StockFetcher Forums · Filter Exchange · the best 0f the mm manipulation<< 1 2 >>Post Follow-up
holygrail
72 posts
msg #29525
Ignore holygrail
10/28/2003 3:55:07 PM

what happens usually before a big move up on a stock is that the volume and trading range go to their lowest level within 1-4 days before a good move up- the filter i will give you is great- what i did was use rsi(2) at below 5% to catch the low volume at the bottom- and you can use any $ range you want- the filter man construction is find stocks where volumr is less than 20% of the 10 day ave vol here it is and remember chaper is better and this works vbecause the mm s have taken out all the over head resistence- recent exampls are dbbd today sevu 0.19-0.70 last week the filer
set{vol%, volume/average volume(10)}show stocks where average volume(10) above 20000 and add column vol% and draw vol% and close below 0.55 and vol% below 0.20 and rsi(2) below 5 here are the result for my 20% volume filter Performance results for your filter covering the dates:
Wednesday October 22, 2003 to Monday October 27, 2003

Change Offset
<< Week Day Previous Next Day Week >>
Results For Next... Overall Adv(%) Dec(%) Adv vs Dec Unch IXIC(%) DJIA(%)
1 Day +1.84% 2 (+10.12%) 0 (n/a)
9 -0.66% +0.16%
2 Days +5.24% 3 (+30.32%) 1 (-33.33%)
7 -1.71% -0.16%
3 Days +7.01% 3 (+25.71%) 0 (n/a)
8 -0.80% +0.10%
Current +7.01% 3 (+25.71%) 0 (n/a)
8 -0.80% +0.10%

it works better after a week here are the weekly returns because you have to take into account the 1-5 day reversal up on it Change Offset
<< Week Day Previous Next Day Week >>
Results For Next... Overall Adv(%) Dec(%) Adv vs Dec Unch IXIC(%) DJIA(%)
1 Day +0.93% 1 (+8.33%) 0 (n/a)
8 +0.57% -0.12%
2 Days +1.94% 1 (+25.00%) 2 (-3.75%)
6 -1.38% -0.83%
3 Days +6.11% 3 (+18.33%) 0 (n/a)
6 -0.72% -0.26%
4 Days +38.98% 4 (+89.58%) 1 (-7.50%)
4 +0.09% -0.57%
1 Week +18.06% 4 (+40.63%) 0 (n/a)
5 -2.12% -2.09%
Current +45.56% 4 (+112.50%) 3 (-13.33%)
2 -2.90% -1.99%
9 matching stocks



set{vol%, volume/average volume

Change Offset
<< Week Day Previous Next Day Week >>
Results For Next... Overall Adv(%) Dec(%) Adv vs Dec Unch IXIC(%) DJIA(%)
1 Day +1.17% 2 (+12.70%) 1 (-12.50%)
8 +0.95% +0.93%
2 Days +2.72% 4 (+10.61%) 1 (-12.50%)
6 +1.46% +1.43%
3 Days +3.40% 4 (+20.82%) 2 (-22.92%)
5 +1.24% +1.33%
4 Days +10.86% 5 (+28.90%) 1 (-25.00%)
5 +1.82% +1.21%
1 Week +12.54% 4 (+51.14%) 3 (-22.22%)
4 -0.15% +0.49%
Current +31.98% 3 (+155.56%) 4 (-28.72%)
4 -1.69% -0.69%
11 Change Offset
<< Week Day Previous Next Day Week >>
Results For Next... Overall Adv(%) Dec(%) Adv vs Dec Unch IXIC(%) DJIA(%)
1 Day +9.24% 5 (+22.17%) 0 (n/a)
7 +0.76% +0.62%
2 Days +5.44% 4 (+19.27%) 1 (-11.76%)
7 +0.02% +0.37%
3 Days +7.65% 6 (+23.54%) 2 (-24.75%)
4 +0.97% +0.89%
4 Days +17.17% 9 (+25.51%) 1 (-23.53%)
2 +1.15% +0.83%
1 Week +20.58% 8 (+35.16%) 2 (-17.16%)
2 +2.12% +1.77%
Current +24.60% 8 (+41.07%) 1 (-33.33%)
3 -0.56% +0.14%
12 see if you can make this even better good luck lerogeeChange Offset
<< Week Day Previous Next Day Week >>
Results For Next... Overall Adv(%) Dec(%) Adv vs Dec Unch IXIC(%) DJIA(%)
1 Day +13.60% 3 (+36.27%) 0 (n/a)
5 +0.69% +0.24%
2 Days +7.18% 2 (+30.21%) 1 (-2.94%)
5 +1.45% +0.86%
3 Days +6.79% 3 (+26.39%) 2 (-12.40%)
3 +0.70% +0.61%
4 Days +5.45% 2 (+31.25%) 2 (-9.46%)
4 +1.67% +1.13%
1 Week +21.07% 3 (+62.50%) 2 (-9.46%)
3 +1.85% +1.07%
Current +5220.90% 6 (+6961.20%) 0 (n/a)
2 +0.12% +0.37%
8 matching stocks

see how it catch spectacular results at times

set{vol%, volume/average volume(10)}show stocks where average volum...






holygrail
72 posts
msg #29527
Ignore holygrail
10/28/2003 4:00:03 PM

the avarage weekly return on this filter for stocks <0.55 is 17% and monthly 55% up to five dollars its 10% and about 35%


mika
131 posts
msg #29530
Ignore mika
10/28/2003 5:58:43 PM

Been noticing this phenomenon for a while.. Donno 'bout "MM manipulation".. Seems like sellers are just not selling anymore.. and then buyers realizing this begin to come in and eventually drive the price up..

