StockFetcher Forums · General Discussion · Bull markets don't end when lots of stocks are hitting new highs?<< 1 2 3 >>Post Follow-up
karennma
6,831 posts
msg #86738
Ignore karennma
1/21/2010 1:34:05 PM

Jan. 20, 2010, 12:01 a.m. EST
Commentary: Bull markets don't end when lots of stocks are hitting new highs
By Mark Hulbert, MarketWatch

================================================================

PERFECT!!
Helloooo?
Uhhhh hello, Mark?
Bull Markets do end ... or at least CORRECT when hitting new highs.
And it never fails .... there's always some "guru" telling people to buy at the highs ...

GOOG to $900


"Those who don't learn from history, are doomed to repeat it"
George Santayana


Kevin_in_GA
4,553 posts
msg #86758
Ignore Kevin_in_GA
1/21/2010 6:37:39 PM

Karen:

Did you even look at the filter I posted? Take a minute or two to actually look at history, so that you can repeat what works.

I will say that it has been a very upbeat last year, but if you look at when the new highs - new lows went positive, it was a pretty good timing signal for going long

karennma
6,831 posts
msg #86769
Ignore karennma
modified
1/21/2010 10:45:32 PM

oops.
I found it!
thanks.
:>)

Edit:
ok. now i remember ...
I'm not sure I understand how to use that filter.
:>(
may be too complicated for my little pea brain.
:>(


Kevin_in_GA
4,553 posts
msg #86771
Ignore Kevin_in_GA
1/22/2010 12:11:30 AM

Now you're just playing with me.

karennma
6,831 posts
msg #86775
Ignore karennma
1/22/2010 8:16:46 AM

Kevin,
No, I'm not kidding.
You said:
"When this line crosses below 0, look out!"

You mean the osc line, correct?
It still hasn't crossed below 0.
Yet the market has dropped 400 pts in the last 2 days.
Where's the warning?
Clearly, I'm missing something ...

Kevin_in_GA
4,553 posts
msg #86790
Ignore Kevin_in_GA
1/22/2010 10:20:57 AM

This is not a short-term singal. This is one that tends to track the larger trend. Look at late 2008 and early 2009 on the oscillator. Now look at when it crosses above zero (sometime in April). After it jumps back and forth a bit it takes off and doesn't look back.

Just like the market did.

It should not be a lagging indicator, in that it does not use any MA smoothing. It just takes the day's high and lows and plots them. What it is telling me is that we are in a pullback within an uptrend, and therefore one should trade accordingly.

karennma
6,831 posts
msg #86792
Ignore karennma
1/22/2010 10:56:09 AM

Kevin_in_GA
- Kevin_in_GA 1/22/2010 10:20:57 AM

It should not be a lagging indicator, in that it does not use any MA smoothing. It just takes the day's high and lows and plots them. What it is telling me is that we are in a pullback within an uptrend, and therefore one should trade accordingly.

========================================================================

I hope you're right,'cause I'm deep under water right now.
Based on my analysis of FXI and XPP (China + US = "coupled"), I'm thinking Monday will be an up day for China, and the U.S. will follow.




karennma
6,831 posts
msg #86796
Ignore karennma
1/22/2010 11:50:09 AM

Kevin:
Ohhhhhhhhhhhh ... !
Got it!!
(my hangover finally wore off. LOL!)

THAT IS A GREAT FILTER!
Thx!
:>)


karennma
6,831 posts
msg #86802
Ignore karennma
1/22/2010 2:17:37 PM

Too bad that osc indicator doesn't work for short-term.


Kevin_in_GA
4,553 posts
msg #86834
Ignore Kevin_in_GA
1/22/2010 5:48:09 PM

How short term does it need to be?

A while back I posted a slight variant of this one:

Fetcher[

/*KEVIN'S 3rd ATTEMPT TO PICK MARKET TOPS AND BOTTOM'S*/
set{trigger, slope of Linear regression(20) indicator}
set{tvar1, sign(slope of Linear regression(20) indicator)}
set{tvar2, sign(slope of Linear regression(20) indicator 1 day ago)}

set{BUY, tvar1 - tvar2}
set{SELL, tvar2 - tvar1}
set{null,0}

draw LRI(20)
draw trigger line at 0
draw SELL on plot null
draw BUY on plot null
symlist(spy,dia,qqqq,gld,iwm,fxe)

and chart-time is 6 months
]



Basically you can put any stock in, if you are looking for holding times of several weeks (who cares how long you hold it if it keeps going up).

StockFetcher Forums · General Discussion · Bull markets don't end when lots of stocks are hitting new highs?<< 1 2 3 >>Post Follow-up

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