posts
msg #115785
Ignore Kevin_in_GA
10/9/2013 3:21:25 PM

Not sure that I would trade the improvement in upside for the hits you would take - in the misses that you would suffer through some of the drops are 15% or more. Ouch.

I think Frank has the right idea.

BTW, here is my "streamlined" version of TRO's filter. Just cut out some of the distractions and kept the focus on the 1% and 2% gains. I also raised the price to above 5 to absorb some of the bid/ask spread issues that might hurt your returns (IMHO).


/* TRO STAT SCAN for SWING TRADERS - use only on Saturday and Sunday */

set{whiop, weekly high - weekly open}
set{Long_Profit, whiop / weekly open }
set{wkProfitPct, 100 * Long_Profit }

set{onepct, count(Long_Profit > .01 , 52)}
set{twopct, count(Long_Profit > .02 , 52)}
set{triggered, count(Long_Profit > .02 , 1)}


set{onepcttriggered, count(Long_Profit > .01 , 1)}
set{twopcttriggered, count(Long_Profit > .02 , 1)}

add column wkProfitPct
add column onepct {hit 1% target over last 52 weeks}
add column twopct {hit 2% target over last 52 weeks}

and add column separator
add column onepcttriggered {hit 1% target this week}
add column twopcttriggered {hit 2% target this week}
and add column separator
and add column weekly open {wopen}
and add column weekly high {whigh}
and add column weekly low {wlow}
and add column weekly close {wclose}
and add column separator

close is above 5
average volume(90) above 500000

sort column 7 descending

chart-display is weekly


641 posts
msg #115787
Ignore mahkoh
10/9/2013 4:36:12 PM

Surely you'll increase your chances of taking a loss by aiming higher, but if you make 1 % extra the other 45 weeks you can afford 3 hits of -15% (without compounding). What it comes down to is finding the right reward/risk ratio. But I understand that Frank does not exit unless the target is reached so in his case the risk is a 20% capital loss in the case of bankruptcy.
The larger risk is having a part of the capital locked up for a longer period, and if you're long a leveraged ETF it could mean trouble, especially for inversed ones.
But as Frank mentioned they usually close out profitable within a couple of weeks.

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