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txtrapper
548 posts
msg #30505
Ignore txtrapper
1/7/2004 7:26:15 PM

CTIC was one of petrolpeter's picks, I recall taking a quick look at the stock on the 1yr/w Prophet chart and giving my positive comment, which turned out to be correct. I did not do a lot of T/A myself. I did notice that the stock had shot thru the upper BB on the 3m/d chart, which indicates a continuation. It also sprung back from it's low for the day, indicating strength. Both of his picks CTIC and SVNT appeared to be strong stocks IMO. I don't use trendlines in my T/A, price, volume plus the EMA(9) WMA(30) crossover gets me excited. It don't get no better than that IMO.

CTIC has been moving up nicely since the middle of December, the first resistance I see is about $10.67 it's high in early November, and Fast Stochastic 10,10 was shooting up on the 1y/w chart with the line "widening".

SVNT has been in an uptrend since March, and has been in a long consilidation since about the first week of November, and that's a good thing, especially an uptrending stock, according to William O'Neil it should continue in it's last direction before the consolidation. The Fast stochastic 10,10 was just getting read to cross on the 1y/w chart.

In my opinion excellent picks, and tomorrow I expect them both to move up nicely.

Tx

Zuber,

I am not sure if I was to comment or petropeter.


txtrapper
548 posts
msg #30506
Ignore txtrapper
1/7/2004 7:46:53 PM

Hot Stocks for Thursday, 1/8/2004


TRIB...$4.63 recent breakout, doing a minor correction holding on the EMA(9.
VLGC...$3.48 should bounce of the WMA(30) moving average.
ELP....$4.61 should bounce of the WMA(30) moving average.

These are strong stocks, not bottom feeding, scum sucking, RSI(2) catfish. In a recent dip, I would venture to say, that if a person bought these three stocks tomorrow at the open, green or red, set a 5% stop limit, and went to Cancun for three or four days and came back, they would still own these stocks and have a real good profit.

As Bill O'Neil says "buy high and sell higher"

I know of two ways to play this market, buy at the bottom, or buy at the top, both methods can be rewarding.

Tx


EWZuber
1,373 posts
msg #30511
Ignore EWZuber
1/7/2004 9:33:28 PM

TxTrapper, I'm glad to discuss this with whoever wants to.
Is the 'WMA' a Weekly Moving Average? If I plug in a 30 Wk. MA into Big charts or Stock Charts.com it comes out at $10.25 this week which appears to be what stopped CTIC as resistance.
I use the 25 & 50 Week MAs and the 25 WK.MA is resistance at about $10.24. The 25Wk.MA ( or 30 Wk. )was support for about a year before the recent drop in price so it would seem to be valid as resistance to be dealt with.

SVNT is an excellent example of the usefulness of trendlines. Draw a line from the low of 3/26/03 where the uptrend began across the bottom of 8/13/03 to the far right of the chart in one continuous straight line. This is the most conservative supporting trendline that can be used for our purposes. Notice that CTIC violated this TL indicating that the trend has changed. Support has become resistance. Also since Nov. 10 the trend has been down, with the 25 DMA as resistance. Notice that today it was confirmed as resistance once again as overbought stochastics (5,3) begin to converge, indicating a possible cycle top soon.
Here's another very important Trendline that is very revealing. Draw a line from the high formed on 10/3/03 to the high of 1/7/03 continue it to the far right of the chart. Here it shows us that SVNT was stopped on Jan. 5,6 & 7 by this TL resistance. I see this kind of interactivity with every stock I chart, without exception.
A comment about the pullback of this stock that I believe is not healthy, that is the fact that the pullback was a gap down, not an orderly decline. And the gap was caused by bad earnings announcement, the life blood of a stock. The gap was considerable and it was on big volume. Very bearish.
This is one aspect I like about Bigcharts is that you can select 'show earnings with value' and the correlation between earnings and stock price becomes unavoidable.
JMHO



EWZuber
1,373 posts
msg #30512
Ignore EWZuber
1/7/2004 11:11:16 PM

txtrapper
respectfully, Oneals methodology is very disciplined. He advocates buying at pivot points. That is to say within a couple percent of the exact point that a stock breaks out of a consolidation pattern like for instance a cup w/handle or inverted Head and Shoulders.

Take a 2 year chart for JBLU for instance. The stock made a high on 5/6/02 at $24.51. The stock then proceeded to form a 13 month cup with handle pattern.
The pivot point was reached on 6/6/03 forming a typical cycle top Evening Star Doji pttern as it hit up against resistance at $24.51.

From here a handle was formed as weak hands were purged from the stock just before the run begins. It was a minor pull back. A Morning Star Doji pattern marked the bottom of the handle bouncing up off the 50 DMA on 6/10/03.
The breakout above the pivot point came on 6/17/03 on less than desirable volume but it worked none the less ( Oneal likes to see at least 200% ADV or better on breakouts ). From here the uptrend becomes considerably steeper and volume on the Monthly chart picks up.
He advocates taking a position within a couple percent ( I believe he called it 1/8 of a point ) of the breakout pivot point and using an 8% stop.

