StockFetcher Forums · General Discussion · DOW WATCH ... new low everyday<< 1 2 3 4 >>Post Follow-up
machismo
115 posts
msg #87827
Ignore machismo
2/4/2010 5:38:42 PM

If one is short then I don't see why they should'nt be happy about this downturn, after all it's all speculation and market have to move both ways. But it does not mean one is right about where dow or s&p "should be".

a24ali
15 posts
msg #87861
Ignore a24ali
modified
2/5/2010 5:11:45 PM

What happened in the last 1/2hr today??? that was huge swing for no apparent reasons.

Kevin_in_GA
4,553 posts
msg #87862
Ignore Kevin_in_GA
2/5/2010 5:26:08 PM

If one is short then I don't see why they should'nt be happy about this downturn, after all it's all speculation and market have to move both ways. But it does not mean one is right about where dow or s&p "should be".
+++++++++++

"if one is short ..." - and how many Americans can go short in their 401k?. This is my point. I agree that opportunity exists for those who can take actions, but I also realize that this can be a crushing blow for many people who have no option to switch sides.

The type of joyful glee exhibited over this type of occurance is not appropriate. Trade what you see, but with a perspective that also includes the impact this has on others.

a24ali
15 posts
msg #87864
Ignore a24ali
2/5/2010 5:38:23 PM

This is natural correction of the market that was way over due. Maybe we will see the low 9000 or even 8000 (Fib. 61.8 retracement) but i dont think it is going back to the lows of last March..

Kev, looking at it from the bright site, this will give us more opportunities to get into the market again at lower price and ride the next wave.


machismo
115 posts
msg #87866
Ignore machismo
2/5/2010 5:54:23 PM

@Kevin_in_GA:- I am naturally bullish, and I don't go short, so this downturn has been anything but nice for me personally. In regards to people's 401K being effected, sure its tough to see your nest egg go down by 5,10,20% in matter of months that you take years to build, but market does not care about you, me or any 401K's. Also most people in their 401k get years of employer contribution too, which investor, traders don't.

maxreturn
745 posts
msg #87869
Ignore maxreturn
modified
2/5/2010 6:24:57 PM

Kevin, I hear you regarding 401-k's and I have the same empathy for those who have been brainwashed by the "buy and hold" philosophy. This is whey for years now I've been telling anyone (inside and outside my workplace) about a simple way to decide when to be in mutual funds and when not to be. The 40 week EMA works very well for this purpose. When prices rally above it and the EMA follows be in mutual funds. When prices decline below it and the EMA follows be out. My method includes a few more rules to get in and out even earlier but for MOST people who do not have the will to do in-depth analysis this is enough.

While I still have empathy for those who've lost so much there really is no excuse for those who continue to remain ignorant and lose 20, 30, 40% and more on their investments. We live in an information age now. By following a simple timing model they can move their money into a money market fund when the time is right and avoid such catastrophic losses.

karennma
6,831 posts
msg #87870
Ignore karennma
2/5/2010 6:34:32 PM

Kevin_in_GA
- Kevin_in_GA 2/5/2010 5:26:08 PM
and how many Americans can go short in their 401k?. This is my point. I agree that opportunity exists for those who can take actions, but I also realize that this can be a crushing blow for many people who have no option to switch sides.
The type of joyful glee exhibited over this type of occurance is not appropriate.
=================================================================================

Kevin:
Your criticism is displaced.
First of all, NO ONE HERE has ever expressed joy over OTHER PEOPLE LOSING MONEY.
Frankly, I seriously doubt that anyone on this board could be that vicious.
In fact, I'm surprised that YOU, of all people would even entertain such a morbid thought!
If anything, there's joy over being able to trade the volatility (at LOWER prices).
I don't think anyone here is demented enough to "hope" .. or find happiness in someone else's loss. We're all too busy trying to MAKE MONEY!!
Just yesterday, I commented on a heartbreaking post written by poster "ham" who bailed 3-05-09 ... at the bottom.
He gave up,and never posted again. .. AND missed the run from 3-09-10 to January 2010.
(see his post under "Charlie Reese", and my comment under "$29K Optionshouse account")
I KNOW how heartbreaking financial loss is.
Have you ever lost a million dollars? What about $2 million?
I have!! And let me tell you, it's NOT funny.
Financial loss is NOT cause for celebration.

Second, markets go up and markets go down. PERIOD!
Third, most 401K's have a "cash" option. You can either hold stock OR cash in a 401K.
Fourth ... repeat #2.
This is not the "end of the world". Markets go up ... and markets go down.
That's why we're not @ DOW 30,000 ...
And at the rate America's going, you may never see DOW 30,000 in YOUR lifetime.

Cheer up.
Life goes on.


Kevin_in_GA
4,553 posts
msg #87873
Ignore Kevin_in_GA
2/5/2010 6:54:04 PM

I KNOW how heartbreaking financial loss is.
Have you ever lost a million dollars? What about $2 million?
I have!! And let me tell you, it's NOT funny.
Financial loss is NOT cause for celebration.
++++++++

My point exactly. I usually don't belabor topics like this, so I'll stop.

Good luck trading to everyone.

trendscanner
265 posts
msg #87881
Ignore trendscanner
2/5/2010 8:28:31 PM

The people that perhaps should feel the most shame right now are Cramer and Kudlow. I sometimes listen to their shows on the radio as I'm driving home from work in the evening and 3 to 6 weeks ago, these shameless stock shills were screaming about what a great time this was to get IN to the market, that the big rally of 09 was telling the truth about the economy and that everything was fine, fine fine and the gloom and doomsters were wrong, the recovery was in full bore, stay long, etc etc. They went on and on, endlessly, about what a great rally this was and how you didn't want to left behind so get in now.

For those who have been simply riding out the Nov 08 through Mar 09 plummet and have stayed fully vested in the market, the 09 rally was a gift, so this latest pullback is not a big deal for them, they're still well above where they were in Mar 09. Who knows, perhaps many average people who did this are taking profits now and getting out. The only people that have lost a lot of money in this recent pullback are people who entered long at the end of 09 or early 2010. Unless they entered recently and did so leverage to the hilt, they haven't lost a whole lot of money yet.

And who knows, the biggest rally yet might be right around the corner. Seems unlikely but the market is very unpredictable.

dickysofa
63 posts
msg #87882
Ignore dickysofa
2/5/2010 8:38:42 PM

For people who can't short in their 401K's almost all plans allow purchase of ETF's so you can always purchase the short leveraged ETF's. Saved me a buttload of $$ over the past 2 years...

SDS, DXD QID are your friends


And as to the markets falling...

9 months of drunken sailor market rises - traders & investors have learned nothing in the past few years.

Econ101, markets can't rise forever. This is the nature of capitalism. I've made it my mission to educate as many friends and relatives as i can about how this stuff really works so that their retirement accounts never bleed out again.

--richard

StockFetcher Forums · General Discussion · DOW WATCH ... new low everyday<< 1 2 3 4 >>Post Follow-up

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