StockFetcher Forums · General Discussion · Find the next NTRI<< 1 2 3 4 >>Post Follow-up
EWZuber
1,373 posts
msg #39842
Ignore EWZuber
1/1/2006 9:50:17 AM

By the way,TIE went from about $1 to about $75 dollars over the next 2 years.


heypa
283 posts
msg #39843
Ignore heypa
1/1/2006 1:07:46 PM

EWZUBER. You have some nice examples scattered through a number of years. I wonder if you located these in real time or by a work backwards review. My hats off to you if you indead found them in real time and held to the top through the long flat periods. Seems to me that a massive amount of time would have to be spent searching the universe of technicals and fundimentals to find these reversals in real time.Bottom picking and long term hold is risky activity.Why not look at a series of volitile stocks making new lows and jump on those that start up--dump the ones that return to their previous losing ways---and keep those that continue going up with a medium to loose follow stop. Fundimentals appear to be important but who can believe them(remember some of the recent scandals?) I prefer to believe the chart is more representative and it certainly gives you real time information. I still believe that compounding is an easier way than trying to predict the infrequent flyers.The ancient merchandising method of buy markup and sell and do it over and over again is too popular not to be profitable.


EWZuber
1,373 posts
msg #39855
Ignore EWZuber
1/1/2006 6:56:40 PM

heypa,I found most of these stocks to use as examples just to illustrate my point.
One that I did find very near the beginning of it's move was MEM I believe it was at the beginning of 2003 at under $0.20,it went to about $3. Again fundamentals were just beginning to turn around while the Quarterly Chart was extremely oversold. Also found WGAT and posted it here on SF a couple years ago at $0.47. The post nailed the exact bottom to the penny using this system. It went to about $7.
There is no more inherent danger or risk in holding long term outside of earnings announcements compared to holding any stock overnight. If the stock trades options then put options can be bought as insurance for holding over earnings reports. One time I bought a stock just before the close. That session it tested long term trendline support and it held. I had only held the position about 1 hour and was in the money at the close. Immediately after the close they announced that they lost their biggest client. The stock dropped -60% at the next day's open. The only way to minimize these risks is to daytrade (even then stocks get halted during market hours) or buy protective puts on all long positions (can't do that on real low priced stocks). I have a technical charting system in place to maintain long term positions. The length of time the stock is held is determined by the charts.
When the position is first entered (I like to enter any position using daytrading techniques) I will enter it using the 5 minute or 1 Hour Charts. A supporting trendline is immediately created. If the 5 minute chart trendline support (TLS) or pattern support holds for 2 hours then I now have a supporting trendline on the Hourly Chart. If that holds as support for two days then I will have a TLS or pattern support on the Daily Chart. If that holds for two weeks I now have a TLS or pattern support on the Weekly Chart. This can be extended on to Monthly Charts, etc. This way the position can mature while maintaining a money managmnent discipline. It is not buy and hold. So it won't matter if the fundamentals are believable or not because I'm using the same technical discipline to enter and exit the position as I would for a purely technical play. The fundamentals just add momentum to your position.

I have found examples in real time using stockfetcher but it was incidental to looking for shorter term positions. I can only use Daily and Weekly Charts on SF and using a screen to find oversold Weekly and Daily stocks I always manually check the Monthly Chart stochastics as I won't go long if the stock is in distribution on the Monthly Chart. It is during some of these checks that I find these stocks with long term potential. BigCharts.com displays the reported EPS on the chart so I don't have to look up the fundamentals to get the gist of what is happening. IF the EPS looks promising then I will delve deeply into the fundamentals on SmartMoney.com.
If SF offered Monthly and Quarterly screening parameters finding these would be a cinch.

I'm not saying this is the ultimate way to maximize gains or the best way to run a portfolio, it is just another tool. My goal is to have several long term positions and daytrade the remainder of my portfolio's capitol. I'm a daytrader at heart.



heypa
283 posts
msg #39856
Ignore heypa
1/1/2006 7:05:54 PM

EWZUBER Thanks for the explanation.I was worried that my comments might be taken as over the line. m heypa


Stocksight
33 posts
msg #40592
Ignore Stocksight
1/22/2006 3:37:18 PM

Avery,
Thank you for your contribution of this filter. Could you please clarify the HiOp Polo variables? I don't see them used in any function, equation or display option. Good trading.

/* PRICE POSITION PERCENT DISPLAY */

/* enter your Upper Limit criteria */
set{Upperlimit, high 52 week high}

/* enter your Lower Limit criteria */
set{LowerLimyr, low 52 week low}

set{LimDiffyr, Upper limit minus LowerLimyr}
set{PPDiffyr, CLOSE minus LowerLimyr}
set{PPDivyr, Pdif / LimDiffyr}
set{PPPyr, PPDivyr * 100}

set{PCTYR, LimDiffyr / LowerLimYr}

/* column display */

add column PPPyr

set{HiOp,high - open}
set{Polo, open - low}

Puppy is between 40 and 60

PCTYR above 2

add column Puppy
add column PCTYR



TheRumpledOne
6,358 posts
msg #40593
Ignore TheRumpledOne
1/22/2006 4:41:04 PM

set{HiOp,high - open}
set{Polo, open - low}

LOL... Polo should be OpLo for Open - Low... set{OpLo, open - low}

These are display columns that show how much you would have made if you went long/short at the open and sold at the high/low of the day... in other words, the potential profit.

