StockFetcher Forums · Filter Exchange · Theme Trading.<< >>Post Follow-up
jpistell
123 posts
msg #33694
Ignore jpistell
10/26/2004 9:04:17 PM

I am a Theme Trader.
I write scripts to bring forth "set-ups". These write these set ups try to produce a win:loss ratio that will allow winners to run and identify the losers in 1 or 2 days max.

I'll post the "Theme" of the trade, then the script, then the exit script.

Theme:
Long term: Trend is up.
Short Term: the stock is fading.
Set-up Today: A white knuckle test of the bulls shows the bulls are in control.
Result "should be" resumption of the uptrend with a target just outside of the upper bollinger.


set{range, high - low}
set{closepos, close - low}
set{ratio, closepos / range}
Show stocks where the ratio is above .89
and price is above 4 and volume(90) is above 90000
and ma(200) has been increasing for 3 days
and close is above ma(200)
and low is below lower bollinger(14)
and volume has been increasing for 3 days

(I'm not too happy with the volume criteria, but its a start)

Rules for trade: Need + open
Risk evaluation and Exit rules:
Defense day 1 SELL STOP at open of one day ago (used for calc. loss ratio)
Defense day 2 SELL STOP at low day 1
Defense till trade closed at low of prior day.
Short term Trade Target: Penetration of upper bollinger

If anyone volume based "trigger" tweaks are welcome.



jpistell
123 posts
msg #33696
Ignore jpistell
10/26/2004 10:37:18 PM

Tonights output will be put to the test in tomorrow trading
(according to the trading criteria)

OVNT - OVERNITE CP...
NABC - NEW ALLIANCE BANCSH...
CMN - CANTEL MEDICAL CORP
OCLR - Ocular Sciences, Inc.
RADA - Radica Games Limited
FPO - FIRST POTOMAC REALT...
NAFC - Nash Finch Co ...

I especially like RADA this time of year as the Holiday Stocks setup approaches.



jpistell
123 posts
msg #33699
Ignore jpistell
10/27/2004 8:30:18 AM

entry rule addition.
buy stop > yesterday's high.


jpistell
123 posts
msg #33700
Ignore jpistell
10/27/2004 9:48:03 AM

9:40 am report.
Script Requirement Met: Buy Stop above yesterdsay's high
RADA: 9.72
OCLR: $48.09
NAFC: $30.35
OVNT: $33.09
CMN: $22.50
Exit Script: Sell stop below open one day ago.

5 of 7 met the criteria. Let's see how the win:loss ratio plays out.





jpistell
123 posts
msg #33704
Ignore jpistell
10/27/2004 4:16:10 PM

Day1
stock: Buy Stop: gain/(loss)
RADA: $9.72 : +.36
OCLR: $48.09 : +.35
NAFC: $30.35 : +.34
OVNT: $33.09 : +.24
CMN: $22.50 : +.21

5 winnners, no losers.
All too easy in a market like today!



jpistell
123 posts
msg #33713
Ignore jpistell
10/28/2004 12:22:51 PM

Day 2 Results.
ELGX -
NABC -
PAS -
XRAY -
Rules for trade: Buy Stop above yesterdays high

AM RESULTS: NONE.

===========================================================

Theme:
Long term: Trend is up.
Short Term: the stock is fading.
Set-up Today: A white knuckle test of the bulls shows the bulls are in control.
Result "should be" resumption of the uptrend with a target just outside of the upper bollinger.

Fetch[
set{range, high - low}
set{closepos, close - low}
set{ratio, closepos / range}
Show stocks where the ratio is above .89
and price is above 4 and volume(90) is above 90000
and ma(200) has been increasing for 3 days
and close is above ma(200)
and low is below lower bollinger(14)
and volume has been increasing for 3 days]

Rules for trade: Need + open
Risk evaluation and Exit rules:
Defense day 1 SELL STOP at open of one day ago (used for calc. loss ratio)
Defense day 2 SELL STOP at low day 1
Defense till trade closed at low of prior day.
Short term Trade Target: Penetration of upper bollinger

If anyone volume based "trigger" tweaks are welcome.



jpistell
123 posts
msg #33716
Ignore jpistell
10/28/2004 2:25:42 PM

"A Pause that Refreshes" Filter, Output day2

PAS buystop hit: $19.93




jpistell
123 posts
msg #33724
Ignore jpistell
10/28/2004 6:51:45 PM

Gains & losses Day2
stock: Gain/(loss) -----Sell Target $
RADA: +.48 ------------$10.50 target
NAFC: +.50 ------------$31.50 target
OVNT: -.09 ------------ sell stop up just under 32.73

OCLR: -----------TARGET HIT +$.80 net gain
CMN: ------------ STOPPED OUT $0 gain


jpistell
123 posts
msg #33743
Ignore jpistell
10/29/2004 6:16:05 PM

5 Trades with strict (but easy) rules.
Test Duration: 3 days.
3 Winners
1 No Gain
1 Loss
Avg. gain: $0.77
Avg. loss: $0.22

Gains & losses Day3
NAFC: ------------ STOPPED OUT +$.50 gain
RADA: -----------TARGET HIT +1.01
OCLR: -----------TARGET HIT +$.80 net gain
CMN: ------------ STOPPED OUT $0 gain
OVNT: ------------ STOPPED OUT $.23 loss

"A Pause the Refreshes" Filter Summary
Trend up.
Pull Back, testing lower bollinger
Enter this Trade requirement: Rising vol & close near high of day.

My $0.02
Simpler the filter the better.
Money Management is where the profit are.

Fetcher[set{range, high - low}
set{closepos, close - low}
set{ratio, closepos / range}
Show stocks where the ratio is above .89
and price is above 4 and volume(90) is above 90000
and ma(200) has been increasing for 3 days
and close is above ma(200)
and low is below lower bollinger(14)
and volume has been increasing for 3 days
]




jpistell
123 posts
msg #33744
Ignore jpistell
10/29/2004 6:18:58 PM

A Pause that Refreshes" Filter, Output day2

PAS: --------- TARGET HIT

Sold Trade on day 3: +$.45


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