StockFetcher Forums · General Discussion · DJI<< 1 2 3 4 5 ... 7 >>Post Follow-up
johnpaulca
10,080 posts
msg #64891
Ignore johnpaulca
7/11/2008 3:26:54 PM

The reversal...I hope it will stick.

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johnpaulca
10,080 posts
msg #64953
Ignore johnpaulca
7/13/2008 7:30:50 PM

Weekend Stock Market Analysis

(7/12/08)

The market is acting much like the period from 2000-2002 which was a very bearish period for the market. Although fear picked up some this week especially on Friday it still hasn't reached a level as of yet to signal a bottom even though the S&P 500 has closed lower 7 out of the past 8 weeks. Looking at the Volatility Index (VIX) the last four significant oversold rallies (points A to B) occurred as the VIX rose above the 30 level (points C). The VIX is getting close to the 30 level but so far hasn't risen above it.

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Another thing that does indicate a bottom could be approaching is the fact that the NYSE Composite closed just over 1000 points below its 200 Day Moving Average (MA) on Friday. This is a rare event and since 2001 each time the NYSE has closed 1000 points or more below its 200 Day MA (points D) a significant oversold bounce has developed within 5 trading days (points E to F). Thus the odds would favor a possible bottom occurring sometime next week if past history repeats itself.

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Meanwhile the % difference between the Bullish and Bearish Investment Advisors is now -20% which is an extreme level. Since the mid 1990's each time the % difference has dropped below -10% (points G) this has been followed by an oversold rally (points H to I) within 1 to 3 weeks.

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As far as the major averages the Dow has failed to hold support at its longer term 38.2% Retracement Level (calculated from the October 2002 low to the October 2007 high). The Dow's next major support area appears to be at its 50% Retracement Level near 10700 (point J) so if it drops back to this level next week then we could see a potential bottom occur at this level.



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Source: amateur-investor.net


johnpaulca
10,080 posts
msg #64979
Ignore johnpaulca
7/14/2008 10:25:23 AM

DJI... buy warning if we stay below the signal line(green line), break below pink support line would be a safe buy signal.

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maxreturn
745 posts
msg #64980
Ignore maxreturn
7/14/2008 10:43:58 AM

Top shelf analysis JP. Thanks for sharing.

johnpaulca
10,080 posts
msg #65020
Ignore johnpaulca
7/15/2008 10:30:53 AM

VIX....30.75...extreme fear...hope we get the reversal soon...added to my positions today...buy when ya see blood in the street....good luck guys.

johnpaulca
10,080 posts
msg #65021
Ignore johnpaulca
7/15/2008 10:36:28 AM

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johnpaulca
10,080 posts
msg #65023
Ignore johnpaulca
7/15/2008 11:10:43 AM

Just like clockwork...reversal in progress...now we get some short covering? I shorted the market short TWM, it's falling like a ton of bricks.

johnpaulca
10,080 posts
msg #65030
Ignore johnpaulca
7/15/2008 4:58:50 PM

^XOI...Amex oil index. My timing indicator. The circles I have drawn on the chart is where you should expect a reversal.

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marine2
805 posts
msg #65047
Ignore marine2
7/16/2008 3:20:00 PM

Nice chart John. The line you have drawn in magenta on your chart is, this where you feel the support will be? Then, at that time this index price will bounce back up? I am assuming, it will by the consistancy of your chart here.

johnpaulca
10,080 posts
msg #65051
Ignore johnpaulca
7/16/2008 4:29:51 PM

Marine2;

I am expecting a reversal soon...I also added this D2 indicator to look for divergence. Please note these are weekly charts.

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