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Kevin_in_GA
4,544 posts
msg #82435
Ignore Kevin_in_GA
11/4/2009 4:20:58 PM

As to STEC, I would first look for a close over previous close as a confirmation that the stock can rebound.

No actual money was harmed in the making of this thread.

medowz
59 posts
msg #82440
Ignore medowz
11/4/2009 5:52:27 PM

Hindsight report. Just checked the STEC Nov 22.5 Strangle on TOS Thinkback. Sold for 4.35 on 30 Oct and Closed today at 8.45! couldashouldawoulda...

crunkle
54 posts
msg #82441
Ignore crunkle
modified
11/4/2009 6:01:55 PM

Kevin,

I've found that a close over the previous day's HIGH is a more reliable turnaround indicator, same goes for a close below the previous day's LOW as a good indication a stock is rolling over - also works as a good exit point for swing trades.
For example. one that popped up on my scans this evening as a long - and also closing above the previous day's high is NRG. Looks to be bouncing off support with resistance about 10% higher. No guarantees, but I'll watch the open tomorrow. I do this for real and have a rule to try to avoid opening a position in the first 30 minutes or so. Ditto for MIR.

Eman93
4,659 posts
msg #82459
Ignore Eman93
11/4/2009 11:19:14 PM

Most likely revenues were down and forward outlook flat or lower than 2008 or 09....

That the problem with this qurter is no rev growth and no forward looking growth in rev or earnings...... the price needs to reflect the future earnings........ in a nut shell expectations built into the price for 2010 are too high for what the companys are forcasting......

So you take their forward earnings projections and use a factor of 9 or 10 or that companys historcal PE and you get a price....

Its all about info and guidence from these companys looking forward.....thats why GS sells off and AAPL hangs

The market does not care what you did last Qtr only what you are doing next Qtr and next year........

Thats why it looks like good news is being sold......thats all they report in the news is whats on the earinings statment and that is last Qtr... you need to listen to the call to get the forward looking stuff...... or just watch the chart.....



Eman93
4,659 posts
msg #82460
Ignore Eman93
11/4/2009 11:26:20 PM

STEC (STEC:...) , which makes solid-state drives [SSD] and other data-storage products, watched its shares fall more than $8.29 to $14.86 after the company said EMC Corp. (EMC:...) would carry over its 2009 inventory into 2010. The move is seen as a potential blow to STEC's (STEC:...) first-quarter earnings and sales next year.

Here is the bad news that was sold

Eman93
4,659 posts
msg #82461
Ignore Eman93
11/4/2009 11:36:11 PM

Its in there.......... but no real number for 2010 was given.... looks like they are saying 0.50 to 0.53 for 4qtr...but this other part will hit 2010 and are unsure of the impact????........com'on man......



STEC Announces Third Quarter 2009 Results
Revenue and EPS Exceed Previously-Provided Guidance 11/03 04:05 PM



SANTA ANA, Calif., Nov. 3, 2009 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- STEC, Inc. (STEC:...) announced today its financial results for the third quarter ended September 30, 2009. Revenue for the third quarter of 2009 was $98.3 million, an increase of 54.3% from $63.7 million for the third quarter of 2008, and an increase of 13.8% from $86.4 million for the second quarter of 2009. GAAP gross profit margin was 49.7% for the third quarter of 2009, compared to 32.1% for the third quarter of 2008 and 50.0% for the second quarter of 2009. GAAP diluted earnings per share from continuing operations was $0.47 for the third quarter of 2009, compared to $0.02 for the third quarter of 2008, and $0.38 for the second quarter of 2009.
Non-GAAP gross profit margin was 49.8% for the third quarter of 2009, compared to 34.1% for the third quarter of 2008 and 50.1% for second quarter of 2009. Non-GAAP diluted earnings per share from continuing operations was $0.50 for the third quarter of 2009, compared to $0.10 for the third quarter of 2008, and $0.42 for the second quarter of 2009. GAAP results for the third quarter of 2009 included employee stock compensation and special charges related to the implementation of our restructuring plan. Non-GAAP results are explained and reconciled to GAAP results in tables included in this release.
Additional highlights for the third quarter of 2009 include:


* Delivered the Enterprise-Storage industry's first Flash SSD
with next-generation 6Gb SAS interface;
* First-to-market with Enterprise-ready MLC NAND Flash-based SSD;
* Significantly improved the performance of our high-end ZeusIOPS
product line increasing Read IOPS to 80,000 (from 52,000) and
Write IOPS to 40,000 (from 17,000);
* Announced adoption of ZeusIOPS SSDs into the latest major
Enterprise-Storage OEM customer, LSI;
* Integrated MACH8IOPS SSDs into IBM's system servers
representing a key push into major Enterprise-Server OEM
applications;
* Collaborated with IBM to set a new Storage Performance Council
(SPC-1) record of 300,993.85 IOPS for high-end Enterprise-
Storage utilizing ZeusIOPS SSDs in IBM'sPower 595 system;
and
* Increased cash, cash equivalents and short-term
investments at the end of the third quarter of 2009 to
approximately $133 million, a 42% sequential increase.

