StockFetcher Forums · General Discussion · Cafe Boiler Room<< 1 2 3 4 >>Post Follow-up
nikoschopen
2,824 posts
msg #40834
Ignore nikoschopen
1/31/2006 10:12:20 PM

TRO,

Thx for the suggestion. But what I left out from the previous post (which you might have caught with closer scrutiny) is that the profit target had been hit. Thus I was taken out of the trade -- only prematurely. The problem is that you can never be certain that that would be the high of the day. In the case of this stock in question, AET, it headed up $2 in addition to the $1 I pocketed (which I'm not complaining).


EWZuber
1,373 posts
msg #40847
Ignore EWZuber
2/1/2006 3:47:01 AM

nikoschopen
No one is perfect, all we have to work with are indicators. That said I have found that there are certain patterns that re-occur over and over and they all have certain support levels to watch. They are not always what you would expect to find as support.
Using AET as an example, take a look at the pattern (candlestick chart) made on 12/07~12/12.
Support for this pattern short term (four session) trendline support(TLS) was at ~$98 on a closing basis. Note this pattern support was violated the next session then down it went. Also slow stochastics(5,5 or 5,3,3) confirmed the break from consolidation to distribution with a fast %K line cross below the slow %D line. The convergence of these two events (a break of TLS and stochastic -xover) is highly reliable as a sell signal.
Where this line(TLS) is broken I draw a horizontal line and use this as a mental stop. I use mental stops because the stock can move below this line and still remain bullish as long as it doesn't close a candlestick below this line. That goes for whatever time frame I am using be it one minute (minute chart) or one month (monthly chart).
I have found this to hold true the vast majority of the time. At worst it will force you to make a few more maintanance trades.
More recently AET has run up from 1/23 but has not broken the TLS and stochastics fast and slow lines have not even converged.
Sure it is easy to demonstrate 'after the fact' moves, everyone is a genius after the fact, but it really does work.


nikoschopen
2,824 posts
msg #40864
Ignore nikoschopen
2/1/2006 1:56:05 PM

As they say, you may spit and ---- but your half---- folly will always land you in one or the other, preferably the worst of the two. So the polymorphous perversion of the day is that there's a time to sit tight through all the noise and there's a time to bail out without having to offer ure head in exchange. I seemed to experienced them simultaneously today. The seismic magnitude of my blunder is that having lost my opportunity to triple my money yesterday, I decided to sit tight regardless of where the damn thing would go. so I bought AET at the open and rode it all the way to the zenith only to see it give back half of the gain. Knowing I lack the resolve to wait patiently for this monster to pull itself by the shoestring, I'm strongly inclined to trash it. On the other hand, I bought BSX yesterday hoping & praying that there would be a follow through. Lo & behold (as if one should be surprised here) I got what I wanted. But instead of getting out with a profit, I held on with stubbornness knowing that I would otherwise be duped out of my rightful gain. As a consequence, I lost a teenie -- thanks in part to my unstinting admiration for that priceless tautology.



nikoschopen
2,824 posts
msg #40870
Ignore nikoschopen
2/1/2006 3:38:53 PM

EWZuber,

I appreciate ure concerns and comments. With regarding to ure suggestions, I can unabashedly admit that I have been there and done that. What lies at the core of the problem isn't the trading system but my fickle mind dutifully spoon-fed by naked fantasies in grand proportion.


EWZuber
1,373 posts
msg #40872
Ignore EWZuber
2/1/2006 5:48:56 PM

nikoschopen
I managed to sign up at MSN stock board and was able to post a chart complete with trendlines, indicators and annotations.I imported the chart to a paint program, added the notations and saved it as a JPEG.

This is a sample of my trading discipline I posted for a member of the Raging Bull QQQ board. A picture is worth a thousand words.
Maybe we should open up a Stockfetcher board there to trade charts?
http://groups.msn.com/QQQBoardMembers/general.msnw?action=get_message&mview=0&ID_Message=120


nikoschopen
2,824 posts
msg #40877
Ignore nikoschopen
2/1/2006 9:30:08 PM

It's somewhat unfortunate (and equally stupid) that we have to use outside services to post charts, but at least we can discuss things that otherwise would get lost in translation. Thanks for the post.


nikoschopen
2,824 posts
msg #40896
Ignore nikoschopen
2/2/2006 11:46:57 AM

Just when you think the market is given another lease (or is that leash) on life, the damn thing craters. I'm sitting pretty with losses but my stupidity encourages me to sit tight (as if some miracle would eventually pull me out). Don't worry, I have my stops in order. Oh well, just another day in another chapter in my fated-to-win life, so methinks. BTW, doesn't Dow Jones look as if it's forming the right shoulder of a head & shoulders pattern?

Here's a parting shot for y'all: Emotions that once galvanized idiots usually fade into irrelevance.


nikoschopen
2,824 posts
msg #40900
Ignore nikoschopen
2/2/2006 12:22:46 PM

Am I the only one making this observation? For the past week or so, most of the stocks that I was kicking around made their intraday low at around 11:30 and rallied thereafter. A boneheaded rambling or an earth shattering discovery?


nikoschopen
2,824 posts
msg #40903
Ignore nikoschopen
2/2/2006 1:48:06 PM

Initial claims and productivity both came in under par. But these economic stats are not among other heavyweights of their class. So what's the real cause of today's selloff? (Or am I just barking up the wrong tree as usual?)


jclaffee
81 posts
msg #40916
Ignore jclaffee
2/2/2006 3:13:36 PM

Hi, nikoschopen. . .

Re: yr post of 2/2, 1222:46 My observations, over a considerable period, lead me to believe that the extremes of the day are put in in the first and last hours. It is my opinion that one never wants to be WITH the movement of the first hour; be against it or be on the sidelines, but don't be with it. I do NOT have data to support either of these statements. Keep an eye on things and see if your observations tend to agree with mine.

Jim


StockFetcher Forums · General Discussion · Cafe Boiler Room<< 1 2 3 4 >>Post Follow-up

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