StockFetcher Forums · Filter Exchange · Tails, ODRs & ROCdiv...OH MY !!!<< 1 ... 31 32 33 34 35 ... 52 >>Post Follow-up
alf44
2,025 posts
msg #96534
Ignore alf44
9/24/2010 1:40:19 PM




............................I AM ANGRY !!!


Eman93
4,659 posts
msg #96536
Ignore Eman93
9/24/2010 2:20:13 PM

this is F-ing up the weekly chart..

fortyfour
185 posts
msg #96546
Ignore fortyfour
modified
9/24/2010 4:43:21 PM

Optimists would say "scissors bottom" , incomplete W, retest.......

With my taking on and off this position this week I stand in there at a 6.5% loss on this "position"

For me...in TZA that is tolerable.......as swings in TZA are, usually/ can be, in the 10-30% area

I have added MORE to this position near the close.....

The downside or "stop" is pretty clear... " I can draw a line". at the 26.50 area.

Just FYI...... to participate in this thread........


Just to add one thing....for me.....having an opinion on the market direction on a day
to day basis is useless....I just have to constantly remind myself to play the lines, prices,
and crossovers in the overbught/oversold , battlegroud areas....

but.......

Sentiment remains bullish as hell ...excluding yesterdays one day reprieve.....
but as we know.....it can turn on a dime these days.....here's to hope.......



alf44
2,025 posts
msg #96554
Ignore alf44
modified
9/24/2010 11:08:53 PM


...having an opinion on the market direction on a day
to day basis is useless....


-----

Through a variety of chart set-ups ... I "try" to have "an opinion on the market" ...

... on a month to month basis

... on a week to week basis

... on a day to day basis

... on an hour to hour basis

And (with 5 & 10 min. charts) ...on a minute to minute basis !!!

---

I don't think it's "useless" at all !

In fact, trading WITHOUT some sort of "day to day" trading bias (that is based on thoughtful analysis of current price action) is something I could never be totally comfortable with !

The filter that this thread is based on ... seeks to do exactly THAT !!!

That is ... identify price patterns (ie. tails, odrs, rocdiv) based on individual candles ... that may give clues as to TOMORROW'S price action ... as well as identify pivots that may have longer term implications !!! fwiw

---

I will say this. This "Market" is RUN BY ROBOTS !!! imo

The "turn on a dime moves" are sometimes very suspicious and are increasingly difficult to navigate and to trade.

To try and "swing trade" this crap is becoming an "exercise in futility" ! imo

The days of giving a profitable trade "room to run" has (for the most part) apparently become a dangerous gamble !


* Case In Point: My Oct. INTC $19 PUTS were UP + 27% at one point yesterday ... today they're DOWN - 27% !!!


NOW that's enough to make you rethink your approach to trade management !

-----

In this "Market" ... if you're fortunate enough to have a G'Damned profit on a trade ... you better take it quick ... cause it is very likely to be gone ... POOF ... once "THE ROBOTS" start firing off BUY and SELL orders.

Today we had crap durable goods numbers ... but, some "jackwagon hedge fund SOB" shoots his mouth off on Squawk Box and ... AWAY WE GO !!!

Can you say "Short Squeeze" ???

RIDICULOUS !!!


All in my not so humble pissed off opinion !!!


alf44
2,025 posts
msg #96575
Ignore alf44
modified
9/26/2010 7:20:31 PM


FURTHER ...wrt a "daily trading bias" ... I stumbled across this some time ago ...

----------

Many studies have examined what is called "Daily Price Persistency."

Here are the probabilities of the movement of tomorrow's market based on the action of today's market ...

---

If today's market is up...there is a 73% probability of tomorrow's market being up as well, and a 27% probability that tomorrow's market will close down.

If today's market is down...there is a 62% probability that tomorrow's market will also be down , and only a 38% probability that the market will close higher.


* Historically the market has advanced on 58% of all market days, demonstrating its overall historic upward bias.


ALSO ... by examining the last 15 minutes of trading action and determining the direction of that last 15 minutes we gain additional insight into tomorrow.

If the last 15 minutes of market action are positive and the market overall closes higher, then the odds of tomorrow being an up day improve to 77% compared to the 73% previously stated.

Conversely, if the last 15 minutes of the market are negative on an overall down market day , the odds of the market going down tomorrow increase to 73% from the above mentioned 62%.

----------

It would be interesting to see someone try to write a filter (similar to TRO's Gap Statistics Filter) to see if we could test these assertions.


Create a NEW THREAD - (I repeat ... a NEW THREAD) - and put this to the test. Shouldn't be that difficult to do.


Anyone ???


alf44
2,025 posts
msg #96588
Ignore alf44
9/27/2010 11:23:43 PM


.......... HEAR YE ... HEAR YE ... HEAR YE !!! ..........



............... The ODRs are Here ... AGAIN !!! ...............


Eman93
4,659 posts
msg #96589
Ignore Eman93
modified
9/27/2010 11:54:18 PM

wrong thread.

alf44
2,025 posts
msg #96595
Ignore alf44
modified
9/28/2010 9:53:01 PM


......................... the action today .... .....................



............................... "SMELT !!!" .............................



alf44
2,025 posts
msg #96596
Ignore alf44
9/28/2010 10:02:22 PM


...............................Did I Mention ... uhhh ... that ...



.this "MARKET" Is Really Starting To Get On My Nerves !!!


alf44
2,025 posts
msg #96597
Ignore alf44
9/28/2010 10:08:05 PM


...let me reiterate ...

---

I'll say this. This "Market" is RUN BY ROBOTS !!! imo

The "turn on a dime moves" are sometimes very suspicious and are increasingly difficult to navigate and to trade.

To try and "swing trade" this crap is becoming an "exercise in futility" ! imo


---

THERE ... I SAID IT ... AGAIN !!!


StockFetcher Forums · Filter Exchange · Tails, ODRs & ROCdiv...OH MY !!!<< 1 ... 31 32 33 34 35 ... 52 >>Post Follow-up

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