StockFetcher Forums · Filter Exchange · how to greatly increase your winning % on options right before earnings<< >>Post Follow-up
MARY4MONEY
806 posts
msg #87453
Ignore MARY4MONEY
modified
1/29/2010 5:41:39 PM

zzzzzzzzzzz8








chetron
2,817 posts
msg #87509
Ignore chetron
1/31/2010 11:47:12 AM

Date : 1/29/2010 5:41:39 PM
Author : MARY4MONEY
--------------------------------

first you need to know what the astock has moved for the last 4 earnings-the %^ average- you want ones >/10% and the higher the better--qcom was at about 12%- so it was in play on the 27th before the close--you go to crimson mind.com to check for the 2 day movement on the put call ratio- if it spikes up hard the stock will likely go down- if it goes down stock will likely go up--lets look at qcom--even though it showed a strong call side on the 27th- it showed a move 0.36-1.26 from the 25th-27th- plus the other real important thing to look at is the call action above the stock and the put acttion below the stock price--- on the 27th it was 10 to one on the put side below the price-- so i went with the 47-42 puts big time---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------2010/01/27 Buy to Open QCOM Feb 10 43.00 Put QCOM 217.0 $0.30 -$6,542.55
2010/01/27 Buy to Open QCOM Feb 10 42.00 Put QCOM 10.0 $0.20 -$201.50
2010/01/27 Buy to Open QCOM Feb 10 42.00 Put QCOM 42.0 $0.20 -$846.30
2010/01/27 Buy to Open QCOM Feb 10 44.00 Put QCOM 2.0 $0.44 -$88.30
2010/01/27 Buy to Open QCOM Feb 10 44.00 Put QCOM 1.0 $0.44 -$52.65
2010/01/27 Buy to Open QCOM Feb 10 44.00 Put QCOM 47.0 $0.44 -$2,075.05
2010/01/27 Buy to Open QCOM Feb 10 45.00 Put QCOM 7.0 $0.65 -$456.05
2010/01/27 Buy to Open QCOM Feb 10 45.00 Put QCOM 5.0 $0.65 -$325.75
2010/01/27 Buy to Open QCOM Feb 10 45.00 Put QCOM 6.0 $0.65 -$390.90
2010/01/27 Buy to Open QCOM Feb 10 45.00 Put QCOM 139.0 $20.85 -$9,055.85
2010/01/28 Sell to Close QCOM Feb 10 45.00 Put QCOM -120.0 $18.00 $50,382.00 2010/01/28 Sell to Close QCOM Feb 10 43.00 Put QCOM -50.0 $2.65 $13,242.50 2010/01/28 Sell to Close QCOM Feb 10 42.00 Put QCOM -148.0 $1.91 $28,245.80 ----------------------------------------------that worked out very well i stillhave 80% of my buys-will hold till monday depending if the market reverses up--------okay the other stock that was a n excellent on was nflx--it moved about 22% on its last 4 earnings -it did the exact opposite-- big drop in put/call ratio- and heavly schewed to the out of the money march and feb calls- so i bought the feb 52.5-65 and the march 57.5-75-------------------------2010/01/27 Buy to Open NFLX Feb 10 60.00 Call NFLX 107.0 $0.50 -$5,366.05
2010/01/27 Buy to Open NFLX Feb 10 60.00 Call NFLX 35.0 $0.50 -$1,755.25
2010/01/27 Buy to Open NFLX Feb 10 65.00 Call NFLX 101.0 $0.15 -$1,530.15 2010/01/27 Buy to Open NFLX Feb 10 57.50 Call NFLX 55.0 $0.90 -$4,958.25
2010/01/27 Buy to Open NFLX Feb 10 57.50 Call NFLX 58.0 $0.90 -$5,228.70
2010/01/29 Sell to Close NFLX Feb 10 65.00 Call NFLX -8.0 $2.00 $1,598.80
2010/01/29 Sell to Close NFLX Feb 10 65.00 Call NFLX -40.0 $2.00 $7,994.00
2010/01/29 Sell to Close NFLX Feb 10 65.00 Call NFLX -2.0 $2.00 $391.20
2010/01/29 Sell to Close NFLX Feb 10 60.00 Call NFLX -15.0 $5.20 $7,797.75
also most importantly make sure they are not way over priced like msft calls were- by as much as 300%- you can check this - under options-they have a calculator==Schaeffer's Options Center
-------Option Pricing Calculator---on the 57.5 calls onnflx on the 27th------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Expiration Month Expiration Year Strike Price Option Type Implied Volatility Market Price Calculated Price
February 2010 57.5 CALL 60.497 0.90 1.8457 they wereb 0.90 but worth 1.85--- the 160 s were 0.50 but worth 1.31------the 65 s were 0.15 but worth 0.64---- 0n qcom the 42 puts were 0.20 but worth 0.59---the 43 s were 0.30 but worth 0.81-- at todays close there were 100 s of feb calls dirt cheap--on stec at the close- the 15 s were 0.55 but worth 0.68




skiiiva
37 posts
msg #87513
Ignore skiiiva
1/31/2010 1:43:57 PM

chet your awsome

thanks

chetron
2,817 posts
msg #87518
Ignore chetron
1/31/2010 2:16:32 PM

YOU ARE VERY WELCOME = )

mystiq
650 posts
msg #89821
Ignore mystiq
3/18/2010 5:55:25 AM

i second that...

abelincoln
126 posts
msg #89944
Ignore abelincoln
3/19/2010 1:25:28 PM

I...turd dat

tankz chet

Mur-
Mur-
Mur-
Mur Maaarrrry...:-)

what a flickin...jeenius

simply, wid no high fructose corn syrup
=========

optionsoblam/er
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StockFetcher Forums · Filter Exchange · how to greatly increase your winning % on options right before earnings<< >>Post Follow-up

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