StockFetcher Forums · Filter Exchange · Tails, ODRs & ROCdiv...OH MY !!!<< 1 2 3 4 5 ... 52 >>Post Follow-up
richo
74 posts
msg #81052
Ignore richo
10/14/2009 6:52:56 AM

Thanks for your prompt response. After I posted the question it occurred to me that plugging in market etf would be a
simple move to gauge the indexes by looking at qqqq, spy, dia etc.. so thanks for confirming that. I noticed that INTC
turned right at the pivot (20.69) yesterday, a new 52 week high and also in advance of earnings. It looks like this could
ride above the rsi(2) at least briefly. I am thinking of buying if it bounces off the ema(10) given that it is a leader in a sector gaining strength . Additionally the adx(14) is above 20 and rising and +di is above -di. Any thoughts?

Regards,

Rich

richo
74 posts
msg #81189
Ignore richo
10/16/2009 6:40:37 AM

ALF,

Thanks again for the filter. Could you break this down with an example of an index ETF ? I am particularly interested
in SPY and QQQQ. How do use this for short, intermediate and long term turns/trend changes?I tried plugging in market ETF
and got 245 hits. I would prefer to limit it to index etfs

Thanx,

Rich

choymi8828
47 posts
msg #81204
Ignore choymi8828
modified
10/16/2009 9:53:27 AM

Alf44,

Thanks for the earlier detail response for me, much appreciated..............:-)

1. Like Richo, it will be very helpful if you could demonstrate with a stock from your filter. Run it through with your selection criteria.

2. Do you use this filter for a 3 to 5 days swing or some other timeframe ?


Thank you for your valuable time.

Michael

alf44
2,025 posts
msg #81219
Ignore alf44
modified
10/16/2009 11:00:54 AM

FYI ... to limit the number of ETF symbols...you can create a Watchlist...and then use the "Apply to Watchlist(XYZ)" feature.

Or...

You can use the "Apply to symlist(XYZ)" feature...and avoid having to first create a Watchlist.

Just add the ETF symbols you want to see.

-----

As for the other question(s) ... I'm not necessarily looking for long term implications with these set-ups. Having said that, there is a very high probability that any BIG reversal will start with one (or, a combination) of these 3 patterns ! imo

For my purposes, I primarily focus on 2 to 5 day swings and some scalp trades.

I'll try to post some examples in the coming days !

GLTY !


alf44
2,025 posts
msg #81381
Ignore alf44
modified
10/19/2009 2:04:35 PM


KLAC ... In The Trenches with Tails, ODRs & ROCdiv !!!
____________________________________________________

This is every signal this filter spit out for KLAC from August to present (ie. Friday Oct. 16) !

Not meant to be hindsight...just chart examples of the 3 patterns...and some narrative about how best to play them. There are 1 or 2 "missed" potential trade set-ups during the period but...overall...it caught some really nice set-ups and (in my opinion) was VERY timely at the price swings !

This is "tape reading"...this is "price action"...this IS...the belly of the beast !!! lol


~ KLAC Chart ~





THE PATTERN SET-UPs

I've included the action "LONG or SHORT" ... with brief descriptions where warranted...for each set-up !


1. ROCdiv (8/7/09) - SHORT (actually a "long" ROCdiv but the trend of momentum is DOWN ...along with "slope opposition"... so SHORT was the logical play)

2. ROCdiv (8/20/09) - LONG (actually a "short" ROCdiv but with a Close both above Kijun and in the 91% day position...AND...the bullish divergence on Stoch a few days earlier LONG was the logical play)

3. ODR, ROCdiv (8/22/09) - LONG (slope opposition)

4. ODR (8/28/09) - SHORT (O/B Stoch with 20 day high and bearish divergence on ROC)

5. & 6. ODR, ROCdiv (9/2/09) - LONG (O/S Stoch) ... ODR (9/3/09) - LONG (O/S Stoch cross above 20)

7. ROCdiv (9/11/09) - LONG (slope opposition)

8. ROCdiv (9/16/09) - SHORT (20 day high dogi-like candle with an O/B Stoch and bearish divergence on ROC)

9. 10. & 11. ODR (9/21/09) - ROCdiv (9/22/09) - ODR (9/23/09) - SHORT SHORT SHORT (20 day highs with O/B Stoch and bearish divergence on ROC)

12. ROCdiv (9/29/09) - SHORT (slope opposition)

13. ODR, ROCdiv (10/5/09) - LONG (O/S Stoch with Kijun Support, Close in the 91% day position)

14. Tail, ODR, ROCdiv (10/12/09) - SHORT (20 day high with O/B Stoch and bearish divergence on ROC)

----------

WELCOME TO MY WORLD !!!

