StockFetcher Forums · Filter Exchange · TRO'S CROCK POT 2.0<< 1 2 3 4 5 ... 8 >>Post Follow-up
805 posts
msg #115918
Ignore marine2
10/15/2013 12:25:10 AM

Hey, me too. Let me fire up my jet. Be right over.

64 posts
msg #115920
Ignore olathegolf
10/15/2013 4:33:29 AM

Backtesting the frsrblch version from 10/14 (June 14, 2013 - October 4, 2013):

1. Buy everything on the list
2. 2% profit stop
3. No stop loss. Hold stock until 2%profit triggered

195 entries
191 wins @2% gain each
4 currently holding
.....7/16 EVC @ 10% current loss
.....8/9 EVC @ 10% current loss
.....8/9 MTG @ 5% current loss
.....9/27 OWW @12% current loss

171 of the 191 wins were triggered the week entering the trade.
If you simply closed out all trades at the end of the week, 24 stocks would have been closed without a 2% gain. The cumulative loss of these 24 stocks would be 140% (5.8% average). This is offset by 171 wins @2% (342% total).

Will continue to backtest and post results......

637 posts
msg #115921
Ignore mahkoh
10/15/2013 7:32:39 AM

Have the best of both worlds: Change "weekly open" in the 1st and 2nd line of the filter to "weekly close 1 week ago"
You'll see stats for entering an order at the close on Friday and have it trigger your 2 % during the next week.

35 posts
msg #115922
Ignore frsrblch
10/15/2013 9:40:09 AM

olathegolf, what was the average length of time these trades were held for before they hit the 2% profit stop? It complicates the system a little, but it's fairly remarkable if you can change the win rate from 87% to 98%.

104 posts
msg #115932
Ignore oldsmar52
10/15/2013 11:42:18 AM

From the Avery original filter you can add EVC, PACB & VIPS as 2% gainers. This is going to be my last post on this site as my wife has headed to Florida with $600,000 to buy our retirement home for cash, how happy do you think she is? I'll be leaving as soon as our Vegas home has settled on 29 October. To the original Avery filter for a minute: when I saw him post this 5 years ago I saw a gold mine as I understood what 2% compounding can do, and am not sure anyone here understands that. Am also not sure which filter Olathegolf came up with some results from but he posted that of 195 entries, 191 made 2% & that's 98%!!! I said that I'd made 100% because, if they drop, they rather quickly (3 weeks or so) come back to get the 2% gain.
What I'm sure of? I knew that when I made a comment about what I'd been able to do with the original filter, it wouldn't take long for someone to say "it needs to be modified/changed and you're full of BS".....and it didn't. It doesn't need to be modified. Something else I'm sure of? I'll give it a month or so & everyone will drift away from this method because its too slow at making money or whatever reason they may come up with.
And for Durgin: he thought he'd found the second coming of Bernie Madoff....he'd found a liar and a scammer. Good luck Durgin in finding another Madoff because you didn't find him here.

35 posts
msg #115933
Ignore frsrblch
10/15/2013 12:17:47 PM

"I knew that when I made a comment about what I'd been able to do with the original filter, it wouldn't take long for someone to say "it needs to be modified/changed and you're full of BS".....and it didn't. It doesn't need to be modified."

The first thing I do once I have a system like this modeled in Excel is to start throwing ideas at it, analyzing the hell out of it in an attempt to make it better. Different combination, profit stops, and trading methods. How effective is the system if you take 8% profit instead if 2%? What if you hold each stock until Friday, regardless of what it did? What if you hold onto stocks that didn't perform well in the first week? I find this kind of analysis very stimulating - perhaps something missing from my actual job. The post you made about your results trading the original filter, other people's opinions of its accuracy aside, brought my interest back to a system I had originally overlooked for being too difficult to backtest within StockFetcher. Having finally looked into it, I can see the potential... but I'm still going to poke and prod to get my fun. Best of luck to you and yours, Frank.

27 posts
msg #115940
Ignore dknoonan
10/15/2013 2:57:42 PM

Birds fly, fish swim, and SF people analyze. It is probably the one personality trait we all have in common. Most of us would probably analyze a rain drop sliding down a window pane!

268 posts
msg #115941
Ignore novacane32000
10/15/2013 3:04:35 PM

Olathegolf, Very nice stats on the backtest. What scares the heck out of me with any system is the drawdown. If your gonna stay in the game you just have to be aware of the worse case scenerio.

With that said,when you have the time check the system for results during all of 2008.--- July thru Sept 2011 ----and May 2012.

3,828 posts
msg #115945
Ignore Kevin_in_GA
10/15/2013 4:18:55 PM

I'll be tracking the 13 week top performers as we go along here. Based on performance over the past 13 weeks, trades to be entered at the open on Monday October 14th are

SFUN - 100 shares
DUST - 115 shares
CSIQ - 250 shares
YOKU - 170 shares
WLT -340 shares

All have gone 13 for the last 13. Not sure what the open price will be, but these share amounts would put roughly $5000 into each trade.


All have triggered the 2% profit target for the week.

Amount placed at risk = $24,710

SFUN - 100 shares x (51.90 - 50.87) = $97.00 - ($7.95 x 2 for commissions) = $81.10
DUST - 115 shares x (42.61 - 41.72) = $102.35 - ($7.95 x 2 for commissions) = $86.45
CSIQ - 250 shares x (19.88- 19.48) = $100.00 - ($7.95 x 2 for commissions) = $84.10
YOKU - 170 shares x (29.79 - 29.20) = $100.30 - ($7.95 x 2 for commissions) = $84.40
WLT -340 shares x (14.98 - 14.68) = $102.00 - ($7.95 x 2 for commissions) = $86.10

Profit after commissions = $422.15 (+1.71%)

This is about as good as you can do using the filter as intended. As you compound this (next week we can put up to $5080 per trade) it will get better. One might consider raising the profit target to cover the trading costs - for a $5,000 play that would require upping the limit to 2.32%.

683 posts
msg #115948
Ignore duke56468
10/15/2013 5:39:56 PM

@oldsmar52...thanks for sharing your journey, and congratulations on your success. And thanks to TRO. It got us all to rethinking this filter.

StockFetcher Forums · Filter Exchange · TRO'S CROCK POT 2.0<< 1 2 3 4 5 ... 8 >>Post Follow-up

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