StockFetcher Forums · General Discussion · Best indicators for short-term long/short filters<< >>Post Follow-up
et5301
3 posts
msg #59754
Ignore et5301
2/18/2008 10:48:23 AM

I'm just getting started with this, but I would appreciate any help with ideas for indicators that seem to work best for determining short-term direction.

Specifically, I'm trying to create filters that would indicate a high probability of price being higher (or lower) than the current price by any amount in two weeks time. For example, a filter that would return a 75 percent probability of a stock closing at a lower price in two weeks than it closed yesterday. Indicator parameters could be tightened so that only a few results are generated per week.

I realize this is pretty general, but if anyone could tell me which indicators to start playing with, or better yet point me to some existing filters that might be useful, I would be grateful!

Thanks in advance,
Matt





rtucker
318 posts
msg #59755
Ignore rtucker
2/18/2008 11:26:25 AM

Just my two cents,

Two weeks is a longer hold/time frame than what the majority of
the filters and topics on these forums are about.

This could be a nice thread if others give their opinions.

I am constantly trying to increase my holding time and reduce trading.
My reading list now consists mainly of "trend following" methods

I need the market moving in the direction of my trade

I need a watchlist of 100-150 stocks that are currently benefitting
from stong secular trends and/or have good relative strength

I need to keep up on macro stuff and news that effect my stocks.

I need a filter that shows me a pulback; like 3 down days followed
by an up day.

I need to stay away from daytraders. (high volatility)

Well then, Hows it going you may ask ? Not very well thank-you.
But I have had my moments. Like catching a 35% move. But also
giving back 10% on another pick.

There are a many techniacal indicators such as ADX and MACD that fall
into the catagory you seek. Others can talk about these.

I realize that all of the above is stating the obvious , and what many people are trying to accomplish.

Dont want to be a cynic but filters do not do me a damn bit of good.

Good luck to you.




chetron
2,817 posts
msg #59763
Ignore chetron
2/18/2008 10:08:59 PM

RTUCKER,
TRY THIS THREAD.
http://beta.stockfetcher.com/sfforums/?q=view&tid=43990&start=0



nikoschopen
2,824 posts
msg #59764
Ignore nikoschopen
2/18/2008 10:18:18 PM

Now, c'mon, all those guys who extolled the virtue of sitting tight through thick and thin are prolly no longer around—at least they're no longer posting. I won't even bother going into all the nasty remark they made about day trading, which will only leave bad aftertaste. Got spit?

rtucker
318 posts
msg #59765
Ignore rtucker
2/19/2008 12:21:05 AM

Chetron,

Thanks, but I guess I was never inclined to believe that poster. He claimed to be a trend trader with extremely high accuracy. Maybe he was in a win steak of 5 or so with a bad drawdown to come but anyway...

The original poster requested a 75% accurate two week filter. If the market trends very stongly in the next two weeks then the long/short filters in the direction of the trend will be quite accurate.

But as Niko recently said, the market , wherever its going, rarely goes there directly so it is unlikely there is a 75% two week filter.

I believe its time for someone to step up and say.....

EWZuber
1,373 posts
msg #59771
Ignore EWZuber
modified
2/19/2008 5:11:06 AM

At the top and bottom of most every cycle is a consolidation pattern.
During a consolidation period the MARKET WILL NOT TREND.
It will bounce up and down between support and resistance.
Trying to trade this with End of Day charts is an exercise in futility.
The only way to consistently trade these patterns with success is to daytrade them.
Once the pattern support or resistance trendline is violated then the market will trend for a good while.

If you can't daytrade effectively because of PDT or just do not yet have the skill, I would suggest that you just wait until a trendline is violated on the Daily Chart and stochastics cross before using EoD charts to trade with.

StockFetcher Forums · General Discussion · Best indicators for short-term long/short filters<< >>Post Follow-up

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