StockFetcher Forums · General Discussion · Analysis of Stocks<< >>Post Follow-up
gocats
22 posts
msg #47171
Ignore gocats
9/26/2006 4:27:24 PM

I thought of this idea today and thought I should discuss with you all. With not much knowledge of Technical analysis, I realized that the best way for anyone to learn it is to analyze more and more stocks and look at the charts in the past. But above to understand how other more knowledgeable traders think and approach it.

So here's what we can do...
We can post a ticker and ask everyone why would (or wouldn't) you pick that stock? It doesn't need to be for today. We can post a particular date in the past and ask the same question.

So let me start it...

Why would you (or wouldn't you) have picked the stock ASPV on 11th or 12th April 2006? What do you see compelling enough to pick it at that time?

ASPV rose 17% on 13th April.


So all you GURUS....please share and bless us with your knowledge, and in this way...help us in getting a little brighter in this field.


P.S. This thread is not for any challenge of prediction of next day stock. It's just a place to learn more from the GURUS.


contrahawk
68 posts
msg #47177
Ignore contrahawk
9/26/2006 5:29:22 PM

gocats,

I'm NOT a guru. I would not have selected ASPV to trade on either day because it does not fit my trading plan. I would not have thought it interesting on 4-11 because it was a falling knife. . .it got attractive on 4-12 because it completed a bullish divergence (perhaps in many indicators but certainly) of RSI(2). Picking stocks is the easiest part of a trade, IMHO. The more difficult parts are sizing the trade, making a good entry and -- most of all -- exiting the trade.

Happy trading!

Jim


gocats
22 posts
msg #47179
Ignore gocats
9/26/2006 6:53:50 PM

Thanks Jim for your opinion!!!


TheRumpledOne
6,358 posts
msg #47180
Ignore TheRumpledOne
9/26/2006 7:53:39 PM

The more difficult parts are sizing the trade, making a good entry and -- most of all -- exiting the trade.

================================================================================

What's so difficult?

I posted a filter display that gives you position size based on your specific portfolio parameters?

Entry? Use your entry trigger(s)... Simple.

Exit? UUse your exit trigger(s)... Simple.


gruender
101 posts
msg #47185
Ignore gruender
9/27/2006 12:15:38 AM

gocats,

In your example, I do not believe that a particular indicator would have revealed to you in advance as to what happen on April 13th. There was positive divergence on price based on several indicators. In my opinion, it was the following announcement that was made on April 13th that caused this spike in price: "Form 8-K for ASPREVA PHARMACEUTICALS CORP


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

13-Apr-2006

Results of Operations and Financial Condition, Financial Statements



ITEM 2.02. RESULTS OF OPERATIONS AND FINANCIAL CONDITION.
On April 13, 2006, Aspreva Pharmaceuticals Corporation issued a press release announcing its preliminary revenues for the first quarter 2006 and revised guidance. The press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference.

The information in this Report on Form 8-K, including the exhibit hereto, shall not be deemed to be filed for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that Section or Sections 11 and 12(a)(2) of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended. The information contained herein and in the accompanying exhibit shall not be incorporated by reference into any filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission made by Aspreva Pharmaceuticals Corporation whether made before or after the date hereof, regardless of any general incorporation language in such filing.





ITEM 9.01. FINANCIAL STATEMENTS AND EXHIBITS.
(d) Exhibits:


Exhibit No. Description

99.1 Press Release entitled Aspreva Announces Preliminary Revenues for First
Quarter 2006 and Revises Guidance, dated April 13, 2006."

I think the question that should be asked is what technique would you use to exit this trade assuming that you entered it on April 13th soon after the announcement was made? The answer to this question depends very much on your "WRITTEN" trading plan that you were following when this trade occurred.

Hope you have a written trading plan? Joe






gocats
22 posts
msg #47186
Ignore gocats
9/27/2006 1:03:36 AM

Joe
I think you are right...the news would have spiked the stock. ANd no, I did not buy the stock on that day. I think I picked the wrong stock and I do not have any written trading plan for it.

Ok, how about ERS move today...more than 21% today (Sept 27th)

So why would you have picked it today or yesterday? Was there anything compelling in its chart or tech indicators?


contrahawk
68 posts
msg #47187
Ignore contrahawk
9/27/2006 2:03:46 AM

TRO says What's so difficult?

I posted a filter display that gives you position size based on your specific portfolio parameters?

Entry? Use your entry trigger(s)... Simple.

Exit? UUse your exit trigger(s)... Simple
********************************************************************************

TRO, I can't trade using your brains and balls -- or John Bollinger's, or LBR's [heh heh heh] or Jesse Livermore's -- or anyone's other than my own. A brilliant idea that has not become mine by personal research and usage can't be part of my trading plan. When I open a position and it runs against me do I drop it, hold on or add to it? Only my own statistics can tell me if holding on or adding to it would be playing the odds or hoping against hope. Similarly with positions which show a profit right from the start. . .All just MHO.

Again, I'm NOT a guru and I'm NOT above making someone else's wisdom part of my trading plan: I do employ RSI(2) as a principal tool and I'm grateful for "the little indicator that could"!

I think that a new guy can get so entranced with picking stocks, though, that he forgets that we're engaged in trading, not picking, stocks.

Jim


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