StockFetcher Forums · Filter Exchange · bollinger bands<< 1 2 3 4 5 ... 23 >>Post Follow-up
wallman
299 posts
msg #26260
Ignore wallman
4/17/2003 9:50:51 PM

HI SHELSHEL, i've been using this method for about 18 months now and continue to be amazed by it,your adjusting to fit your schedule is excellent,can't argue with 90%,i believe you are correct in buying the higher volume ones first as i've found them to be the higher % gainers,i know that not being able to watch the first hour of trading can be a problem as you want to try to get these as they are showing green 15 to 20 mins after the open but you seem to have worked it out and yes 5-10 dollar stocks are your best bet if you are buying before the open,keep up the good work!


janeiro
25 posts
msg #26262
Ignore janeiro
4/18/2003 5:43:24 AM

Wallman,

I wanna hereby show my gratitude to you for the great filter you decided to share with the users of this service and I hope that this example will prove to everybodies that working all togheter is the best way to go.

Thx again Wallman

David


sbeckers
20 posts
msg #26264
Ignore sbeckers
4/18/2003 2:32:49 PM

this seems to be a good idea, here are some suggestions to increase success.

Add a range function : today's day range reached a four day low
(this tells us that momentum is decreasing in the movement, also that the stock is primed for an volatility expansion)

Be aware of the overall trend, use a directional index (DI+,DI-) or a moving average (200 day MA).


janeiro
25 posts
msg #26267
Ignore janeiro
4/19/2003 7:42:52 AM

Hi Sbeckers,

today's day range reached a four day low ..it does not seems to improve the results...how did u go exactly?

Ciao David


wallman
299 posts
msg #26271
Ignore wallman
4/19/2003 12:18:54 PM

what i've found in the past is when indicators are added to this filter it will throw out MANY high % gainers,obviously these stocks trends are down or they wouldn't be down at least 3 days in a row AND at the bottom bb,if you are talking about overall market trend that hasn't mattered over the 18+ months iv'e been trading it either,if you are looking for a cross of a moving average or DI+ DI- cross by the time these stocks hit it you will have given up at least 10% gain most times much more,the idea is too keep it simple and i believe your efforts would be better served by trying to sort these stocks by learning to seperate the large gainers by looking at their charts for the volume increase and the bottom shadow on the last candle(which shows that altough the price decreased there was enough buying pressure to push the stock well beyond it's low)and the volume increase can be significant in the fact that many mutual funds and institutions have auto buy orders in when a stock they are interested in hits the price area of the bottom bb,that's why many of these stocks continue to run for a couple of weeks cause they don't buy all at once,they spread their large block trades out over that couple of weeks. I assume the above mentioned day range is for individual stocks and together with this filter it will greatly reduce the stocks you have to chart but i believe it will also reduce your high % gains, also if you can you want to practice as much as possible your entry pionts at the open,just write down the prices at which you would have entered if it would have been a real trade and soon you should get a real good feel for it!GOOD LUCK,RESPECTIVLY,MUDDY


janeiro
25 posts
msg #26274
Ignore janeiro
4/19/2003 1:49:47 PM

Wallman,

I 100% agree with you about what u say in the msg above...but as I studied during these last week the charts found with your filter in order to find some common pattern...I have to say that big gainers...are not only the ones that have a candlestick with long bottom shadow...

Ciao D.




wallman
299 posts
msg #26276
Ignore wallman
4/19/2003 4:37:26 PM

DAVID,you are absolutly correct about the big gainers not just coming from long shadows these past weeks,turns out that the method is so hot right now big gains are coming from any candle formation,iv'e seen it have periods like this about 4 times in last 18 months that last about 4-6 weeks,but in NORMAL times i'd say about 2/3rds of the nice gains come from a longer bottom shadow than a top one and as i've said before a pickup in volume in last day or two seems to go hand in hand with it,like i said if a stock matches but doesn't have that bottom tail and you like it AND you can make a good entry,go for it during this hot period just keep tracking the filter to see when(if)it cools off somewhat then go back to bottom shadow plays,whatever works for you.---- p.s i tried your email from message on 4/17 but keeps getting returned with bad address(?)


sbeckers
20 posts
msg #26279
Ignore sbeckers
4/19/2003 11:42:11 PM

Wallman,
If you have been trading this method for 18 months, then you are the one to learn from on this trade, congratulations on your diligence.

I wrote earlier about range (high-low) referring to the tendencies of stocks to follow through for 2-3 days after breakout from a narrow range day. If your trade is in the direction of the trend it has an even higher probability.

Could it be that what happens in your pattern is that weaker hands get washed out outside of the bollinger band, so you are actually looking for a WIDER range day, possibly with a smaller candle body?

In your experience I wonder if you have taken notice as to whether range is expanding or contracting into your buy point on the most successful trades? When you talk about long tails can you relate the signal day's range to the range of previous days?

Also, on your most successful trades, what has the opening reaction been? Are you looking for a powerful gap in the direction of the trade?

thanks,

sam


wallman
299 posts
msg #26283
Ignore wallman
4/20/2003 11:21:10 PM

HI SAM,thx for the compliment,in that 18 months i tried a lot of tweaking but highest win% to profit% ratio always came down to the simple,basic one that i've shared with you,during the first 4 months of that 18 i just papertraded and looked back on the charts to try to identify common traits of the winners and of the losers,then i worked on my entry pionts,i believe you are right about the weaker holders getting out at bottom bb,that is why i like to see the volume increase,i want them out as soon as possible,not little by little, day after day, which i found out happens on smaller volume days,to try to answer your ?'s: i would definitly say that the bigger gainers show a range expansion prior to the breakout,the length of the candle body plus shadows is much larger(sometimes 2 or 3 days in a row) than the way the stock has been trading in the past few weeks,some exs. to look at are TIVO 4-11,MUSE 3-11 4-11,BPUR 1-28 3-25,ADIC 4-8,AV 3-31, AAII 3-20 AWA 3-19,as for longer tails they will relate to an expanding range if added to the body length the candle plus shadows is longer the the previus 2 or 3 days and the opening reaction on most good gainers is maybe only a few cents at the open and a gradual buildup after about 10:15 that's why i like to buy around 9:50 or so,as for gaps up at the open of say 4% or more i just let em go,i won't chase em,there's too many better entrys tomorrow or the next,just gotta try to have some patience


janeiro
25 posts
msg #26284
Ignore janeiro
4/21/2003 7:25:29 AM

Hi WALLMAN...

>>p.s i tried your email from message on 4/17 but keeps getting returned with bad address(?)<<

first read my email address (the capital letters...) than do exactly what it say...(to218775@REMOVEMEhotmail.com)...it's a very well know trick...if you can try to get in touch with me before the market open...maybe I have something to share with u.

ciao David



StockFetcher Forums · Filter Exchange · bollinger bands<< 1 2 3 4 5 ... 23 >>Post Follow-up

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