StockFetcher Forums · General Discussion · Interesting Research<< >>Post Follow-up
gmg733
391 posts
msg #131972
Ignore gmg733
modified
10/18/2016 12:01:00 AM

Kind of proves the contrarian theory of investing (provided the data is valid and not curve fit).

http://www.dark-bid.com/how-to-avoid-being-a-retail-bag-holder.html

Fetcher[
symlist(SPY)

weekly ROC(1) is below -.49
weekly ROC(1) is above -3.01

add column weekly roc(1,1)
]



Use late Friday or during the weekend.

c1916
49 posts
msg #131985
Ignore c1916
10/18/2016 10:50:04 AM

The 2X leverage chart seems disingenuous....if you apply leverage to a "winning" program, of course the results will be even more glowing.

Otherwise, I certainly don't mind attempts to simplify entry/exit points, but this one almost seems too simple. Wouldn't it make sense to EXIT the markets if the S&P is up for the week or down more than 3% for the week if those scenarios trigger negatively over the long term? Selling (or shorting) when the signal DOESN'T trigger would seem to be the proper play as well.

Also, it isn't clear if the scenarios simply had the user buying at the open at market prices on Monday when the signal triggers, or if there was other fine tuning on the entry point.

I'd be interested in looking at raw numbers instead of a chart. For example, given the 26 year sample, that's a little over 1000 weeks. So, how many weeks generated the signal, and how many of those weeks were winners? Conversely, how many weeks generated no signal, and how many of those weeks resulted in a loss?

graftonian
219 posts
msg #132002
Ignore graftonian
10/19/2016 10:04:03 AM

Fetcher[
symlist(SPY)

SET{X1, COUNT(weekly ROC(1) is below -.49, 1)}
SET{X2, COUNT(weekly ROC(1) is above -3.01, 1)}
SET{TRIGGER, X1 * X2}
DRAW TRIGGER
add column weekly roc(1,1)
CHART-DISPLAY IS WEEKLY
CHART-TIME IS 2 YEARS
]



spauken
9 posts
msg #132009
Ignore spauken
10/19/2016 12:56:30 PM

I like simple systems, so following c1916's lead, I crunched the numbers in Excel for the last 10 years and here is what I came up with:

Total trades 140 (in market 27% of the time)
Winners 88 (62.9%)
Losers 52 (37.1%)
Total gain 38.5% or 3.85% per year

Needless to say, not very impressive over the last 10 years. 2008 was a big down year at -28.5%. All other years were positive except 2010 at -3.48.

Changing the parameters to -.25% and -2.75% yielded better results:

Total trades 157 (in market 30% of the time)
Winners 99 (63.1%)
Losers 58 (36.9%)
Total gain 65.5% or 6.55% per year
2008 was -18.1%

Still not very impressive.

On the bright side, I did enjoy the superhero video attached to one of the BTFD articles!

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