The trick is to know when the selling has REALLY subsided, and here volume is again the key. Only this time it's greater volume on green. The problem, is catching these using a filter algorithem. I like the Dragon-Tail filter because it condencess this process to 1 day as the price gets "hammered" in and volume accelerates. But really the best way to catch these is to eye the stocks of interest on a chart..




mika
131 posts
msg #29533
Ignore mika
10/28/2003 8:34:34 PM

set{vol%, volume/average volume(10)}
and vol% is below 0.6
set{ae5, ema(5)/atr(5)}
and ae5 is between 5 and 15
and COG(9) is below -0.1
and lrs(45) is above 0
and average volume(45) is above 90000
and low is between 0.7 and 4.7
and Exchange is Nasdaq

Looks *very* good :)


JoeGrossinger
165 posts
msg #29536
Ignore JoeGrossinger
10/28/2003 9:53:53 PM

Am I missing something or are all of these filters mostly RED?

Fetcher[
set{vol%, volume/average volume(10)}
and vol% is below 0.6
set{ae5, ema(5)/atr(5)}
and ae5 is between 5 and 15
and COG(9) is below -0.1
and lrs(45) is above 0
and average volume(45) is above 90000
and low is between 0.7 and 4.7
and Exchange is Nasdaq
and date offset is 5
]



The other filter
Fetcher[
set{vol%, volume/average volume(10)}show stocks where average volume(10) above 20000 and add column vol% and draw vol% and close below 0.55 and vol% below 0.20 and rsi(2) below 5
and date offset is 5
]




mika
131 posts
msg #29537
Ignore mika
10/28/2003 10:15:53 PM

?!?

If you chart the (back dated) results you'll find that most often than not, they are on the cusp of going up. But waiting for green "confirmation" is always the prudent thing to do, regardless.


MODERATOR
28 posts
msg #29542
Ignore MODERATOR
10/29/2003 12:02:35 AM

This message has been removed by StockFetcher.


MODERATOR
28 posts
msg #29544
Ignore MODERATOR
10/29/2003 4:26:41 AM

This message has been removed by StockFetcher.


JoeGrossinger
165 posts
msg #29549
Ignore JoeGrossinger
10/29/2003 10:49:31 AM

Mika, my point is that I don't think one should trust any filter that is mostly red on a 5 day offset, nor is it sound trading strategy to hop on a stock that is going down.

I don't trust any filter past 5 days because it is after all, only a scanning device with no brains and should in my view only be used for the very short term.

I realize results will change day by day, and that a filter that is all red today may be all green tomorrow. I just question the need to post a filter that back tests mostly red at the time of posting. I mean, right there you know you have a questionable product and in all likelyhood also have a questionable trading strategy.

Not to pick on you because I have posted some really pretty 90% green 5 day back tests only to have them turn mostly red later on.
Still, I think a filter ought to backtest 5 days with 90% green at the time of posting.

All of which leads me to believe the simple filters do best.
Those filters that scan for:
Oversold situations
Overbought situations if you like to short
New high situations since they tend to keep on running

I keep toying with MACD crossovers and BB breakouts but they have always shown themselves to be totally unreliable over time.

Yes, most stocks that go up show either a BB breakout or a MACD crossover or both, but what you don't see (until you run the filters for a while) are all the false signals that are generated.

What is extremely useful and hard to find are filters that are mostly or all green on a 3 day offset and do that on a consistent basis.
That is what I am concentrating on now. Lots of green on 3.

Momentum trading is great but it also means that you have to physically look at hundreds of charts a day in order to catch a stock at the bottom or top of the current wave. I don't think filters can actually catch that.




mika
131 posts
msg #29550
Ignore mika
10/29/2003 12:09:24 PM

Joe,
I think it was just bad timing, that's all. It so happened that when you did your 5 day back test the market was really crummy. No filter is going to help here if the whole market is down. If you would have done a little more investigation like I suggested you would have noticed the merits of the filter. Really, this filter is an amalgamation of several ideas/observations expressed by me and others, so it's not like it came out of thin air. Look at the *charts* for at least 20~30 different date offsets and then decide if the pattern is there.

Also,
if you have such a negative opinion of filters and such, and find them unreliable, then is SF really the place for you?




StockFetcher Forums · Filter Exchange · the best 0f the mm manipulation<< 1 2 >>Post Follow-up

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