StockFetcher Forums · General Discussion · Correlation With Market Opening<< >>Post Follow-up
SFMc01
272 posts
msg #54421
Ignore SFMc01
8/28/2007 4:57:44 PM

I'm somewhat new to all of this trading stuff and I'm trying to understand whether there seems to be some correlation between what has happened in the overall market ... maybe 15 minutes or so after opening ... and what it does, in general, later on. For example, has it been anyones observation that if the market is down after the first 15 minutes, it is likely to be down after 3 hours? Or, something like this example? All of this is with the understanding that "big news" can reverse the market, whatever direction it is going in.

Anyone ever heard of some "study" of this?

Thanks ... Steve

nikoschopen
2,824 posts
msg #54423
Ignore nikoschopen
8/28/2007 5:19:24 PM

It's usually the last 30-minutes of the day that will dictate the market direction for the following day. If the market or the stock closed up strongly at the day's high, there will likely be a follow through to the upside the next day. If it closed at the lower end, it will most likely sell off the next day. If that's any indication, the "correlation" should be made between the last 30-minutes of the prior close and the first 30-minutes of the day as opposed to the first 15-minutes and the rest of the day. If there's a smooth rollover between the two, then you can expect the market to continue in the prevailing trend. However, if the market reverses course in the first 30-minutes even though it closed up strongly on the previous day (like this Monday), the probability of carrying the market higher is slim to none.

Just my useless 2-cents.

fokane
74 posts
msg #54429
Ignore fokane
modified
8/29/2007 8:21:30 AM

It is talked about briefly at the link below but there might be more study on it elsewhere in the blog, I haven't gone through it all.
http://filteringwallstreet.blogspot.com/2006/07/quick-tip-1_01.html

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