TRIB looks interesting. Thanks. What did you use to find it?




txtrapper
548 posts
msg #30513
Ignore txtrapper
1/8/2004 1:15:29 AM

Zuber,


Weighted Moving Average
A Weighted moving average (WMA) attaches greater weight to the most recent data. The weighting is calculated from the sum of days.

Example: For a 5-day weighted moving average the Sum of Days is 1+2+3+4+5 = 15
The weighting is shown below:

Day
1 2 3 4 5
Price ($)
16 17 17 10 17
Weighting
1/15 2/15 3/15 4/15 5/15
Weighted value
1.07 2.27 3.40 2.67 5.67
5 Day WMA
15.07

Weighted values are calculated by multiplying today's price by 5/15, yesterday by 4/15, and so on. The weighted moving average is the sum of the 5 weighted values.


When I get through here I am going to try your trendlines from your previous post and see how it correspondes to my methods and Indicator signals.


TxTrapper




wallman
299 posts
msg #30515
Ignore wallman
1/8/2004 8:22:21 AM

ZUB, i myself picked up TRIB from my modified DARVAS box filter that has recently been redicussed this month on the SF filter exchange,it was the top volume match for today,the top 3 volume ones where TRIB RRI GTI, good luck


txtrapper
548 posts
msg #30518
Ignore txtrapper
1/8/2004 10:55:34 AM

petrolpeter

I must admit you are a stockpicker supreme, your picks are up again this morning @ 9:52AM Central Time.

CTIC...up to $9.92 a good profit taking point IMO

SVNT...up to $4.85 another nice gain.

What ever your doing just keep doing it, it's working for you. Like Muddy Wallman says keep it simple.

Please post the Filter for these excellent picks if you don't mind and share it with the other SFer's it would be appreciated.

Thanks,


TxTrapper


petrolpeter
439 posts
msg #30519
Ignore petrolpeter
1/8/2004 2:02:23 PM

Hello TXT,You have the filter,I posted it Pg.11:1-6-2003.Run that filter to 12-18-2003 and go to I think the third page of results and find CTIC there.This is where I found interest in this pick because of an accumulation of green candles with green bars,like a small party of Bulls gathering.The next day CTIC printed a hammer and at that point I put it in my watch(MedVed)list at 8.40,the close for that day.I was correct on this one as she climbed to the top of it's channel,but I also feel this should be the end of this trade unless you feel CTIC can break the top of the channel.Go to 12-15-2003 and check out ENCY,nice catch there too.Same with NUVO(visual base line of 3)and AAPL(12-22-2003),high quality and tons of volume!When I use this screen,I apply indicators that mimic price as close as possible.Those are ERSI(5,5)~Williams%R(27)and(10)~RSI(5)~Momentum(12)~Slow Stochastic(15,3)~and any filter you can find that mimics price closly.Lets take NSIT as an example which apears on the ERSI sreen on 12-19-2003.On that day the stock is resting on a straight accross visual base line and the indicators were positioned identical to the period of the end of Sep.-begining of Oct. and I had confidence would hold that baseline.The next 2 days were followed by 2 large candles and NSIT is still slowly rising,very cool.Look at the way those indicators match on the chart and found the bottom of the NSIT channel twice and the follow through to the top of that channel.


txtrapper
548 posts
msg #30521
Ignore txtrapper
1/8/2004 5:00:13 PM

petrolpeter

All I can say is that's a quality filter you have there.

Yes CTIC is riding the upper BB and that indicates pure strength, it could just keep on going up or stall at the November high, that's a decision point, just watch MACD and Stochastics, and the "big thing" to watch is if the price keeps going up and volume stays flat, that's a good time to "get out".

As long as CTIC stays above the EMA(9)and the EMA(9) is above the WMA(30) I would not sell it, it may go to the Ocotber high or higher.

Whoa! After looking at it again, see how the volume is decreasing, it about to peter out, sell time.


TxTrapper



EWZuber
1,373 posts
msg #30523
Ignore EWZuber
1/8/2004 7:40:12 PM

SVNT was commented on as a pick on 1/6 near the end of the session. The stock closed at $4.87. On the 7th it closed at $4.80 and today closed at $4.82. Believe me I don't want to steal anyones thunder but that is a slight decline from the first session not a gain. Stochastics look like they are -crossing over. Not saying it can't go higher but it wouldn't buy it. So far it has pretty much gone sideways.
CTIC looks a little better up 1.8% over the close on the 6th but it too has basically gone sideways. Only two days into the pick so no big deal. It looks to me like someone may be trying to accumulate shares at a lower price to cash in on a possible break above the Res. TL. Looking at an hourly chart one can see that this is in a Consolidating Wedge Pattern that has formed over the past 4 days. The candlestick for the final hour of todays session bounced up off of TL support and the top bounced down off of TL. Resistance that forms the pattern. If this breaks TL Resistance @ $9.80 tomorrow it will likely take off. IMO, it needs to break out tomorrow or face the possibility of forming that Evening Star Doji on the Weekly chart. It could move higher with Hourly chart Stochastics slightly oversold.
What is driving this one is the Weekly chart stochastics that are in accumulation and Monthly chart stochastics just starting a new accumulation phase. IMO, this is why the stock has not declined with overbought stochastics on the Daily chart. JMHO


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