Business Outlook
"I am very pleased to share with you, our exceptional results for the third quarter of 2009," said Manouch Moshayedi, STEC's (STEC:...) Chairman and Chief Executive Officer. "Our solid operating results, the strengthening of our balance sheet and the further integration of our SSDs into our customers' platforms leave us in a great position to address the growth opportunities and challenges that lie ahead. Despite a sluggish economy, we believe our growth through the end of the year will continue."
"One of our customers entered into a $120 million supply agreement with us for shipments covering the second half of 2009. We recently received preliminary indications that our customer might carry inventory of our ZeusIOPS at the end of 2009 which they will use in 2010. In light of this development, we have jointly initiated a strategic sales and marketing incentive program designed to promote the integration of STEC's (STEC:...) SSDs into their systems. As of September 30, 2009, we have accrued $1.5 million of estimated costs for this marketing incentive program. Both companies believe that we will be successful in increasing the pace of the replacement of HDDs with SSDs. If our marketing program is not successful in increasing the demand flow of SSDs, our first quarter of 2010 orders from this customer will be negatively affected; however, the actual impact cannot be quantified at this time.
"We are also working on implementing sales and marketing incentive programs at our other major customers to further proliferate the use of our SSDs in their systems. We believe that it is just a matter of time before these customers become more significant to our overall sales of SSDs. In addition, we continue to qualify our ZeusIOPS into new platforms at our customers and are working closely with them to promote integration of SSDs into their systems by participating in sales conferences and end-user training programs both in the U.S. and in Europe. We believe these activities will help accelerate the adoption of our SSDs over the course of 2010.
"Longer-term, we believe that SSDs in the Enterprise market are here to stay and will grow to become a very significant market within the next five years. Further, we believe that as this market grows, there will be room for a few additional players and that STEC (STEC:...) will remain the dominant player in Enterprise-class SSDs."
Guidance
"We currently expect fourth quarter of 2009 revenue to range from $101 million to $103 million (net of $2.4 million of estimated reserves related to sales and marketing incentive programs) with diluted non-GAAP earnings per share to range from $0.51 to $0.53."
Conference Call
STEC (STEC:...) will hold an open conference call to discuss results for the third quarter of 2009. The call will take place today at 1:30 p.m., Pacific/ 4:30 p.m., Eastern. The call-in numbers for the conference are 877-419-6591 (United States and Canada) and 719-325-4843 (International).
Webcast
This call will be webcast. The webcast can be accessed by clicking on the gray "Nasdaq:STEC" tab at the top of the home page at www.stec-inc.com. The webcast will be archived and available for replay beginning approximately two hours after the live call concludes.
About STEC, Inc. (STEC:...)
STEC, Inc. (STEC:...) designs, manufactures and markets enterprise-class solid state drives, or SSDs, for use in high performance storage and server systems, and high density dynamic random access memory, or DRAM, modules for networking, communications and industrial applications. For information about STEC (STEC:...) and to subscribe to the Company's "Email Alerts" service, please visit our web site at www.stec-inc.com, click the "Nasdaq:STEC" tab at the top of the page and then click "Email Alerts."
The STEC, Inc. (STEC:...) logo is available at http://www.globenewswire.com/newsroom/prs/?pkgid=1079
Use of Non-GAAP Financial Information

karennma
6,827 posts
msg #82483
Ignore karennma
modified
11/5/2009 11:24:02 AM

** STEC ** @ $14.39
Nov 15.00 calls @ 0.80 - Opn Int = 4,952
Nov 15.00 Puts @ 1.40 - Opn Int = 3,636

I'll check back near options expiration and see how we do.


Edit:
The immediate problem I see with even trading a spread is LACK OF VOLATILITY in this stock.
If this stock only moves up 0.50 cents in the next 2 weeks (bringing the price of the stock to $15.oo), you will lose your money on BOTH the call and the put.
So, hypothetically, at a strike price of $15.oo, if the stock moves to $15. .. you lose on both the call and the put ...
UNLESS, instead of buying the C & Ps, you SOLD the C &Ps. In that case, you'd keep the premium for both positions.
SELLING the options may be the best strategy on a less volatile stock.


2 B revisited in 2 weeks.
(don't let me forget!)
:>)


karennma
6,827 posts
msg #82485
Ignore karennma
modified
11/5/2009 11:32:51 AM

medowz
- medowz 11/4/2009 5:52:27 PM
Hindsight report. Just checked the STEC Nov 22.5 Strangle on TOS Thinkback. Sold for 4.35 on 30 Oct and Closed today at 8.45! couldashouldawoulda...

=================================================================

Just for clarification on the long "straddle" ...

B Nov. 22.50 STEC put @ 2.50
B Nov. 22.50 STEC call @ 2.50

S Nov. 22.50 STEC put @ 8.45
Net gain = $3.45


karennma
6,827 posts
msg #82504
Ignore karennma
11/5/2009 3:48:39 PM

AIG
AIG
AIG
you've got 10 minutes to decide ... calls or puts!


johnpaulca
11,296 posts
msg #82506
Ignore johnpaulca
11/5/2009 3:59:27 PM

Calls

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