HTH.




markcrisp
187 posts
msg #40659
Ignore markcrisp
1/24/2006 8:20:53 AM

Hey...well it was a full moon the day TIE started it's run up...maybe that is the clue? Prorbably better than Stochastics/ MACD etc...what a waste. May as well flip a coin. you might get lucky but I doubt it.

I suspect this is true....looking for indicators to predict these move is a fruitless exercise..but many seem happy to try it: How many rode TIE and NTRI for 200%+ profits....HELLO, HELLO.....:-)
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EWZUBER. You have some nice examples scattered through a number of years. I wonder if you located these in real time or by a work backwards review


nikoschopen
2,824 posts
msg #40666
Ignore nikoschopen
1/24/2006 1:37:52 PM

AKS is about to move out of its 6-month doldrum. Although it's not out of the wood yet, volume is up over 600% from its 100-day average volume. And there's still 2 1/2 hours left to go.


EWZuber
1,373 posts
msg #40672
Ignore EWZuber
1/25/2006 4:59:35 AM

markcrisp
I've heard that all before. You don't believe it is possible because you have not been able to figure it out. It's a natural conclusion,I used to think the same thing.
If what you say is true then tell me how I did this,

"By;65degn, 18 Nov 2005, 10:42 AM EST Msg. 954559 of 954854
Steve, I don't think this is done. I suspect Q's will test 43.

I posted that 2 months before the fact. Q's just tested resistance at 43.31 nine sessions ago.

Or this,

"By;65degn, 19 Sep 2005, 03:08 PM EDT Msg. 944394 of 944425
Todays action in the COMP could have long term implications. The 4 1/2 month TLS is being broken today. The index needs to pull up quickly or I suspect it will move into long term distribution.(several months)
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By;usdollar2, 19 Sep 2005, 03:18 PM EDT Msg. 944398 of 944425
65, that would mean no Xmas hoopla this year ?
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By;65degn, 19 Sep 2005, 03:37 PM EDT Msg. 944406 of 944425
usdollar2, not necessarily. COMP could bounce up off of the 25 Month MA at 2000.
(Note, by Oct.the 25 MO.MA had risen to 2025 EXACTLY where the COMP bounced)
How could I have predicted this a month earlier followed by the rally I spoke of that took us to 43 that I predicted? Lucky guesses?

This conversation followed,

"By;65degn, 21 Sep 2005, 02:15 PM EDT Msg. 944944 of 944949
COMP is headed to test the 25 Month MA at ~ 2000 (and rising) at a minimum.
Longer term Quarterly Chart remains in a consolidation pattern with a bullish bias.
I am expecting the next Monthly Chart accumulation phase to break resistance at 2220." ( again EXACTLY what happened)

"By;65degn, 07 Oct 2005, 01:22 AM EDT Msg. 947748 of 947750
....We need to see a consolidation around here or we run the risk of breaking critical support at the 25 Month MA.at 37 in the Q's and 2018 in the COMP.
If these values hold during this Monthly Chart distribution phase then COMP will likely take another shot at breaking out to new 52 week highs this year."

(Support held and we did break to new 52 week highs.)

Or this,
"By;65degn, 04 Nov 2005, 04:01 PM EST Msg. 952590 of 952590
I suspect we will see stochastics,(COMP/QQQQ) which are overbought on the Daily Chart, begin to oscillate in an overbought condition driven by the accumulation phase of the Weekly Chart cycle.
Distribution will be mitigated.In other words where there would usually be distribution there will be only consolidation before the next move higher. "

Exactly what happened. The Daily Chart stochastics oscillated in an overbought condition for the entire month Nov. Distribution WAS mitigated and there was ONLY consolidations (no distribution) while the market continued to move higher. Another series of coincidences? Pretty darned detailed for a coincidence.

Or this,

"By;65degn, 15 Dec 2005, 02:45 PM EST Msg. 957033 of 957033
LUCKYJOHN, .... The stock (TMTA) hit up against the combined resistance of the 25 & 50 MO.MA's at ~$2 and bounced down. The company lately has been guiding earnings estimates lower.
The primary support currently is the 50 WK.MA at ~$1.10 but is in a slight downtrend so is not good support. I suspect the stock will close the gap at ~$1.07 then move higher for a few weeks. Thats providing the COMP does not tank.
After the gap is closed both the Daily and Weekly Chart will probably be in phase in their accumulation phases. So the move will likely be substantial. A test of TLR at $1.40 wouldn't be out of the question. ....."

TMTA dropped to $1.08 18 days later on 12/28, ( missed the bottom by a penny).On 1/19 it hit $1.50. How could I have possibly predicted these things?

I have tons of these,this is a sampling.




markcrisp
187 posts
msg #40673
Ignore markcrisp
1/25/2006 5:12:36 AM

so you did?
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You don't believe it is possible because you have not been able to figure it out. It's a natural conclusion,I used to think the same thing.
If what you say is true then tell me how I did this,



StockFetcher Forums · General Discussion · Find the next NTRI<< 1 2 3 4 >>Post Follow-up

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