HTH !!!


Regards,

alf44


richo
74 posts
msg #81425
Ignore richo
10/20/2009 7:09:37 AM

Thanks for the breakdown. I am starting to get some of it. Could you do a similar breakdown of one of the index etf's
preferably spy or qqqq. How often did Klac turn on a pivot when you went long and short? I am asking because I wanted
to go long NVDA yesterday but my limit order (just above the pivot)was not filled and didn't get close to that number

Thanks

Rich

alf44
2,025 posts
msg #81437
Ignore alf44
modified
10/20/2009 10:46:40 AM

Rich,

Just so we're clear...there are "Daily Pivot NUMBERS"...calculated from the previous day's H / L / C... and ...
there are "price pivots"...which are spots on a chart where price reaches a turning point !

I make this distinction because it sounds from your NVDA reference that you are talking about Daily Pivots !

This filter was not designed with "Daily Pivot Numbers" in mind and has nothing whatever to do with them !

This filter seeks to find turning points (ie. price pivots) by scanning for 3 price patterns...each with precisely defined parameters within a single price bar.

Period !

That's it !

If there WAS any confusion about the two uses of the term "pivot"...hopefully this clears that up !

-----

As for a "breakdown" of an index etf...I don't really see how it accomplishes anything more than the KLAC example I posted but...who knows...if time permits...maybe I'll try to post something in the future.


GLTY !


alf44
2,025 posts
msg #81450
Ignore alf44
modified
10/20/2009 1:38:52 PM

...just to add...

...keep in mind..."single price bar" (be it Tail, ODR or ROCdiv)...is defined to an even greater degree by the price action of the preceeding 2, 3, even 5 days. All of this price action is explicit in the filter parameters for EACH of the 3 patterns.

The patterns don't happen in a vacuum ! They happen within a context of previous price action.

It is my belief that these 3 patterns (as I have defined them) occur with great frequency ... at turning points (pivots) on the daily chart !


Regards,

alf44


richo
74 posts
msg #81478
Ignore richo
10/21/2009 6:21:44 AM

ALF,

Yes I understand the difference and I was referring to the roc pivot @ 12.82. The low for the day was 13.22 on 10/19. It looked interesting because it was down for 5 consecutive days, the rsi was 1.48 and it had touched the lower bb. Do you give more weight to certain indicators on the index etfs or do you play them the same as individual stocks? One thing that is difficult is
interpreting all the ind columns

Rich

alf44
2,025 posts
msg #81495
Ignore alf44
modified
10/21/2009 11:48:04 AM

Rich,

Ahhh...I see...sorry for the confusion wrt the "pivot" !
-----

you ask...

Do you give more weight to certain indicators on the index etfs or do you play them the same as individual stocks ?

I treat them ALL the same...there has to be consistency in your approach to trade selection and decision making !

-----

...back to that NVDA trade and your reference to the "ROCpiv" column...

What the rocpiv (ROC pivot) column shows is the closing price (tomorrow) that will either maintain the current direction of the ROC(2) indicator...OR...turn it in the other direction.

That ROC pivot # is derived like this:

-----

Day 1 = Today's Close
Day 2 = Yesterday's Close
Day 3 = Close 2 days ago

...so the ROC pivot # for tomorrow will be...

Pivot = Day 1 (-) Day 3 (+) Day 2

-----

After you start watching these ROC pivots for a while, you can begin to get a "feel" for when the stock will really have to "reach" for that Pivot #...and by knowing when the momentum is likely to turn, you can "anticipate" the movement, up or down...FOR THE DAY !

It helps you establish a "trading bias" for which way the stock MIGHT move next. No long-term implications !

What the ROC(2) really is (aside from being a great short-term momentum indicator) is a proxy to gauge the "buy day", "sell day", "sell short day" rhythm that George Douglas Taylor wrote about many years ago. This is just a short-term indicator, used to try and determine 2 or 3 day market swings.

As for the "roc^" column...

What the roc^ column shows is how many consecutive days the ROC(2) has been moving either...UP (+ numbers)...or...DOWN (- numbers).

When the 2 period ROC moves 2 or 3 days in one direction...you can begin to expect it to turn in the other direction.

-----

So, with that background info...

...I look at those ROC pivots AND the number of days the ROC(2) has been either UP or DOWN...to give me a "trading bias" for how that stock MIGHT move tomorrow.

Just another piece of the puzzle !


Regards,

alf44


StockFetcher Forums · Filter Exchange · Tails, ODRs & ROCdiv...OH MY !!!<< 1 2 3 4 5 ... 52 >>Post Follow-up

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