StockFetcher Forums · General Discussion · Have we truly bottomed?<< 1 2 3 4 5 ... 10 >>Post Follow-up
nikoschopen
2,824 posts
msg #59230
Ignore nikoschopen
1/22/2008 11:11:08 AM

I sincerely hope that none of us in this forum experienced this sad story:
http://highprobability.blogspot.com/


Market nearly recoups all its losses. Man, I truly feel sorry for this guy.

nikoschopen
2,824 posts
msg #59244
Ignore nikoschopen
1/22/2008 3:27:41 PM



Quote from niko:

With only a week left until the next policy meeting, Bernanke would be a fool to opt for a pre-emptive slash at this point in time. The market is already pricing in a cut of 50 basis point, some as much as 75. I would be greatly surprised and shocked if Bernanke hands a 75. This would likely push the market up for the next 2 weeks at most but it will effectively kill the greenback that would hammer the market in the long run. Bernanke knows this like all astute Fed stooges, hence my belief for ONLY a 50 bp cut.



Abomination. I mean for what I said. However, while I might be a jackass for underestimating Bernanke & Co., I think history will prove me correct in the long run. What the Fed offered this morning is only a temporary fix like a drug addict in need of a quick fix. It ain't much of a solution to the real crisis out there. I say, sell the damn rally when $SPX climbs above 1350. See the above chart for reference.

maxreturn
745 posts
msg #59246
Ignore maxreturn
1/22/2008 4:45:12 PM

Agreed, this time the Fed waits a tad too long. The longer term technicals now support the fundamental picture. Methinks the SPX will rally at least a couple more days but I will be ready with my list of put candidates should it stall on lower volume and then rollover in the 1350-1375 range.

nikoschopen
2,824 posts
msg #59272
Ignore nikoschopen
1/23/2008 1:45:59 PM

Have we truly bottomed? No. Have we reached a point where the market is oversold enough to warrant a near-term bounce? Yes.

nikoschopen
2,824 posts
msg #59444
Ignore nikoschopen
2/1/2008 11:21:22 PM

Who said history doesn't repeat itself?



maxreturn
745 posts
msg #59447
Ignore maxreturn
2/2/2008 4:06:41 PM

Niko, nice charts! Word to the wise....don't get too enamored with the short term outlook. The SPX is still well below the 200 ema which has been now rolling over for quite some time. Again, very similar to the 2000 top. My guess is that the momentum and volume behind this move basis weekly and daily charts could still allow price to potentially rally into the 1400-1425 zone where the 50 ema lies in wait with the 200 ema just above.

johnpaulca
10,097 posts
msg #59457
Ignore johnpaulca
2/3/2008 4:05:20 PM

Amateur Investors

"As I mentioned above I think the major averages may retest their January 23rd lows at some point in the coming weeks. One of the reasons I think this may happen is based on the % of Bearish Investment Advisor Sentiment which still hasn't reached an extreme level. Going back to the mid 1990's when the 3 week average of Bearish Investment Advisor Sentiment has risen at or above the 35% level (points I) this has signaled a nearing bottom followed by a substantial rally (20% or more) in the S&P 500 (points J to K). Currently the 3 week average of Bearish Investment Advisor Sentiment stands at 30% so this is one reason why I think the January 23rd lows may have to be retested or even broken before a significant bottom occurs."


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EWZuber
1,373 posts
msg #59460
Ignore EWZuber
2/4/2008 2:03:24 AM

John, you may be right but I think for most swing traders this should be played as a near term bottom at the COMP 30 MO.MA.

The Weekly Chart appears to be confirming a new accumulation phase.
The Daily Chart is also in an accumulation phase and pattern support is intact. We may begin to see a slight oscillation in stochastics in overbought territory.

Longer Term however the Monthly Chart is not very oversold and the previous cycle was very extended. Consequently I would expect a consolidation pattern with a bullish bias for a couple weeks anyway.
IMO

nikoschopen
2,824 posts
msg #59465
Ignore nikoschopen
2/4/2008 12:54:25 PM

The weekly chart does in fact look bullish, but let's not forget that the tide has turned and we're in a full-fledge bear market. The latest spotlight de jour is just how long the Fed can buoy the market from tanking or, worse yet, how long we can delude ourselves in thinking that the Fed has the power to do so.

EWZuber
1,373 posts
msg #59480
Ignore EWZuber
2/5/2008 4:09:04 AM

My observations do not include any news or any possible effects on markets, they are strictly technically based.

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